On Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 3:30:47 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
On 9/29/2021 4:02 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
In a chouette, if someone asked "Do you want a double?",
they would probably mean a double espresso or a whiskey double
or something like that.
They couldn't possibly be asking about the cube because that's too obvious. Both holding and TG are clearly ridiculous.
So yes, it's a double.
But is it a take?
Paul
XGID=--aCCCCB----a-----bccbab-A:1:-1:-1:00:1:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 93 X-O: 0-1
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Seems like a take to me. X still has to cover his blot and leap
over O's prime.
The rollout gives a close pass. However, XG's analysis (I can't tell you the ply but
I used competitive mode) gave an ultra marginal 0.996 take.
I took too, but, a few rolls later, I was ruing the take and felt that I'd steamed badly.
I was relieved that the take was initially vindicated.
I felt pretty confident that you would (correctly) drop this, and was looking forward to you getting
one of my problems right -- you seem pretty scared of blitzy positions generally.
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.34% (G:7.20% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.66% (G:3.98% B:0.16%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.48% (G:6.91% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.52% (G:4.10% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.559, Double=+1.157
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.809 (-0.191)
Redouble/Take: +1.023 (+0.023)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.804..+0.815)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.013..+1.034)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 22 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.34% (G:7.20% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.66% (G:3.98% B:0.16%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.48% (G:6.91% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.52% (G:4.10% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.559, Double=+1.157
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.809 (-0.191)
Redouble/Take: +1.023 (+0.023)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.804..+0.815)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.013..+1.034)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 22 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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