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  • Anchor or 4pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 30 08:10:44 2022
    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Aug 30 14:04:51 2022
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow


    Seems to me this is a great opportunity to take a high anchor in his
    home board, especially since he's almost sure to hit on the next turn.

    24/20, 10/4

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Aug 30 14:04:52 2022
    On 8/30/2022 8:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  X           X |
     | X           O  O |   | O                |  |             O    |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X  X             |
     | O  O  X     X    |   | X  X           O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 146  O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64


    X will be ahead in the race after this play so it would seem to be
    thematic to run the stragglers rather than anchor up. Not at all sure
    though.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Tue Aug 30 12:34:28 2022
    On Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 10:04:53 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Seems to me this is a great opportunity to take a high anchor in his
    home board, especially since he's almost sure to hit on the next turn.

    24/20, 10/4

    How is he sure to hit? We have the best possible 3pt board after making the 4pt. He's got no board so will only hit us if he rolls a natural. (or some awkward number where he hits bc it doesn't play reasonable any other way and we'll have direct
    return shots so we're fairly happy)

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Tue Aug 30 21:04:02 2022
    On 8/30/2022 2:04 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 8/30/2022 8:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  X           X |
     | X           O  O |   | O                | >>  |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                | >>  | O           X    |   | X  X             | >>  | O  O  X     X    |   | X  X           O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 146  O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64


    X will be ahead in the race after this play so it would seem to be
    thematic to run the stragglers rather than anchor up. Not at all sure though.

    What do you mean by "run the stragglers"? 24/14? 20/10? Something
    else?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 31 11:26:40 2022
    On 8/30/2022 9:04 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 8/30/2022 2:04 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 8/30/2022 8:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
      +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
      | X           O  O |   | O  X           X |
      | X           O  O |   | O                | >>>   |             O    |   | O                |
      |                  |   | O                |
      |                  |   | O                |
      |                  |BAR|                  |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |             X    |   | X                |
      | O           X    |   | X                |
      | O           X    |   | X  X             | >>>   | O  O  X     X    |   | X  X           O |
      +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 146  O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64


    X will be ahead in the race after this play so it would seem to be
    thematic to run the stragglers rather than anchor up.  Not at all sure
    though.

    What do you mean by "run the stragglers"?  24/14?  20/10?  Something
    else?


    Posted before finishing my morning tea. I tried to cancel this
    obviously wrong post, but usenet thinks I have already picked up my dice.


    I'll make the four point since ahead in the race implies I want to
    spring the runners as opposed to anchoring. But not this move.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 1 09:48:32 2022
    XGID=-a---BD-D-AacB---cbeA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    A useful early-game rule of thumb that I learned from Nack Ballard is,
    "either 5pt beats either 4pt." However, the above position, while still
    fairly early in the game, is moving into the midgame. Playing 10/4 8/4
    doesn't "just" make the 4pt; it creates the very strong 8pt/6pt/5pt/4pt formation. On the other hand, if X anchors up with 24/20, then there
    isn't a very good 6 to play. And since O has no board yet, the danger
    of getting attacked isn't too severe yet.

    For money, XG says that making the 4pt is much better than anchoring up.
    At gammon save, however (not shown here), XG anchors up. (At DMP, XG
    makes the 4pt, but its second choice is running with 20/10.)

    1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.319
    Player: 56.09% (G:20.75% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 43.91% (G:9.94% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.305..+0.333) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/20 10/4 eq:+0.237 (-0.083)
    Player: 54.49% (G:15.27% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 45.51% (G:6.48% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.223..+0.250) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:+0.212 (-0.107)
    Player: 55.21% (G:14.84% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 44.79% (G:10.15% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.199..+0.225) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/2 eq:+0.193 (-0.126)
    Player: 53.71% (G:14.97% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 46.29% (G:7.27% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.181..+0.206) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)