XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X O | | X X |
| O X O X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X O | | X X |
| O X O X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 1
X to play 41

According to the rollouts below, the score makes a dramatic difference.
For money, the XG rollout puts the safe 23/22 15/11 on top (although
XG 3-ply plays 23/22 13/9*), but ATS the rollout says 23/22 15/11 is
a whopper, and that X has to hit for the gammons. Hitting leaves a
lot of return shots, but O has no board and her outfield points are
stripped.

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/9* eq:+0.312
Player: 54.34% (G:15.80% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 45.66% (G:11.66% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.304..+0.319) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/8 eq:+0.288 (-0.024)
Player: 53.95% (G:15.44% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 46.05% (G:10.79% B:1.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.280..+0.295) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 23/22 15/11 eq:+0.212 (-0.100)
Player: 56.42% (G:7.18% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 43.58% (G:6.56% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.201..+0.223) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X O | | X X |
| O X O X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 15/11 eq:+0.209
Player: 56.01% (G:9.03% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:7.23% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.203..+0.215) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/9* eq:+0.178 (-0.032)
Player: 53.98% (G:16.53% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 46.02% (G:11.27% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.170..+0.185) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/8 eq:+0.174 (-0.036)
Player: 53.52% (G:16.53% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 46.48% (G:10.61% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.166..+0.181) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/19/2022 8:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O  X     O    |   | O           X    |
 | X  O        O    |   | O                |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O  X        X  O |   | X     X          |
 | O  X     O  X  O |   | X     X          |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 144  O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 1
X to play 41

I tried to reply to this and somehow deleted the post instead of replying.

I'm fairly sure I would have made the safe play despite the match score.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)