XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/25/2022 9:45 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O  O     O       |
 | X           O    |   | O        O       |
 | X           O    |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X        X       |
 | O  X        X    |   | X     O  X       |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 130  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

The ten point unstacks the midpoint, covers a blot, and makes a blocking
point 6 pips away from O's runner.

The five point makes the five point.

I'll go with three good things being superior to one very good thing.

Make the ten point.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

The 10-point looks the most natural and blocks the opponent's 6. The
game is even right now so I see no need to hit.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 2:45:52 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Yes, the title does give it away!
Here, Trickster Tim really is in evidence.
Of course, we don't make a point!
We hit with 8/4*
We will only regret this after the opponent's next roll if they both hit and cover.
The opponent's good rolls are only 22/41/43/44 has far as I can see.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 5:08:00 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

The 10-point looks the most natural and blocks the opponent's 6. The
game is even right now so I see no need to hit.

Re hitting, how about this question (to which I don't know the answer).
Is the extent to which the opponent failing to rehit is a good outcome greater than the extent to which the opponent rehitting
is a bad outcome?
Hitting works brilliantly if they don't hit back. It seriously hampers the opponent's ability to escape the straggler.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/25/2022 11:50 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 2:45:52 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

---
Tim Chow

Yes, the title does give it away!
Here, Trickster Tim really is in evidence.
Of course, we don't make a point!
We hit with 8/4*
We will only regret this after the opponent's next roll if they both hit and cover.
The opponent's good rolls are only 22/41/43/44 has far as I can see.

For opening replies, playing a "natural" is better than hitting on the
four or five point. Of course, this is not an opening reply, but I think
the same logic should hold.

I'd expect making the five point to be favored over the loose hit.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

The subject line is of course a reference to Stick's post back in March:

https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/C_MVVNWVLtQ/m/GPXqb9ICBgAJ

As is obvious to Stick from the title, XG makes the 10pt. I didn't
roll out the hit, but XGR++ says that 8/4* is a triple whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/10 eq:+0.274
Player: 57.29% (G:4.43% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 42.71% (G:2.77% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.266..+0.282) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.145 (-0.129)
Player: 53.77% (G:6.85% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 46.23% (G:4.90% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.137..+0.153) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)