• 5a 3a recube action from the bar

    From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 8 11:40:38 2022
    Recube to negate gammons or hope to run this one off?

    XGID=aCbBFa-a--a--------babbb--:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

    X:X O:You
    Score is X:0 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | X O O X O |
    | | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 33 X-O: 0-2/5
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Mon Aug 8 23:46:23 2022
    On 8/8/2022 11:40 AM, ah...Clem wrote:

    Recube to negate gammons or hope to run this one off?

    XGID=aCbBFa-a--a--------babbb--:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

    X:X O:You
    Score is X:0 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | X O O X O |
    | | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 33 X-O: 0-2/5
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    You don't need much of an excuse to rewhip at this score, but you do
    need market losers. What loses X's market? If X dances and O rolls
    62 52 42, does he lose his market? I don't think so. ND/T for me.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Mon Aug 8 21:09:06 2022
    On Monday, August 8, 2022 at 11:40:42 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
    Recube to negate gammons or hope to run this one off?

    XGID=aCbBFa-a--a--------babbb--:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

    X:X O:You
    Score is X:0 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | X O O X O |
    | | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 33 X-O: 0-2/5
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Shouldn't redouble without market losing sequence(s) and there are none. Easy hold.

    Stick

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  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 10 10:59:32 2022
    I was playing O and was surprised to see the rewhip here. But it did
    make some sense - unless X turns it around he's losing a gammon most of
    the time. The player stated that "I had no choice but to recube", which
    isn't exactly true, but I made a note to take a look later.

    As Tim and Stick observe, and the rollout confirms, no market losers
    implies no cube.

    In the variant, I've given X a blot to shoot at and filled in the five
    point. Clear rewhip even with only a 44% GWC.


    XGID=aCbBFa-a--a--------babbb--:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | X O O X O |
    | | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 33 X-O: 0-2/5
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 16.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 83.31% (G:71.69% B:38.03%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 16.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 83.39% (G:71.96% B:19.94%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=-1.330, Double=-1.196

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: -1.156
    Redouble/Take: -1.196 (-0.040)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+2.156)

    Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (-1.164..-1.149)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (-1.204..-1.188)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 6 minutes 59 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



    Variant:

    XGID=aCbAFa-a-----------bbbbb--:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | X O O X O |
    | | | O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 30 X-O: 0-2/5
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in XG Roller++
    Player Winning Chances: 44.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.43% (G:39.11% B:14.09%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.471, Double=+0.026

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: -0.101 (-0.127)
    Redouble/Take: +0.026
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.974)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Thu Aug 11 09:10:01 2022
    On 8/10/2022 10:59 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
    I was playing O and was surprised to see the rewhip here. But it did
    make some sense - unless X turns it around he's losing a gammon most of
    the time. The player stated that "I had no choice but to recube", which
    isn't exactly true, but I made a note to take a look later.

    I've definitely heard the following kind of reasoning: "If I lose
    this game, it will be a gammon loss. Therefore, I lose nothing by
    redoubling." If it were literally true that 100% of your losses
    were gammon losses then it would be correct that redoubling would
    lose nothing. But hardly ever is it literally true that 100% of
    your losses are gammon losses. Such players often forget that
    sometimes they'll hit that last-ditch shot, but lose anyway after
    saving the gammon. So as long as some of your losses aren't gammon
    losses, you're risking *something* by redoubling, and hence you
    need some reason (i.e., enough market losers) to redouble.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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