XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/13/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
 | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
 | X                |   |                  |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X             |
 |          O  X  X |   | X  X  X          |
 |          O  X  X |   | X  X  X        O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 117  O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I've found five primes to be very strong when the opponent is not at the
edge.

Here, X is not in danger of being forced to leave a shot (64 is probably
played as POH instead of 13/3), has a good chance of making the full
prime or hitting a blot as O is forced off the nine or attacking the
straggler. If the latter, gammons are a serious possibility. So ship
it for sure.

Can O take? Race lead, strong board, 62 leaps out, so looks like she
can. D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 10:06:16 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 9/13/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I've found five primes to be very strong when the opponent is not at the edge.

Here, X is not in danger of being forced to leave a shot (64 is probably played as POH instead of 13/3), has a good chance of making the full
prime or hitting a blot as O is forced off the nine or attacking the straggler. If the latter, gammons are a serious possibility. So ship
it for sure.

Can O take? Race lead, strong board, 62 leaps out, so looks like she
can. D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[21] leaves a shot, [31] leaves a shot (perhaps directly, perhaps indirectly like [64] which should definitely not be used to make the ace point). You've found five primes to be strong when the opponent isn't at the edge, and not saying this position
isn't strong, but I imagine the group of positions you're referencing you don't have the back of the prime point made so the opponent is unable to extend his prime easily and you always have an escape hatch at least for a couple of turns.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I was asleep at the switch and missed this double, but as a quiz
problem, the more interesting question IMO is whether to take or pass.
This is a delicate question, as you can see from the rollout below
of the decision I faced on the next turn.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.27% (G:10.40% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.73% (G:4.36% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.06% (G:10.77% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.94% (G:4.44% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.823 (-0.115)
Double/Take: +0.938
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.062)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.815..+0.830)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.926..+0.951)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Next turn
---------

XGID=-a--BCBBCb---C-----bbcbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 76.78% (G:10.41% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.22% (G:3.01% B:0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.86% (G:10.66% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.14% (G:3.35% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.907 (-0.093)
Double/Take: +1.135 (+0.135)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.901..+0.912)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.124..+1.147)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)