XGID=abBBBbB-AD----a----c-bbBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O X X X O |
| X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/26/2022 5:46 PM, ah...Clem wrote:

XGID=abBBBbB-AD----a----c-bbBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O X X X O |
| X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

In no sense is this a backgame, but never mind that. I don't think
O can take this one. Having two anchors on the 1pt and the 5pt is
not conducive to getting and hitting shots. And while O has a
four-point board, she's not well-positioned to contain any checkers
that X has back. On top of all that, she has a checker on the bar
and another blot that might get picked up.

Is X too good? I would probably double OTB, but I tend to cash too
much.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

ah...Clem wrote:

XGID=abBBBbB-AD----a----c-bbBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O X X X O |
| X X | | X O X X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Too Good / Pass

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Agree with Tim that this is not a backgame. O lacks the timing for a
backgame. It's a beginner's mistake to call any position with two
anchors a "backgame" (assuming the ace point counts as an "anchor")

Anyway, I find thses positions problematic. O has decent winning
chances (and often gets a recube) but loses a lot of gammons. Is it
good enough to cube? Is it TG? I couldn't figure it out so mistakenly
took a shake.

It's a whopper to hold here. The usual near term outcome is for X to
leap one of his runners with O either dancing or wasting half her roll
entering and X having a direct shot at the outfield blot. Small numbers
that don't escape iike 11, 12, and 22 improve X's position.

This came up in match play, but the match score didn't make a difference.


XGID=abBBBbB-AD----a----c-bbBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O X X X O |
| X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.95% (G:31.02% B:3.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.05% (G:5.79% B:0.12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.17% (G:31.09% B:3.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.83% (G:5.87% B:0.14%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.685, Double=+1.383

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.880 (-0.120)
Double/Take: +1.142 (+0.142)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.868..+0.893)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.123..+1.162)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 9:30:13 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 8/26/2022 5:46 PM, ah...Clem wrote:

XGID=abBBBbB-AD----a----c-bbBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O X X X O |
| X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

In no sense is this a backgame, but never mind that. I don't think
O can take this one. Having two anchors on the 1pt and the 5pt is
not conducive to getting and hitting shots. And while O has a
four-point board, she's not well-positioned to contain any checkers
that X has back. On top of all that, she has a checker on the bar
and another blot that might get picked up.

Is X too good? I would probably double OTB, but I tend to cash too
much.

---
Tim Chow

I really don't understand why you wouldn't call this a backgame. It is.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)