Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on my[...]
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
Although it might seem impossible that such a weak player as myself
could beat a world-class player like Akiko, I am clearly a favourite.
My 5 out shots are more significant than her 19/36 to 17/36 edge
when she gets to roll.
So should I double?
I was thinking about this a bit in the taxi today, doing all the computations in my head, and getting them right. As far as I can remember, I didn't analyse either of these positions before or see anyone else analyse them.
On 8/21/2022 1:53 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on my
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
Although it might seem impossible that such a weak player as myself[...]
could beat a world-class player like Akiko, I am clearly a favourite.
My 5 out shots are more significant than her 19/36 to 17/36 edge
when she gets to roll.
So should I double?
I was thinking about this a bit in the taxi today, doing all the computationsAnother natural question, if you like these sorts of calculations,
in my head, and getting them right. As far as I can remember, I didn't analyse either of these positions before or see anyone else analyse them.
is whether it would be a double with a centered cube.
So these are obvious doubles with a centered cube.
But are they doubles with a centred cube?
The answer is no, because Brits aren't gamblers and willingly sacrifice equity to keep the stakes low.
So a double with a centered cube, but a hold with a centred cube is my answer.
Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on my
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
On 8/21/2022 6:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
So these are obvious doubles with a centered cube.
But are they doubles with a centred cube?
The answer is no, because Brits aren't gamblers and willingly
sacrifice equity to keep the stakes low.
So a double with a centered cube, but a hold with a centred cube is my
answer.
You've lost me. Can I buy a vowel?
On 8/21/2022 1:53 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on my
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
Here's the position:
XGID=-BB-----------------a--a--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 6 O: 7 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
The short answer is that you don't cube since you have to eat an 8 cube
when you roll one of the 31 numbers that don't win immediately, and
you're not favored to win.
It's close though and a good practical double against a human since some
will pass. But not Akiko.
Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on my
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
Now let's see what happens if everything's the same but all my four
checkers are on my acepoint.
"peps...@gmail.com" <peps...@gmail.com> writes:
Suppose I have two checkers on my deuce point, and two checkers on myTo my (slight) surprise, my Isight method gives a RD/T for this, which
ace point. Akiko has one checker on her 5 point and one checker on her
two point. It's my roll, we're playing for money, and I own the cube.
is wrong by 0.005, but correct if there is an 0.5 % chance that the
opponent will pass.
Now let's see what happens if everything's the same but all my four checkers are on my acepoint.Here, my Isight method gives a D/T, but no RD/T. To hold the cube is
wrong by 0.028. I can live with this size of errors, the small size of
which were the reason for my surprise, since non'ana;ytical methods
break down considerably for sub-10-length races. But see section 5.4, "Comments on Cub-offs", which might be very relevant for non-worldclass mental calculators, especially when the clock is ticking.
Best regards
Axel
Sysop: | Keyop |
---|---|
Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
Users: | 297 |
Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
Uptime: | 20:40:57 |
Calls: | 6,667 |
Calls today: | 1 |
Files: | 12,216 |
Messages: | 5,337,252 |