• 52 would have been better

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 29 22:29:11 2021
    XGID=----bBC-C---BD---abccb-bA-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X X | | X X O | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 109 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 5 22:54:16 2021
    XGID=----bBC-C---BD---abccb-bA-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X X | | X X O | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 109 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    It seemed too risky to me to volunteer a shot here, but O's fives
    are triplicated (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:-0.744
    Player: 29.27% (G:5.34% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 70.73% (G:50.72% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.754..-0.734) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2 eq:-0.818 (-0.074)
    Player: 25.94% (G:4.72% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 74.06% (G:48.92% B:0.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.827..-0.808) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 12/8 eq:-0.823 (-0.079)
    Player: 25.84% (G:4.36% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 74.16% (G:49.01% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.832..-0.815) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/3 eq:-0.834 (-0.090)
    Player: 27.22% (G:5.49% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 72.78% (G:54.24% B:1.21%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.843..-0.825) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 12/3 eq:-0.877 (-0.133)
    Player: 25.27% (G:4.75% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 74.73% (G:53.05% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.885..-0.869) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=----bBC-C---BD--a-cbcb-bA-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X X | | X X O | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 12/8 eq:-0.765
    Player: 26.89% (G:4.99% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 73.11% (G:46.41% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.770..-0.761) - [95.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:-0.771 (-0.006)
    Player: 28.13% (G:5.26% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 71.87% (G:50.02% B:0.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.776..-0.766) - [4.3%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2 eq:-0.776 (-0.010)
    Player: 26.64% (G:5.13% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 73.36% (G:46.73% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.781..-0.770) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)