XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/29/2022 7:38 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O     O  O     X |
 | X           O    |   | O     O  O     X |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O              X |   | X  X     X       |
 | O     X        X |   | X  X     X  O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 138  O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

Keeping the midpoint when there are still runners to escape seems
thematic. The ten point is worth something, but the simple 10/5 in a
roughly even race seems like the right idea.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

I can't bring myself to hit so 10/5 seems constructive, especially for
the next turn.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

XG makes the 4pt here despite leaving a direct shot. Magriel's
criteria can help here; after 7/4 6/4, X is anchored with the
stronger board and has more checkers back. Since X is an underdog,
taking a risk with potentially large upside is justifiable.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.192
Player: 43.45% (G:18.19% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 56.55% (G:17.00% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.204..-0.180) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 eq:-0.258 (-0.066)
Player: 42.12% (G:15.52% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 57.88% (G:15.95% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.272..-0.244) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.282 (-0.090)
Player: 41.31% (G:15.55% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 58.69% (G:16.04% B:1.13%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.300..-0.265) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/2* eq:-0.328 (-0.137)
Player: 41.38% (G:17.36% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.62% (G:20.66% B:2.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.342..-0.315) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aAB--CC-A---cB---c-ecA--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 8:41:14 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aAB--CC-A---cB---c-ecA--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

5/1 is for sure.
Next for me is deciding whether to slot the four point. Slotting is a quicker route to making a point and it looks urgent to try to buy time for the back checkers. It's probably favorable to make the four point rather than the three if you can have your
way and make it more disruptive to O. Would being hit after slotting change things dramatically? Maybe not. It might improve timing and continuity. 16 pips is going to create a lot of space between the three back checkers and the rest. I think I'd slot
the four.
Whether to play 13/9 (2) or 13/5: I would favor 13/5 and keep a checker on the 13 point for connectivity with the back checkers and to have some outfield coverage.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aAB--CC-A---cB---c-ecA--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

The key question here is whether to slot the 4pt. In general, one
is willing to take more risks the worse one's position is, on the
"what have I got to lose?" principle. Here, XG says that slotting
the 4pt is worth the risk. With a stronger position on the other
side of the board (see variant), the decision is much closer.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4 5/1 eq:+0.105
Player: 49.74% (G:23.39% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 50.26% (G:15.19% B:1.27%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.091..+0.119) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/1 eq:+0.027 (-0.078)
Player: 48.31% (G:21.98% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 51.69% (G:14.40% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.018..+0.036) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aAB--CC-A---cB---c-ecC----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4 5/1 eq:+0.326
Player: 54.44% (G:22.09% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 45.56% (G:8.22% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.320..+0.333) - [99.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/1 eq:+0.313 (-0.014)
Player: 54.95% (G:20.99% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 45.05% (G:7.41% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.304..+0.321) - [0.7%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)