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  • Where to leave your blot(s)?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 27 08:46:42 2022
    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Aug 27 10:50:44 2022
    On 8/27/2022 8:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  O  O     X    |
     | X           O    |   | O  O  O     X    |
     | X           O    |   |             X    |  | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O           X    |   | X                | +---+
     | O           X    |   | X     X          | | 2 |
     | O           X    |   | X  O  X        O | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 171  O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    Slotting the deuce point minimizes shots, but a bold play is called for
    here. 13/7 6/1*

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Aug 28 10:40:19 2022
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I think I'd just play the safe 13/2 move.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Aug 28 12:01:02 2022
    On Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 1:46:45 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I think we really have to fight for our opponent's bar point as this is our main chance to improve our position.
    23/18 is a must. Then 13/7 is too loose so we play the only legal 6 of 8/2. Of course, this is dangerous but
    you have to take risks when you're a big underdog. We have a reasonable chance of either anchoring on the 18 point
    or rehitting our opponent there.
    23/18 8/2.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 29 07:36:03 2022
    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    Paul correctly discerned that 23/18 is a must, but XG doesn't think
    that 23/18 13/7 is too loose.

    In the variant, I have moved O's blot on her 24pt to her 22pt, so
    that the difference in the number of shots is even more dramatic.
    XG still prefers 23/18 13/7 over the alternatives, but only just.

    This position is a great example of Magriel's criteria, which all
    point in the same direction (bold).

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:-0.514
    Player: 29.48% (G:5.64% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 70.52% (G:26.71% B:1.57%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.524..-0.504) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 8/2 eq:-0.559 (-0.045)
    Player: 27.45% (G:5.91% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 72.55% (G:26.09% B:1.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.569..-0.549) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/1* eq:-0.632 (-0.118)
    Player: 26.42% (G:5.95% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 73.58% (G:30.30% B:2.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.644..-0.620) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq:-0.645 (-0.131)
    Player: 24.19% (G:5.14% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 75.81% (G:25.81% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.653..-0.636) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---aBaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:-0.565
    Player: 28.44% (G:5.79% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 71.56% (G:28.63% B:1.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.570..-0.560) - [70.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 8/2 eq:-0.567 (-0.003)
    Player: 26.64% (G:5.64% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 73.36% (G:24.25% B:1.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.572..-0.562) - [21.8%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/3* eq:-0.569 (-0.005)
    Player: 28.38% (G:6.91% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 71.62% (G:29.83% B:2.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.575..-0.564) - [7.6%]

    4. Rollout² 13/2 eq:-0.600 (-0.036)
    Player: 24.56% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 75.44% (G:22.70% B:1.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.610..-0.591) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout² 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.642 (-0.077)
    Player: 25.23% (G:5.84% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 74.77% (G:28.08% B:1.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.651..-0.633) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Aug 30 11:58:50 2022
    On Monday, August 29, 2022 at 7:36:05 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--BaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65
    Paul correctly discerned that 23/18 is a must, but XG doesn't think
    that 23/18 13/7 is too loose.

    In the variant, I have moved O's blot on her 24pt to her 22pt, so
    that the difference in the number of shots is even more dramatic.
    XG still prefers 23/18 13/7 over the alternatives, but only just.

    This position is a great example of Magriel's criteria, which all
    point in the same direction (bold).

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:-0.514
    Player: 29.48% (G:5.64% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 70.52% (G:26.71% B:1.57%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.524..-0.504) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 8/2 eq:-0.559 (-0.045)
    Player: 27.45% (G:5.91% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 72.55% (G:26.09% B:1.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.569..-0.549) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/1* eq:-0.632 (-0.118)
    Player: 26.42% (G:5.95% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 73.58% (G:30.30% B:2.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.644..-0.620) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq:-0.645 (-0.131)
    Player: 24.19% (G:5.14% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 75.81% (G:25.81% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.653..-0.636) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---aBaC-C---dD---c-bbb-C--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X O X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65
    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:-0.565
    Player: 28.44% (G:5.79% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 71.56% (G:28.63% B:1.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.570..-0.560) - [70.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 8/2 eq:-0.567 (-0.003)
    Player: 26.64% (G:5.64% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 73.36% (G:24.25% B:1.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.572..-0.562) - [21.8%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/3* eq:-0.569 (-0.005)
    Player: 28.38% (G:6.91% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 71.62% (G:29.83% B:2.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.575..-0.564) - [7.6%]

    4. Rollout² 13/2 eq:-0.600 (-0.036)
    Player: 24.56% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 75.44% (G:22.70% B:1.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.610..-0.591) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout² 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.642 (-0.077)
    Player: 25.23% (G:5.84% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 74.77% (G:28.08% B:1.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.651..-0.633) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?" and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best play.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Tue Aug 30 12:35:50 2022
    On Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 3:29:22 PM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
    Stick Rice wrote:

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?"
    and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best
    play.
    What exactly is the DMP and how do you find it?

    It jumped out at me from the screen. Maybe you should upgrade your screen.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Tue Aug 30 19:29:20 2022
    Stick Rice wrote:

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?"
    and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best
    play.

    What exactly is the DMP and how do you find it?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Tue Aug 30 21:02:41 2022
    On 8/30/2022 3:29 PM, badgolferman wrote:
    Stick Rice wrote:

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?"
    and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best
    play.

    What exactly is the DMP and how do you find it?

    Are you asking what DMP means? It stands for "double match point."

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Wed Aug 31 08:01:04 2022
    On 8/31/2022 7:53 AM, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    On 8/30/2022 3:29 PM, badgolferman wrote:
    Stick Rice wrote:

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?"
    and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best
    play.

    What exactly is the DMP and how do you find it?

    Are you asking what DMP means? It stands for "double match point."


    Yes, I know that. What I don't know is how do you recognize it and how
    does your strategy change when it prevents itself. "What's the dmp
    play?" I don't know what it is if I don't know how to find it.

    I think Stick's advice would be to play a lot of DMP matches against the computer to get a good feeling for DMP play. The argument is that since gammons and cube considerations are irrelevant, DMP is simpler and
    easier to master than money play.

    If you've played enough DMP, the argument goes, then in a complex
    money-game position, you should at least be able to figure out the
    DMP play by ignoring gammons and falling back on your DMP experience.

    Alternatively, you could try Stick's suggestion of adjusting your
    screen.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 31 11:53:14 2022
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    On 8/30/2022 3:29 PM, badgolferman wrote:
    Stick Rice wrote:

    If only someone would have asked themselves "what's the dmp play?"
    and noted "clearly 18, 7!" maybe someone would have found the best
    play.

    What exactly is the DMP and how do you find it?

    Are you asking what DMP means? It stands for "double match point."


    Yes, I know that. What I don't know is how do you recognize it and how
    does your strategy change when it prevents itself. "What's the dmp
    play?" I don't know what it is if I don't know how to find it.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)