1. Forum
  2. Usenet
  3. REC.GAMES.BACKGAMMON

  • Pay now or pay later?

    From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 14 10:37:01 2022
    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Wed Sep 14 13:07:56 2022
    On Wednesday, September 14, 2022 at 10:37:03 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    I would pay later since so, so often we don't have to *pay at all. If we moved our outfield point back one pip to the 16pt then I'd pay now as it would be much harder to clear in the future.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Sep 15 09:07:12 2022
    On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |    X        O  O |   | O     O          | +---+
     |    X        O  O |   | O     O          | | 2 |
     |                  |   | O                | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
     | O  X           X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 101  O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62

    I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
    position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
    Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
    what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
    candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
    equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
    tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Sep 15 13:01:25 2022
    On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:07:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62
    I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
    position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
    Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
    what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
    candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
    equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
    tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are
    no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Sep 15 13:12:25 2022
    On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:01:26 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:07:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62
    I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
    position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
    Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
    what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
    candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
    equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
    tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.

    ---
    Tim Chow
    It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are no
    other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.

    My thinking is exactly the same as Tim's. My aim is to fill in the two point and then bring my other checkers around to beat my opponent's acepoint game, and my play is 11/5 6/4 too.
    (I opted for this play, Waltishly, before reading his post).
    I do see this as a blitz, but that's a matter of terminology. To me, a blitz is where your opponent dances a lot and you bring your checkers around while this is happening.

    But ideally, I'd like to call this a blintz. If we could call this a blintz, and I was in a chouette, I could say "Is this a position where we do blintzes?"
    Then if people said yes, I would request them, and they taste delicious.

    Therefore, this is actually a blintz.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Sep 15 22:02:44 2022
    On 9/15/2022 4:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are
    no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.



    Is your variant back one pip to the 15pt, or back two pips
    to the 16pt? (You said "back one pip to the 16pt" but the
    outfield checkers are on the 14pt.)

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Sep 15 19:37:43 2022
    On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 10:02:46 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/15/2022 4:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are
    no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.

    Is your variant back one pip to the 15pt, or back two pips
    to the 16pt? (You said "back one pip to the 16pt" but the
    outfield checkers are on the 14pt.)

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Either should do it, one more than the other obv.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 16 14:01:51 2022
    Not a lot of equity at stake here. The main idea is that X wants to make
    the deuce point so position the checkers to make that most likely.

    Whether to "pay now" by clearing the 14 point is somewhat of a red
    herring. 11/5 narrowly edges 14/8 with the 2 being played 6/4.

    I spent too much mental energy stressing over the pay now vs pay later
    decision when simply playing to fill in the board is the theme here.

    But, as Stick observes, were the rearmost point more difficult to clear
    then paying now is the right idea. XGR++ analysis of the variant
    position (relocating the checkers on the 14 to the 15) is below.




    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:+0.864
    Player: 75.85% (G:41.17% B:5.47%)
    Opponent: 24.15% (G:1.32% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.855..+0.874) - [94.1%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.854 (-0.011)
    Player: 75.67% (G:40.94% B:5.68%)
    Opponent: 24.33% (G:1.67% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.844..+0.864) - [5.9%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 14/8 11/9 eq:+0.836 (-0.029)
    Player: 75.26% (G:40.06% B:5.41%)
    Opponent: 24.74% (G:1.65% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.826..+0.845) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ 11/3 eq:+0.821 (-0.043)
    Player: 74.72% (G:39.70% B:5.20%)
    Opponent: 25.28% (G:1.60% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.812..+0.830) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

    5. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.814 (-0.050)
    Player: 74.76% (G:39.08% B:5.31%)
    Opponent: 25.24% (G:1.57% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.805..+0.823) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


    ///////////////////
    /* variant
    ///////////////////

    XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac--B-bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 103 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62

    1. XG Roller++ 15/13 15/9 eq:+0.876
    Player: 76.23% (G:39.95% B:4.72%)
    Opponent: 23.77% (G:1.14% B:0.05%)

    2. XG Roller++ 15/9 6/4 eq:+0.862 (-0.014)
    Player: 75.64% (G:39.90% B:4.99%)
    Opponent: 24.36% (G:1.32% B:0.05%)

    3. XG Roller++ 15/7 eq:+0.846 (-0.030)
    Player: 75.32% (G:39.33% B:4.70%)
    Opponent: 24.68% (G:1.34% B:0.05%)

    4. XG Roller++ 11/5 6/4 eq:+0.843 (-0.032)
    Player: 75.00% (G:39.70% B:4.94%)
    Opponent: 25.00% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)

    5. XG Roller++ 15/9 11/9 eq:+0.841 (-0.034)
    Player: 75.30% (G:38.88% B:4.74%)
    Opponent: 24.70% (G:1.31% B:0.05%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 12 09:23:49 2023
    XGID=-C-ab-FBB---b---B--bbcba--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    | O X X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Sep 12 11:23:41 2023
    On 9/12/2023 9:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-C-ab-FBB---b---B--bbcba--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |          X       |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
     |          X       |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |                  |   |       O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | 6                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X              X |
     | O           X  X |   | X     O        X |
     | O           X  X |   | X     O  O     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 101  O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    O's four point makes me want to pay later, but stacking a seventh
    checker on the six point while burying one on the deuce seems wrong.

    Her homeboard blot seems to tip it towards paying now. 16/11 16/15
    looks better than 16/10, but 8/3* 8/7 leaves fewer shots and slots a
    homeboard point. I'll do that.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MK@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Sep 14 01:35:52 2023
    On September 12, 2023 at 9:23:44 AM UTC-6, ah....Clem wrote:

    On 9/12/2023 9:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-C-ab-FBB---b---B--bbcba--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
    X to play 51

    O's four point makes me want to pay
    later, but...

    The incorrect but best play here is 8/3 6/5.

    Ex-Gee is using 32-bit Mersenne Twister RNG
    and applies modulo 6 to produce dice rolls.

    I've used "Tim's given math" "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8"
    to deduce the seed after 8-9 rolls and saw that
    Ex-Gee will roll a 61 next, with subsequent rolls
    giving you an easy gammon... ;)

    What is the matter with you? Are you too stupid
    to understand math or are you too honest..? ;)

    MK

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)