XGID=--A--BDaCBa-bBa--b-cb-b-aA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--A--BDaCBa-bBa--b-cb-b-aA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

Hitting seemed way too loose to me, but a blot in the opponent's board
covers over a multitude of sins.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/10* eq:-0.273
Player: 43.41% (G:17.61% B:1.39%)
Opponent: 56.59% (G:26.01% B:2.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.285..-0.261) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/5 eq:-0.442 (-0.169)
Player: 38.02% (G:10.08% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 61.98% (G:14.70% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.453..-0.431) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--A--BDaCBa-bBa--b-cc-b--A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/5 eq:-0.564
Player: 34.74% (G:8.91% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 65.26% (G:14.96% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.572..-0.556) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/3 eq:-0.589 (-0.025)
Player: 34.38% (G:8.10% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 65.62% (G:16.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.596..-0.581) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/10* eq:-0.590 (-0.026)
Player: 36.49% (G:13.09% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 63.51% (G:28.50% B:2.66%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.603..-0.578) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Yes, definitely

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

I found a nice variant for this one; see below. I hit, but XG plays
safe. It seems that XG prefers to live with just two blots if that
is possible, but if X is going to leave three blots anyway (with 1s,
2s, and 6s to hit) then XG goes for the tempo hit.

Or as some analysts might say, in the variant, don't worry about
estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame; but in
this position, hitting obviously loses too many gammons.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 7/6 eq:-0.555
Player: 29.74% (G:6.48% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 70.26% (G:32.87% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.563..-0.546) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/5* eq:-0.631 (-0.076)
Player: 33.27% (G:8.67% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 66.73% (G:48.83% B:4.69%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.642..-0.619) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.615
Player: 34.74% (G:9.49% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 65.26% (G:48.74% B:6.87%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.626..-0.603) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 7/6 eq:-0.690 (-0.075)
Player: 27.85% (G:6.50% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 72.15% (G:41.14% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.699..-0.681) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aDBBD------------bbdbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aDBBD------------bbdbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

Volunteering a direct shot when your opponent has a five-point board
might seem insane to some, but X's situation is pretty desperate, so
he is willing to take some risks. But there are two problems with
hitting here. The first is that it loses a lot of extra gammons if
X gets another checker sent back. The second is that even if O does
not hit back (or even dances), X will probably have trouble getting
over O's five-prime. While X's priming chances aren't great, they're
not negligible; many of O's rolls weaken her prime and increase X's
chances significantly.

See also the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4 eq:-0.776
Player: 15.29% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 84.71% (G:14.43% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.780..-0.772) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 2/1* eq:-0.860 (-0.084)
Player: 15.74% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 84.26% (G:23.46% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.865..-0.854) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aDBBD-------------ddbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4 eq:-0.754
Player: 16.47% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 83.53% (G:15.09% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.759..-0.750) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 2/1* eq:-0.765 (-0.011)
Player: 19.64% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.36% (G:23.68% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.771..-0.760) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-a--E-D-AAeB---b-bb-b-AA:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-a--E-D-AAeB---b-bb-b-AA:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

X is outboarded and lacks structure. I believe it was Joe Sylvester who
said, "When defending, make defensive moves." Here, XG says that
anything other than the ugly-looking play 11/6 is a whopper or worse.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/6 eq:-0.586
Player: 35.69% (G:8.92% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 64.31% (G:22.05% B:1.33%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.604..-0.568) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/16 eq:-0.703 (-0.117)
Player: 35.45% (G:8.32% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 64.55% (G:26.52% B:1.96%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.720..-0.685) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/1* eq:-0.711 (-0.126)
Player: 35.12% (G:8.62% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:25.70% B:2.59%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.733..-0.690) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/3* eq:-0.740 (-0.154)
Player: 35.26% (G:9.03% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 64.74% (G:27.08% B:3.32%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.761..-0.719) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aB-EbB---aD----abcbbAaA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aB-EbB---aD----abcbbAaA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

I found a good variant for this one.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/18* eq:-0.079
Player: 44.44% (G:12.44% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 55.56% (G:27.12% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.090..-0.067) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.253 (-0.174)
Player: 35.79% (G:7.59% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 64.21% (G:17.34% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.261..-0.245) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aB-EbB---aD----accbbA-A:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ Bar/18* eq:-0.312
Player: 38.28% (G:10.35% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 61.72% (G:32.90% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.322..-0.302) - [81.6%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.318 (-0.006)
Player: 33.28% (G:6.41% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 66.72% (G:16.59% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.327..-0.309) - [18.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-B--BcD-BaABd----cBb--b---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O |
| O X | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 170 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-B--BcD-BaABd----cBb--b---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O |
| O X | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 170 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

X is way ahead in the race. If he hits, he leaves a lot of blots lying
around which will give O a chance to hit back and catch up in the race.
By this logic, X should just play safe with something like 10/4, right?

The trouble is that 10/4 leaves X totally stripped in the outfield, and
likely to leave blots under less favorable conditions next turn, or the
turn after that. By hitting now when O's position is still weak, he
gains some time to clear his outside points in relative safety.

In the variant, I have given O a much stronger forward position.

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/9* eq:+0.544
Player: 60.21% (G:26.27% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 39.79% (G:8.55% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.534..+0.554) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 10/6 eq:+0.473 (-0.071)
Player: 59.38% (G:24.74% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 40.62% (G:8.53% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.464..+0.482) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 10/4 eq:+0.355 (-0.189)
Player: 58.85% (G:17.09% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 41.15% (G:7.83% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.341..+0.368) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 10/8 6/2 eq:+0.315 (-0.229)
Player: 58.16% (G:16.80% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 41.84% (G:8.25% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.301..+0.329) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B--BcD-BaABc---bbBbb-----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O |
| O O X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 eq:+0.073
Player: 52.30% (G:14.24% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 47.70% (G:9.88% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.066..+0.080) - [72.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 10/6 eq:+0.070 (-0.003)
Player: 50.77% (G:20.46% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 49.23% (G:11.07% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.060..+0.079) - [27.9%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/8 6/2 eq:+0.056 (-0.017)
Player: 52.03% (G:14.01% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 47.97% (G:10.14% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.049..+0.064) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/9* eq:+0.052 (-0.021)
Player: 50.62% (G:20.67% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 49.38% (G:11.61% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.042..+0.062) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

2 Haziran 2022 Perşembe tarihinde saat 15:41:11 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

X has a solid phantom six-prime. And these kinds of positions that need 6-1 are mostly D/P in my experience. Hitting is definitely not even an alternative.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

3 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 15:47:05 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

On 6/3/2022 4:34 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

X has a solid phantom six-prime. And these kinds of positions that need 6-1 are mostly D/P in my experience. Hitting is definitely not even an alternative.

What's your play?

---
Tim Chow

at first glance my play would be 13/8

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/3/2022 4:34 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

X has a solid phantom six-prime. And these kinds of positions that need 6-1 are mostly D/P in my experience. Hitting is definitely not even an alternative.

What's your play?

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

The subject line was sort of a trick question. Of course you don't hit
here. I posed the question that way so that the reader might not think
too hard about the choice between 13/9 6/5 and 13/8. The purpose of
13/9 6/5 is clear enough...if X can make a six-prime then he almost
clinches the game. The question is whether it's too risky to give O a
chance to turn the game around by hitting both blots. According to XG,
the risk is worth it. Even if O hits immediately with an ace, she still
has to escape her straggler with an ace followed by a 6 (unless she can
get X to break his five-prime with an awkward roll, which is not too
likely). See also the variant, where XG still favors leaving two blots
even when O has a double shot at the midpoint blot.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:+0.593
Player: 78.02% (G:15.73% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 21.98% (G:4.97% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.586..+0.600) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.528 (-0.065)
Player: 75.30% (G:15.46% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 24.70% (G:4.99% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.522..+0.534) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-BBCBB--abB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:+0.513
Player: 74.88% (G:15.80% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 25.12% (G:6.09% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.503..+0.524) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.496 (-0.018)
Player: 73.65% (G:16.67% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 26.35% (G:5.70% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.489..+0.503) - [0.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aAB-CC-A-B--A---abe-bbbB-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aAB-CC-A-B--A---abe-bbbB-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

Hitting is the DMP play, but loses too many gammons according to the
rollout below. Modify the position by cleaning up any of X's three
blots, and XG hits.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 5/2 eq:-0.400
Player: 39.84% (G:4.79% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 60.16% (G:17.91% B:1.75%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.416..-0.384) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/17* eq:-0.521 (-0.121)
Player: 43.44% (G:12.43% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 56.56% (G:36.60% B:6.56%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.542..-0.499) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9 5/2 eq:-0.527 (-0.128)
Player: 36.26% (G:4.19% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 63.74% (G:15.56% B:1.33%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.542..-0.513) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/2 eq:-0.562 (-0.162)
Player: 35.12% (G:4.43% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:14.89% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.580..-0.544) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CBCBBB--b-A----cbbbc--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/9/2022 9:08 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-CBCBBB--b-A----cbbbc--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |    X             |   | O  O  O  O  O    | +---+  |                  |   | O  O  O  O  O    | | 2 |  |                  |   | O           O    | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X     X          |  | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  X          |
 | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  X     O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 102  O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

Does hitting win more gammons? Probably, but not very many.

Does it win more games? One weakness I have is being too worried about
getting hit and trapped on the ace point, and this may be one of those positions.

What tips it for me is that 14/6 or 14/8 6/4 leave the prime stripped
and stacked, making it more likely that X will be forced to leave a shot
while O escapes with tempo.

The first hitting play that came to mind was 8/2* 4/2, but I think
holding the prime is more important than covering the deuce point. For
X to really be in trouble O needs to hit and then X needs to enter with
an ace (about a 1/9 proposition) and even then it's not over.

14/8 4/2*

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 11:00:48 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:

On 8/9/2022 9:08 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-CBCBBB--b-A----cbbbc--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

Does hitting win more gammons? Probably, but not very many.

Does it win more games? One weakness I have is being too worried about getting hit and trapped on the ace point, and this may be one of those positions.

What tips it for me is that 14/6 or 14/8 6/4 leave the prime stripped
and stacked, making it more likely that X will be forced to leave a shot while O escapes with tempo.

The first hitting play that came to mind was 8/2* 4/2, but I think
holding the prime is more important than covering the deuce point. For
X to really be in trouble O needs to hit and then X needs to enter with
an ace (about a 1/9 proposition) and even then it's not over.

14/8 4/2*

I suspect if you give the opponent (a lot) more timing it will be correct to play the quiet 14/6. As is, it would take quite the sequence to be hit and the opponent win the counter priming option. (you need to enter quickly is the first big hurdle)

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CBCBBB--b-A----cbbbc--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

This one is a difficult judgment call IMO. Playing safe with 14/6
creates a somewhat inflexible position that may force X to leave a
blot later in more unfavorable circumstances, but 14/8 4/2* risks
getting a checker sent back and losing the priming battle. The
rollout below favors hitting, but as Stick remarked, if you improve
O's priming chances then XG favors the safe play (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 14/8 4/2* eq:+0.747
Player: 86.07% (G:8.46% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 13.93% (G:1.95% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.741..+0.753) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.692 (-0.055)
Player: 84.85% (G:5.72% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 15.15% (G:1.97% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.686..+0.699) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/8 9/7 eq:+0.652 (-0.095)
Player: 82.86% (G:5.09% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 17.14% (G:1.63% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.648..+0.656) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.623 (-0.124)
Player: 82.19% (G:5.25% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 17.81% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.616..+0.629) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-CBCBBB--b-A---acbbbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.682
Player: 84.47% (G:4.72% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 15.53% (G:1.48% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.677..+0.687) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 4/2* eq:+0.653 (-0.029)
Player: 82.17% (G:8.19% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 17.83% (G:2.44% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.645..+0.660) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/8 9/7 eq:+0.652 (-0.030)
Player: 82.85% (G:5.02% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 17.15% (G:1.76% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.647..+0.656) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---bBaC-DB---B--a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/15/2022 9:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---bBaC-DB---B--a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O     O |   | O  O  O  X  O  O |
 | X                |   | O  O  O  X  O  O |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                | +---+
 |          X  X    |   | X     X  O       | | 2 |
 |          X  X    |   | X  O  X  O       | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 146  O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

Three point vs three point anchor game. I don't see a lot of those.

Seems like timing is the main issue here, X has it, O does not. In a
roll or three X will be able to leap out and own the outfield while O
either exposes a direct shot or crunches her board. So, the hit seems premature.

But with the strong board, I don't want to volunteer a shot. I guess
that leaves 6/1, which looks ugly, but seem like the best alternative.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 1:01:31 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 9/15/2022 9:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---bBaC-DB---B--a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

Three point vs three point anchor game. I don't see a lot of those.

Seems like timing is the main issue here, X has it, O does not. In a
roll or three X will be able to leap out and own the outfield while O
either exposes a direct shot or crunches her board. So, the hit seems premature.

But with the strong board, I don't want to volunteer a shot. I guess
that leaves 6/1, which looks ugly, but seem like the best alternative.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Which play do you make at dmp? Is it super clear that that play is correct at dmp?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---bBaC-DB---B--a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

I didn't consider, or roll out, 6/1, which XGR+ says is a double
whopper. The alternative to hitting that I considered was 13/8,
which gives O six hitting rolls, and further stacks up on the
heavy 8pt. By contrast, in the variant below, 14/9 leaves only
four hitting rolls, and puts a spare on the 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5* eq:+0.368
Player: 57.06% (G:15.47% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 42.94% (G:18.10% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.358..+0.379) - [83.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/4 eq:+0.361 (-0.007)
Player: 56.95% (G:15.06% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 43.05% (G:18.24% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.352..+0.371) - [16.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.227 (-0.141)
Player: 52.31% (G:11.33% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 47.69% (G:14.25% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.218..+0.237) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---bBaC-DB----B-a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 eq:+0.377
Player: 56.70% (G:12.92% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 43.30% (G:12.50% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.367..+0.387) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5* eq:+0.308 (-0.069)
Player: 54.91% (G:14.73% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 45.09% (G:18.99% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.294..+0.322) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-cCB-CB-b-C---Babb-bb--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-cCB-CB-b-C---Babb-bb--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

If X is going to leave a shot, then making the bar point is going to
be better than hitting. The question is whether X should leave a shot
at all. Although 8/5 is a bit ugly, I'm still a little surprised that
XG volunteers a shot here. See the variant for comparison, where I have strengthened O's board and moved O's straggler back a pip.

1. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.667
Player: 66.07% (G:14.68% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 33.93% (G:10.67% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.654..+0.680) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/2* eq:+0.585 (-0.082)
Player: 63.75% (G:14.47% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 36.25% (G:10.91% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.571..+0.598) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.579 (-0.088)
Player: 63.50% (G:13.41% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 36.50% (G:9.82% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.567..+0.591) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--cCB-CB-b-C---Babbbb---:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.520
Player: 61.55% (G:13.17% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 38.45% (G:10.64% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.512..+0.528) - [58.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.518 (-0.001)
Player: 62.42% (G:12.10% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 37.58% (G:11.57% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.509..+0.528) - [41.7%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)