XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/9/2022 8:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     O        O |   | O  O     X       |
 | X              O |   | O  O     X       |
 | X              O |   | O  O             |
 | X                |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  X        O |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  X        O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 148  O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

OTB, I'm pretty sure I'd just make the two point without much thought.
The game plan is to build the blockade and wait for an opportunity to
spring the runners. The three point may be a POS, but it's better than
the ace point.

Making the deuce point also minimizes shots, but that doesn't seem to
be the main reason to make that play. 22/16 13/9 leaves 2s, 3s, and 4s
to hit and that seems too loose. As does bringing down two checkers from
the midpoint. Maybe our anchor and the fact that we're behind in the
race is enough to justify a bold play, but I'll just make the deuce point.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 1:20:54 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:34:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Usually, I do these quizzes expecting to be wrong -- they tend to be quite difficult after all,
and I've been burned many times by my answers being wrong despite my confidence.

But this time, I find myself quite confident again, definitely expecting to be correct anyway.
Perhaps part of the reason is that I got the previous quiz right.
Also, the play is quite QF-ish.
My play is 13/9 13/7 If we're missed, we have a great game and quite possibly a strong cube.
The bad parlay isn't [being hit] but rather [being hit and failing to hit in return].
I will now calculate the probability of this bad parlay. [There's an outside chance that I'll change
my mind if this bad probability is too large.] I'm not counting my loose hits on the ace point.
Those bad outcomes are:
66 / any except 64
65/ any except 64.
Actually, I've ran out of patience, but the point is that the combo hits like 42 give me trillions
of returns.

13/9 13/7

Paul

Another important factor for my play is that many of the opponent's hitting rolls are rolls that
would have been good anyway, by making their 4 point.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:34:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Usually, I do these quizzes expecting to be wrong -- they tend to be quite difficult after all,
and I've been burned many times by my answers being wrong despite my confidence.

But this time, I find myself quite confident again, definitely expecting to be correct anyway.
Perhaps part of the reason is that I got the previous quiz right.
Also, the play is quite QF-ish.
My play is 13/9 13/7 If we're missed, we have a great game and quite possibly a strong cube.
The bad parlay isn't [being hit] but rather [being hit and failing to hit in return].
I will now calculate the probability of this bad parlay. [There's an outside chance that I'll change
my mind if this bad probability is too large.] I'm not counting my loose hits on the ace point.
Those bad outcomes are:
66 / any except 64
65/ any except 64.
Actually, I've ran out of patience, but the point is that the combo hits like 42 give me trillions
of returns.

13/9 13/7

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 8:20:54 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:34:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Usually, I do these quizzes expecting to be wrong -- they tend to be quite difficult after all,
and I've been burned many times by my answers being wrong despite my confidence.

But this time, I find myself quite confident again, definitely expecting to be correct anyway.
Perhaps part of the reason is that I got the previous quiz right.
Also, the play is quite QF-ish.
My play is 13/9 13/7 If we're missed, we have a great game and quite possibly a strong cube.
The bad parlay isn't [being hit] but rather [being hit and failing to hit in return].
I will now calculate the probability of this bad parlay. [There's an outside chance that I'll change
my mind if this bad probability is too large.] I'm not counting my loose hits on the ace point.
Those bad outcomes are:
66 / any except 64
65/ any except 64.
Actually, I've ran out of patience, but the point is that the combo hits like 42 give me trillions
of returns.

13/9 13/7

Paul

Not just 'quite possibly a strong cube'. The opp. will have to pass on many sequences. Too lazy to count them but there are plenty.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:26:49 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 8:20:54 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:34:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Usually, I do these quizzes expecting to be wrong -- they tend to be quite difficult after all,
and I've been burned many times by my answers being wrong despite my confidence.

But this time, I find myself quite confident again, definitely expecting to be correct anyway.
Perhaps part of the reason is that I got the previous quiz right.
Also, the play is quite QF-ish.
My play is 13/9 13/7 If we're missed, we have a great game and quite possibly a strong cube.
The bad parlay isn't [being hit] but rather [being hit and failing to hit in return].
I will now calculate the probability of this bad parlay. [There's an outside chance that I'll change
my mind if this bad probability is too large.] I'm not counting my loose hits on the ace point.
Those bad outcomes are:
66 / any except 64
65/ any except 64.
Actually, I've ran out of patience, but the point is that the combo hits like 42 give me trillions
of returns.

13/9 13/7

Paul

Not just 'quite possibly a strong cube'. The opp. will have to pass on many sequences. Too lazy to count them but there are plenty.

Stick

I think my usage of "possibly" is different to your interpretation.
I intended the underlying possibility as being the event that my understanding of the position is good (it appears that it is).
Whereas you interpreted "possibly" as meaning "depending on the possible sequence".

For example, someone who is unsure of snooker history might say "Alex Higgins possibly won the World Snooker Championships sometime in the eighties."
Such a person wouldn't be wrong on the basis that Alex Higgins did win it.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b--BBC-B---bD-a--cdc-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I think Paul gave a very good analysis. There a huge upside to
13/9 13/7 if X is missed. XG says that O will have to pass unless
she rolls something that allows her to hit or make her 4pt (though
she will play 24/22(2) with snake eyes), and her sixes are duplicated.
Even if O already owned the cube, XG would favor 13/9 13/7.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:+0.531
Player: 62.59% (G:19.47% B:0.99%)
Opponent: 37.41% (G:10.36% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.518..+0.544) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:+0.472 (-0.059)
Player: 60.70% (G:20.73% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 39.30% (G:10.81% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.455..+0.489) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.450 (-0.081)
Player: 60.04% (G:21.13% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 39.96% (G:10.41% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.436..+0.463) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/11/2022 5:18 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:26:49 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

Not just 'quite possibly a strong cube'. The opp. will have to pass on many sequences. Too lazy to count them but there are plenty.

Stick

I think my usage of "possibly" is different to your interpretation.
I intended the underlying possibility as being the event that my understanding of the position is good (it appears that it is).
Whereas you interpreted "possibly" as meaning "depending on the possible sequence".

For example, someone who is unsure of snooker history might say "Alex Higgins possibly won the World Snooker Championships sometime in the eighties."
Such a person wouldn't be wrong on the basis that Alex Higgins did win it.

Actually, I think that Stick wasn't focusing on the word "possibly"
so much as saying that not only is it a double, it's a pass.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:27:06 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 9/11/2022 5:18 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:26:49 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

Not just 'quite possibly a strong cube'. The opp. will have to pass on many sequences. Too lazy to count them but there are plenty.

Stick

I think my usage of "possibly" is different to your interpretation.
I intended the underlying possibility as being the event that my understanding of the position is good (it appears that it is).
Whereas you interpreted "possibly" as meaning "depending on the possible sequence".

For example, someone who is unsure of snooker history might say "Alex Higgins possibly won the World Snooker Championships sometime in the eighties."
Such a person wouldn't be wrong on the basis that Alex Higgins did win it.

Actually, I think that Stick wasn't focusing on the word "possibly"
so much as saying that not only is it a double, it's a pass.

Ok. The equity statistics bear that out. If we're already as high as 0.531 with all the shots we're volunteering,
the misses must be passes (in general).

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)