• I would call this a blitz

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 14 09:32:30 2022
    XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O O X |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 15 09:18:37 2022
    On 8/14/2022 9:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O     O  O    |   | O  O  O        X |  |             O    |   | O  O  O        X |  |             O    |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X  X             |  | O           X    |   | X  X        X    |
     | O        X  X    |   | X  X        X  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 131  O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33


    Making the three point seems automatic. Then 13/10 looks better than 8/5
    or 6/2. What am I missing?

    Oh, I see it now. 13/1*

    But in a blitz the priority is point > hit > build > escape IIRC.

    So I'll make the three point. and bring one down from the midpoint.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 17 08:23:11 2022
    XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O O X |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    Ah_clem cites a rule of thumb that I like to use: point > hit >
    build > escape. Of course there are always exceptions, and
    this is a position where XG prefers to hit with 13/1* rather
    than make the 3pt. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. At
    first I thought it had something to do with O's outfield blots,
    but after checking a few variants, I no longer think that's the
    key factor. It does seem to have something to do with the lack
    of a good fourth 3 to play; see the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/1* eq:+0.310
    Player: 51.49% (G:36.68% B:2.98%)
    Opponent: 48.51% (G:15.77% B:1.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.293..+0.327) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.234 (-0.076)
    Player: 48.78% (G:30.69% B:2.90%)
    Opponent: 51.22% (G:14.32% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.217..+0.251) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/10 9/3 6/3 eq:+0.172 (-0.139)
    Player: 47.85% (G:29.08% B:2.58%)
    Opponent: 52.15% (G:13.84% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.155..+0.188) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aaB--BC-CB--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O O X |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    1. Rollout¹ 9/3(2) eq:+0.298
    Player: 50.24% (G:31.37% B:3.08%)
    Opponent: 49.76% (G:14.13% B:0.86%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.290..+0.307) - [85.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/1* eq:+0.292 (-0.007)
    Player: 51.47% (G:34.85% B:3.01%)
    Opponent: 48.53% (G:15.55% B:1.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.283..+0.300) - [14.6%]

    3. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.279 (-0.020)
    Player: 50.60% (G:31.33% B:3.02%)
    Opponent: 49.40% (G:14.70% B:1.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.273..+0.284) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)