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  • Blitzing at gammon go

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 1 09:50:37 2022
    XGID=aBBB-BBA-BA-b----bdfA-----:0:0:1:43:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 89 O: 131 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Sep 1 09:59:35 2022
    On 9/1/2022 9:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBBB-BBA-BA-b----bdfA-----:0:0:1:43:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  O |   | O  X             |  |             O  O |   | O                |  |                O |   | O                |  |                O |   | O                |  |                  |   | 6                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O        X       |   | X  X     X  X  X |
     | O     X  X     X |   | X  X     X  X  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 89  O: 131 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    The aggressive play is to slot the four point and break the nine point
    which gives a triple shot (> 75%) to cover the blot vs a less than 1/3
    to enter and hit.

    There's an adage that the safer play often wins more gammons because it
    wins more games. That might be true here, but I'll make the aggressive
    play. 9/6 7/4.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Thu Sep 1 07:14:53 2022
    On Thursday, September 1, 2022 at 2:59:39 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
    ...
    There's an adage that the safer play often wins more gammons because it
    wins more games.
    ...

    That's (a better form of) Stick's DMP rule.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Thu Sep 1 07:19:29 2022
    On Thursday, September 1, 2022 at 2:59:39 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 9/1/2022 9:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBBB-BBA-BA-b----bdfA-----:0:0:1:43:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 89 O: 131 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43
    The aggressive play is to slot the four point and break the nine point
    which gives a triple shot (> 75%) to cover the blot vs a less than 1/3
    to enter and hit.

    There's an adage that the safer play often wins more gammons because it
    wins more games. That might be true here, but I'll make the aggressive
    play. 9/6 7/4.
    Ok. I'll play that too. The opponent's board "Board? What board?" is
    a large consideration for our bold play.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 3 09:41:38 2022
    XGID=aBBB-BBA-BA-b----bdfA-----:0:0:1:43:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 89 O: 131 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    XG doesn't think slotting is best for money (though it's close), but
    it does think slotting is mandatory at gammon go.

    1. Rollout¹ 20/16 7/4 eq:+1.983
    Player: 87.15% (G:62.00% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 12.85% (G:1.66% B:0.16%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.974..+1.993) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/6 eq:+1.896 (-0.087)
    Player: 88.90% (G:55.91% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 11.10% (G:0.70% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+1.886..+1.906) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:+1.891 (-0.092)
    Player: 89.46% (G:55.10% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 10.54% (G:0.81% B:0.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+1.883..+1.899) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=aBBB-BBA-BA-b----bdfA-----:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X | +---+
    | O O | | O | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | O | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 89 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 43

    1. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:+1.306
    Player: 90.85% (G:53.07% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 9.15% (G:0.75% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.300..+1.313) - [99.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/16 7/4 eq:+1.292 (-0.015)
    Player: 87.11% (G:61.89% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 12.89% (G:1.74% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.285..+1.299) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/6 eq:+1.291 (-0.016)
    Player: 89.72% (G:54.72% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 10.28% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.284..+1.297) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 20/16 10/7 eq:+1.266 (-0.040)
    Player: 91.41% (G:48.06% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 8.59% (G:0.68% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.260..+1.272) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 16 10:10:11 2022
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Dec 16 14:47:16 2022
    On Friday, December 16, 2022 at 3:10:14 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    I know I often end up foolish when I say these things, but my first impression is that
    this really is a beginner's problem.
    Here, we have no interest in the backgammon, and four on the bar is plenty for the gammon.
    Piling too many on the bar just gives our opponent more counter-chances by increasing the contact.
    Of course, we cover our 4 point, but we don't hit while we do this.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Frank Berger@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 16 15:39:16 2022
    I know I often end up foolish when I say these things, but my first impression is that
    this really is a beginner's problem.
    Here, we have no interest in the backgammon, and four on the bar is plenty for the gammon.
    Piling too many on the bar just gives our opponent more counter-chances by increasing the contact.
    Of course, we cover our 4 point, but we don't hit while we do this.
    What would you say if after 13-8,8-4 the opponent rolls a 11? What if you played 13-9,9-4?
    Usually when you are hit in the bear off your opponent has some structure to contain the hit piece, but the 2-pt board doesn't impress me and if the opponent hits and has still checker on thee bar you can move freely in exchange for a little higher
    probability to be hit.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Dec 17 01:51:57 2022
    On Friday, December 16, 2022 at 10:10:14 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Just make the dmp play.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to bgbl...@googlemail.com on Sat Dec 17 03:17:35 2022
    On Friday, December 16, 2022 at 11:39:17 PM UTC, bgbl...@googlemail.com wrote:
    I know I often end up foolish when I say these things, but my first impression is that
    this really is a beginner's problem.
    Here, we have no interest in the backgammon, and four on the bar is plenty for the gammon.
    Piling too many on the bar just gives our opponent more counter-chances by increasing the contact.
    Of course, we cover our 4 point, but we don't hit while we do this.
    What would you say if after 13-8,8-4 the opponent rolls a 11? What if you played 13-9,9-4?
    Usually when you are hit in the bear off your opponent has some structure to contain the hit piece, but the 2-pt board doesn't impress me and if the opponent hits and has still checker on thee bar you can move freely in exchange for a little higher
    probability to be hit.

    Ok, great! You have found a 1/36 parlay where your play works marginally better than mine. But so what?
    Our winning chances and gammon chances are huge of course, but we're not close to gin. Our opponent has contact
    opportunities to hit back, and it's our job to minimize these. Of course, the 2 point board of the opponent means that
    the opponent can hit back and still lose, but we mustn't be complacent.
    Of course, intuition is used here -- the position is not amenable to exact calculation. But I think the desire to hit
    is based on faulty intuition, derived from the experience of similar positions where backgammons count.
    Of course, my play is a big blunder if backgammons count. But backgammon don't count here.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Dec 17 03:18:56 2022
    On Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 9:51:59 AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, December 16, 2022 at 10:10:14 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Just make the dmp play.

    Stick
    Yes, that's what I did.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Frank Berger@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 17 04:49:14 2022
    I think the far more interesting question than hitting on the 9 is whether you cover the 4 or the 1. Your builders are closer to the 4, if the magic happens (11 or 44 or otherwise making the point) the 4 is easier to overcome. But from the 21 checkers
    are easier to recirculate. Difficult.
    @Paul: if everything else is the same, a 1/36 joker is not to take into account? And I don't think it is marginally. With 4 checkers the opponent is into play, with 5 he needs on avg another 3 rolls, where I can bring my back checkers home.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to bgbl...@googlemail.com on Sat Dec 17 04:54:53 2022
    On Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 12:49:16 PM UTC, bgbl...@googlemail.com wrote:
    I think the far more interesting question than hitting on the 9 is whether you cover the 4 or the 1. Your builders are closer to the 4, if the magic happens (11 or 44 or otherwise making the point) the 4 is easier to overcome. But from the 21 checkers
    are easier to recirculate. Difficult.
    @Paul: if everything else is the same, a 1/36 joker is not to take into account? And I don't think it is marginally. With 4 checkers the opponent is into play, with 5 he needs on avg another 3 rolls, where I can bring my back checkers home.

    It might not surprise you that I haven't changed my mind.
    Anyway, besides being a world-class player, one of the facts about
    Stick is that he doesn't get these problems wrong (regardless of
    the reasons for his almost perfect accuracy).
    From his post, we know it's the DMP play.
    Any idea what the DMP play is?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to bgbl...@googlemail.com on Sat Dec 17 06:37:57 2022
    On Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 12:49:16 PM UTC, bgbl...@googlemail.com wrote:
    I think the far more interesting question than hitting on the 9 is whether you cover the 4 or the 1. Your builders are closer to the 4, if the magic happens (11 or 44 or otherwise making the point) the 4 is easier to overcome. But from the 21 checkers
    are easier to recirculate. Difficult.
    @Paul: if everything else is the same, a 1/36 joker is not to take into account? And I don't think it is marginally. With 4 checkers the opponent is into play, with 5 he needs on avg another 3 rolls, where I can bring my back checkers home.

    It's not at all "Everything else is the same". Those opponent's checkers on the bar are threats. I'd rather have one fewer, please.
    I'd agree that covering the ace instead of the four can't be rejected out of hand. It doesn't look right (to me), though.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Dec 17 16:48:54 2022
    On 12/17/2022 7:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    From his post, we know it's the DMP play.
    Any idea what the DMP play is?

    Without giving everything away, let me show you my DMP rollout
    of the top 4 plays below, with the actual plays deleted.

    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ eq:+0.881
    2. Rollout¹ eq:+0.865 (-0.016)
    3. Rollout¹ eq:+0.861 (-0.020)
    4. Rollout¹ eq:+0.855 (-0.026)

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Dec 17 15:11:27 2022
    On Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 9:48:56 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 12/17/2022 7:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    From his post, we know it's the DMP play.
    Any idea what the DMP play is?
    Without giving everything away, let me show you my DMP rollout
    of the top 4 plays below, with the actual plays deleted.

    And is Stick correct that the DMP play is correct here?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Dec 17 20:54:23 2022
    On 12/17/2022 4:48 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 12/17/2022 7:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
     From his post, we know it's the DMP play.
    Any idea what the DMP play is?

    Without giving everything away, let me show you my DMP rollout
    of the top 4 plays below, with the actual plays deleted.


        1. Rollout¹              eq:+0.881
        2. Rollout¹              eq:+0.865 (-0.016)
        3. Rollout¹              eq:+0.861 (-0.020)
        4. Rollout¹              eq:+0.855 (-0.026)


    Well, then, it's quite obvious!

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Dec 17 20:41:45 2022
    On 12/16/2022 10:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X                |   | O     O  X     X |
     | X                |   | O     O          |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     | O                | O |                  |
     | O                | O | X                |
     | O                | O | X  X     X  X    |
     | O        O       |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 115  O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54


    Four on the bar is usually enough, so 13/4 for me.

    13/9* 6/1 is interesting, but the fifth checker on the roof seems to
    accomplish less than making the solid five prime and forestalling O from anchoring on the four point.

    I don't think escaping the runners is right - it's a blitz so escaping
    is not a priority.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sun Dec 18 06:11:57 2022
    On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1:41:47 AM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 12/16/2022 10:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54
    Four on the bar is usually enough, so 13/4 for me.

    13/9* 6/1 is interesting, but the fifth checker on the roof seems to accomplish less than making the solid five prime and forestalling O from anchoring on the four point.

    I don't think escaping the runners is right - it's a blitz so escaping
    is not a priority.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    ah...Clem has become a really shrewd analyst over the years.
    It gives me a lot of confidence that he and I have picked the same play.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Dec 18 09:31:29 2022
    On 12/17/2022 6:11 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    And is Stick correct that the DMP play is correct here?

    As you know, that goes without saying.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 18 09:51:09 2022
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    In a blitz, making a higher point isn't necessarily better than making
    a lower point. You're aiming for a closeout, and making low points is
    often harder than making high points, so on the principle that you
    should do hard things before easy things, making the ace point takes
    priority over making the 4pt here.

    Even if you choose to make the 4pt, there's really no downside to
    hitting. It's not going to improve O's timing or anything like that.
    If O manages to anchor, X is not going to be able to get O to crunch.

    Posing this problem at gammon go rather than for money simplifies it,
    because backgammons are not a consideration. With five checkers on
    the bar, a backgammon is a serious possibility. The backgammon chances
    are lower if O manages to anchor on the 4pt (as opposed to the 1pt).
    This factor is not quite enough to swing the decision, according to the
    rollout below, but it's close.

    Finally, at DMP, the ranking of the top four plays according to an XG
    rollout is:

    1. 13/9* 6/1
    2. 13/9*/4
    3. 24/20 6/1
    4. 13/4

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 6/1 eq:+2.669
    Player: 94.24% (G:89.19% B:12.23%)
    Opponent: 5.76% (G:0.41% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+2.661..+2.676) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+2.614 (-0.055)
    Player: 93.45% (G:87.23% B:19.63%)
    Opponent: 6.55% (G:0.29% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.605..+2.622) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+2.579 (-0.090)
    Player: 92.90% (G:86.05% B:17.69%)
    Opponent: 7.10% (G:0.47% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+2.570..+2.588) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X | +---+
    | X | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 6/1 eq:+1.998
    Player: 93.14% (G:86.56% B:30.69%)
    Opponent: 6.86% (G:0.64% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (+1.994..+2.003) - [99.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+1.989 (-0.009)
    Player: 92.34% (G:84.72% B:33.04%)
    Opponent: 7.66% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.985..+1.994) - [0.2%]

    3. Rollout² 13/4 eq:+1.961 (-0.038)
    Player: 91.95% (G:84.09% B:32.06%)
    Opponent: 8.05% (G:0.40% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.952..+1.970) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Dec 18 11:35:10 2022
    On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 2:51:12 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54
    In a blitz, making a higher point isn't necessarily better than making
    a lower point. You're aiming for a closeout, and making low points is
    often harder than making high points, so on the principle that you
    should do hard things before easy things, making the ace point takes priority over making the 4pt here.

    Even if you choose to make the 4pt, there's really no downside to
    hitting. It's not going to improve O's timing or anything like that.
    If O manages to anchor, X is not going to be able to get O to crunch.

    Posing this problem at gammon go rather than for money simplifies it, because backgammons are not a consideration. With five checkers on
    the bar, a backgammon is a serious possibility. The backgammon chances
    are lower if O manages to anchor on the 4pt (as opposed to the 1pt).
    This factor is not quite enough to swing the decision, according to the rollout below, but it's close.

    Finally, at DMP, the ranking of the top four plays according to an XG rollout is:

    1. 13/9* 6/1
    2. 13/9*/4
    3. 24/20 6/1
    4. 13/4

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 6/1 eq:+2.669
    Player: 94.24% (G:89.19% B:12.23%)
    Opponent: 5.76% (G:0.41% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+2.661..+2.676) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+2.614 (-0.055)
    Player: 93.45% (G:87.23% B:19.63%)
    Opponent: 6.55% (G:0.29% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.605..+2.622) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+2.579 (-0.090)
    Player: 92.90% (G:86.05% B:17.69%)
    Opponent: 7.10% (G:0.47% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+2.570..+2.588) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=dABBABC--a--dB-----d-bA-A-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X X | +---+
    | X | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X |
    | O O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 200 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 6/1 eq:+1.998
    Player: 93.14% (G:86.56% B:30.69%)
    Opponent: 6.86% (G:0.64% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (+1.994..+2.003) - [99.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+1.989 (-0.009)
    Player: 92.34% (G:84.72% B:33.04%)
    Opponent: 7.66% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.985..+1.994) - [0.2%]

    3. Rollout² 13/4 eq:+1.961 (-0.038)
    Player: 91.95% (G:84.09% B:32.06%)
    Opponent: 8.05% (G:0.40% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.952..+1.970) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    I made the 4 point because I'm more scared of the opponent anchoring on the 4 point than anchoring on the
    ace point.
    Why is this a worse idea than spending thirty years aiming for mathematical immortality by summing up the divisors of randomly
    selected odd integers in the hope of finding a perfect one?

    Paul

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Dec 18 11:55:53 2022
    On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 9:31:32 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 12/17/2022 6:11 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    And is Stick correct that the DMP play is correct here?
    As you know, that goes without saying.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    That's either a great compliment (which we all know it isn't what you meant lol) or you're suggesting that with that many plays that close I rolled it out before posting my response. I'm not sure which is the bigger lol, which would you like it to be?

    Stick

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sun Dec 18 12:11:07 2022
    On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:55:54 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 9:31:32 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 12/17/2022 6:11 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    And is Stick correct that the DMP play is correct here?
    As you know, that goes without saying.

    ---
    Tim Chow
    That's either a great compliment (which we all know it isn't what you meant lol) or you're suggesting that with that many plays that close I rolled it out before posting my response. I'm not sure which is the bigger lol, which would you like it to be?

    Stick

    I don't see anything to complain about in Tim's response.
    It so happens that your accuracy in your comments on this
    forum is extremely high. I can't recall you making an incorrect
    assertion, although I remember hearing that it has happened.
    So if you say the DMP play is correct, then the DMP play is correct.

    I don't see anyone making any implication, insinuation, or statement
    as to _why_ you are nearly always correct.

    But since you are nearly always correct, if you post something, it's sensible of
    readers to assume it's true.

    I actually don't care why you're nearly always correct, but you are.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Dec 19 06:13:02 2022
    On 12/18/2022 3:11 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't see anything to complain about in Tim's response.
    It so happens that your accuracy in your comments on this
    forum is extremely high. I can't recall you making an incorrect
    assertion, although I remember hearing that it has happened.
    So if you say the DMP play is correct, then the DMP play is correct.

    I don't see anyone making any implication, insinuation, or statement
    as to _why_ you are nearly always correct.

    But since you are nearly always correct, if you post something, it's sensible of
    readers to assume it's true.

    I actually don't care why you're nearly always correct, but you are.

    I agree with Paul 100%.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 19 06:22:33 2022
    On 12/19/2022 6:13 AM, I wrote:
    I agree with Paul 100%.

    Actually, Paul doesn't say anything about inadvertent errors, like
    posting in the wrong thread by accident, or misreading the question.
    But I don't think that's what Paul was talking about.

    Here's one example that I think falls into that category, though
    Stick never confirmed it.

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/n0WTzRCHkqQ/m/7_IijqMrCQAJ

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Dec 19 06:38:17 2022
    On 12/18/2022 2:35 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I made the 4 point because I'm more scared of the opponent anchoring on the 4 point than anchoring on the
    ace point.

    It's true that if O enters 4 checkers immediately then you'd
    prefer her to enter on your 1pt rather than her 4pt. But
    otherwise, the point is that you're more likely to close out O
    if you make the 1pt now than if you make the 4pt now.

    See the two positions below for some further insight. If O
    enters 1 checker immediately then she'd rather enter on the 1pt
    because her chances of anchoring are better that way---X's
    checker on the 13pt has further to travel to reach the 1pt.
    (Note that in the positions below, it's O on roll, but X is
    on the bottom still.)

    XGID=eABBBBC-----dA-----d-bA-A-:0:0:-1:61:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X |
    | O | O | X X X X X |
    | O | O | X X X X X X |
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 209 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    O to play 61

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/24* eq:-2.281
    Player: 12.55% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 87.45% (G:76.60% B:21.46%)

    XGID=eBBBABB--A--dA-----d-bA-A-:0:0:-1:64:0:1:1:2:10

    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    XGID=eBBBABB--A--dA-----d-bA-A-:0:0:-1:64:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    | X | | O O X X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | O | X X X X X |
    | O X | O | X X X X X X |
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 209 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    O to play 64

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/21* eq:-2.408
    Player: 10.83% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
    Opponent: 89.17% (G:81.21% B:14.80%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Dec 19 10:23:48 2022
    On Monday, December 19, 2022 at 6:22:35 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 12/19/2022 6:13 AM, I wrote:
    I agree with Paul 100%.
    Actually, Paul doesn't say anything about inadvertent errors, like
    posting in the wrong thread by accident, or misreading the question.
    But I don't think that's what Paul was talking about.

    Here's one example that I think falls into that category, though
    Stick never confirmed it.

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/n0WTzRCHkqQ/m/7_IijqMrCQAJ

    ---
    Tim Chow

    After I do rollouts I don't save them and generally that doesn't matter because most rollouts can be done again if needed so fast it doesn't matter. A ++/gigantic rollout though takes time and I didn't want to redo the rollout and then forgot about it
    so no idea what went on.

    Stick

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