Raw pip counts are 11 to 18
I have three extra on my ace point so add 2 * 3 to my score to get 17.
I have 4,5,6 all empty so add 3 to get 20.
I need 1 more crossover than XG so add 1 to get 21.
Add 1/6 of that to get 24.5
For the opponent we 1 for the stack on the 3 point and 2 more
for the open 5 and 6 points. So we get 21.
24.5 - 21 = 3.5 which is squarely within the D/T range.
Shame on me for missing such a great Axelisation opportunity.
XGID=-E-B-----------------ada--:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X | | 4 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 11 O: 18 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 68.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.373, Double=+0.746
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.575 (-0.072)
Redouble/Take: +0.647
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.353)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
On 8/26/2022 3:45 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Raw pip counts are 11 to 18Yes.
I have three extra on my ace point so add 2 * 3 to my score to get 17.
I have 4,5,6 all empty so add 3 to get 20.No, you only get penalized for this if your opponent has a checker on
the corresponding point. So add 1 to get 18
I need 1 more crossover than XG so add 1 to get 21.Hmmmm. You add one pip for each extra checker on the board. I think you
only count crossovers to bear in, not to bear off, otherwise you're
double counting. So, offsetting errors here, but since when is
18+1==21? 19 it is.
Add 1/6 of that to get 24.5Correct to add one for the extra spare on the three point. Incorrect to
For the opponent we 1 for the stack on the 3 point and 2 more
for the open 5 and 6 points. So we get 21.
add two for the open points. So the adjusted pipcount is 19-19.
You're on roll, so a clear D/T using Axel's formula or the simpler Trice formula. And it should be a R/T for O if she were on roll - which it is
- see below.
24.5 - 21 = 3.5 which is squarely within the D/T range.It's always worth doing a race cube calculation in these situations.
Shame on me for missing such a great Axelisation opportunity.
XGID=-E-B-----------------ada--:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X | | 4 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 11 O: 18 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 68.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.373, Double=+0.746
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.575 (-0.072)
Redouble/Take: +0.647
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.353)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10Invert active player and cube:
XGID=-E-B-----------------ada--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X | | 4 |
| | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 18 O: 11 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 74.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.499, Double=+0.997
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.786 (-0.167)
Redouble/Take: +0.954
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.046)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.784..+0.788)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.951..+0.956)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 0.3 second
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Thanks for this analysis.
The only error I made was my misremembering the high-open-points
penalty method. But my variant of it is extremely similar.
And I present the algo in a unified way by counting all crossovers whether they
are from needing to bear in or checkers left. This isn't a difference.
I don't know the Trice method but your post might inspire me to learn it.
On 8/27/2022 3:45 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Thanks for this analysis.It's almost the same since it increases the adjusted count for each
The only error I made was my misremembering the high-open-points
penalty method. But my variant of it is extremely similar.
player equally, but results in a larger adjusted count. Probably
doesn't matter for most positions.
And I present the algo in a unified way by counting all crossovers whether theyYou are correct, and the mathematician in me favors this as it reduces
are from needing to bear in or checkers left. This isn't a difference.
the number of rules by one. Whether it would be clear to many readers
in this form is debatable. Then again, as currently written the rules
could be interpreted to double count extra checkers in the homeboard.
I don't know the Trice method but your post might inspire me to learn it.I've been using iSight's adjusted pipcount along with the Trice metric
(rule of 62) since iSight's adjusted count is easier to do in my head
than Trice's, and the Trice metric is easier than iSight.
Using the iSight adjusted counts, apply the metric as follows:
If leaders adjusted count is >= 62, POLT = count/10 + 1 round up
If leaders adjusted count < 62, POLT = (count-5)/7 round down
The POLT is the point of last take; if the trailer is behind by
more than the POLT it's a pass.
If the leader is within 3 of the POLT it's an initial double, if
within 2 it's a redouble.
I find that computing 10% and adding one is much easier than increasing
by 1/6th. And subtracting 5 and dividing by 7 is somewhat easier. YMMV>
I've been using iSight's adjusted pipcount along with the Trice metric
(rule of 62)
I find that computing 10% and adding one is much easier than
increasing by 1/6th. And subtracting 5 and dividing by 7 is somewhat
easier.
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