XGID=--BBBA-B----b-cB-e-cBbB---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O X O X |
| O X O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BBBA-B----b-cB-e-cBbB---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O X O X |
| O X O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

XG 3-ply plays 15/13 15/11 7/5. In fact, even if you force an
XG 3-ply evaluation of both 15/13 15/11 7/5 and 22/18(2), the
play 15/13 15/11 7/5 narrowly comes out ahead.

Advancing the anchor to the bar point puts pressure on O's
midpoint. The downside is that it reduces contact overall,
especially against O's 8pt. So O has an easier time adopting
the strategy of playing off her spares and waiting for a lucky
roll to clear her midpoint. Nevertheless, the rollout supports
22/18(2).

1. Rollout¹ 22/18(2) eq:-0.628
Player: 32.15% (G:4.19% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 67.85% (G:6.90% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.639..-0.616) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/13 15/11 7/5 eq:-0.710 (-0.082)
Player: 30.84% (G:4.22% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 69.16% (G:7.96% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.722..-0.698) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

Since X is ahead in the pip count, priming didn't seem to me to be the
right game plan. But other than making the bar point, there isn't really anything particularly constructive to do. Given that X can't clean up
his blots, making a broken five-prime at least interferes with the
possibility that O might attack, and escape her back checkers easily
while we're on the bar.

In the variant, X is anchored, and racing is a more viable game plan,
although XG still favors making the bar point.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.329
Player: 67.45% (G:19.49% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 32.55% (G:9.97% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.320..+0.339) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.101)
Player: 65.02% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 34.98% (G:11.46% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.220..+0.236) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/11(2) eq:+0.221 (-0.108)
Player: 64.69% (G:17.57% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 35.31% (G:11.91% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.213..+0.230) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/5 eq:+0.207 (-0.122)
Player: 64.33% (G:17.08% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 35.67% (G:11.93% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.197..+0.217) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 9/7(3) 6/4 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 63.00% (G:18.42% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 37.00% (G:11.65% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.185..+0.203) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 9/5 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 62.66% (G:18.57% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 37.34% (G:11.02% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.185..+0.202) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cB-b-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.464
Player: 72.83% (G:14.65% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 27.17% (G:4.63% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.457..+0.471) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) eq:+0.427 (-0.038)
Player: 72.89% (G:9.86% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 27.11% (G:4.19% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.420..+0.433) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)