On Friday, September 2, 2022 at 10:06:41 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e---AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22
On the second roll of the game, playing 6/4(2) with a roll of 22 is
almost always what the bot does (the exception being that after the
opponent opens with 24/18 13/9, then XG hits 24/16* with 22). Here,
though, X's 1pt is made and O has no structure besides her 3pt anchor,
so blitzing becomes an attractive game plan. I have to admit that
it surprises me that making the 4pt is deemed a whopper with cheese,
but it's true that after 6/4(2), X has no good way to play the
remaining 2's. In the variant below, XG still hits, but the
alternatives are not whoppers.
1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.254
Player: 55.12% (G:18.87% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 44.88% (G:11.96% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.239..+0.269) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/4(2) eq:+0.104 (-0.151)
Player: 52.66% (G:14.91% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 47.34% (G:13.04% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.090..+0.117) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/21 6/4(2) eq:+0.091 (-0.163)
Player: 52.27% (G:14.43% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 47.73% (G:13.15% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.078..+0.104) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.075 (-0.179)
Player: 51.96% (G:13.29% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.04% (G:12.35% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.062..+0.088) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22
1. XG Roller++ 24/16* eq:+0.270
Player: 55.46% (G:18.37% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:10.88% B:0.48%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) eq:+0.207 (-0.063)
Player: 55.07% (G:10.98% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 44.93% (G:7.13% B:0.25%)
3. XG Roller++ 24/22(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.199 (-0.071)
Player: 54.78% (G:13.04% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 45.22% (G:9.66% B:0.34%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The ace point is made, the opponent has an advanced anchor that functions much better than it normally would due to said ace point being made, and we're up/way up in the race. We have one remaining game plan, it isn't priming, it isn't attacking, it's
running. Waiting even a turn to try to escape those back checkers would be a grievous error as when the opponent makes a point on us or any point in front of us our position becomes quite desperate.
Stick
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