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  • Would you call this a blitz?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 13 09:36:42 2022
    XGID=a-BA-BC-B--AcB-b-c-db-B---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Aug 13 12:52:17 2022
    On 8/13/2022 9:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BA-BC-B--AcB-b-c-db-B---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O    |   | O  O     X       |
     | X     O     O    |   | O  O     X       |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X  X        X    |
     | O  X        X    |   | X  X     X  X    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 132  O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    Don't know if it's a blitz yet, but that's how I'll play it.

    Three point board, an anchor and an opponent's checker on the bar.
    Since I can't hit or point I'll build. But I think I want to keep the
    midpoint for now so 11/5 8/7.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 16 09:14:44 2022
    XGID=a-BA-BC-B--AcB-b-c-db-B---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    X has 10 checkers in the zone but O has only one checker back, and
    her position is otherwise pretty strong. This is maybe a borderline
    blitz but the tide can very easily turn against X in a hurry. XG's
    move is the un-blitz-like 22/16 3/2, in effect hedging X's bets.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 3/2 eq:+0.170
    Player: 53.34% (G:18.27% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 46.66% (G:13.01% B:0.83%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.158..+0.182) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 3/2 eq:+0.091 (-0.079)
    Player: 50.47% (G:18.41% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 49.53% (G:10.23% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.080..+0.102) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/5 eq:+0.016 (-0.154)
    Player: 49.57% (G:19.05% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 50.43% (G:16.08% B:1.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.002..+0.030) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/16 11/10 eq:+0.012 (-0.158)
    Player: 48.94% (G:19.13% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 51.06% (G:16.37% B:1.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.002..+0.025) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/5 eq:-0.032 (-0.202)
    Player: 47.58% (G:20.33% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 52.42% (G:15.05% B:0.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.045..-0.018) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Aug 16 11:19:06 2022
    On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 9:14:51 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BA-BC-B--AcB-b-c-db-B---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    X has 10 checkers in the zone but O has only one checker back, and
    her position is otherwise pretty strong. This is maybe a borderline
    blitz but the tide can very easily turn against X in a hurry. XG's
    move is the un-blitz-like 22/16 3/2, in effect hedging X's bets.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 3/2 eq:+0.170
    Player: 53.34% (G:18.27% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 46.66% (G:13.01% B:0.83%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.158..+0.182) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 3/2 eq:+0.091 (-0.079)
    Player: 50.47% (G:18.41% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 49.53% (G:10.23% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.080..+0.102) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/5 eq:+0.016 (-0.154)
    Player: 49.57% (G:19.05% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 50.43% (G:16.08% B:1.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.002..+0.030) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/16 11/10 eq:+0.012 (-0.158)
    Player: 48.94% (G:19.13% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 51.06% (G:16.37% B:1.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.002..+0.025) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/5 eq:-0.032 (-0.202)
    Player: 47.58% (G:20.33% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 52.42% (G:15.05% B:0.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.045..-0.018) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    This would be considered a blitz before the roll, not a blitz after.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)