XGID=--A----------------bcbdcaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | | | 2 |
| | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
On 9/11/2022 9:31 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--A----------------bcbdcaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | | | 2 |
| | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Closed out on the bar with 12 checkers off is 84% GWC. And you have 13
off, so it's clearly D/P. She still has 15 checkers on the board, so
there is the remote chance of entering with a hit and scrambling around
the board to win a gammon. But hitting gives her a great chance to send
a second checker to the roof and hen X's winning chances go by the
wayside. So I don't think it's TG even though X will still have a cash
almost all the time next roll.
So, I"d just cash this now. 1x followed by 2x loses the game (about 10%)
and that seems more likely than the rare gammon wins for X.
R/P.
On 9/12/2022 11:14 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
On 9/11/2022 9:31 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--A----------------bcbdcaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | | | 2 |
| | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Closed out on the bar with 12 checkers off is 84% GWC. And you have 13
off, so it's clearly D/P. She still has 15 checkers on the board, so
there is the remote chance of entering with a hit and scrambling around
the board to win a gammon. But hitting gives her a great chance to send
a second checker to the roof and hen X's winning chances go by the
wayside. So I don't think it's TG even though X will still have a cash almost all the time next roll.
So, I"d just cash this now. 1x followed by 2x loses the game (about 10%) and that seems more likely than the rare gammon wins for X.
R/P.Thinking about this some more, the "closed out on the bar with N
checkers off" reference positions are for all the other checkers to be
on the ace point. With a blot to shoot at, it's probably less than with
two checkers on the ace. Since O wins by picking up another checker, we
might want to add those 10% wins to her ~15% wins to arrive at 25%. And
since exchanges of hits can happen for multiple rolls, add more than 10%
to push this into take territory.
I'd still ship it. Some will pass.
XGID=--A----------------bcbdcaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | | | 2 |
| | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
According to the rollout below (with somewhat stronger settings than
the default), the position above is RD/T. But see the two other
positions that I was faced with on subsequent rolls.
Sysop: | Keyop |
---|---|
Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
Users: | 297 |
Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
Uptime: | 13:51:31 |
Calls: | 6,667 |
Calls today: | 1 |
Files: | 12,214 |
Messages: | 5,336,557 |