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  • Choose the lesser evil

    From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 2 12:58:14 2022
    XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Aug 3 15:11:06 2022
    On 8/2/2022 3:58 PM, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42


    Breaking the bar point gives O a chance to escape with tempo, or just
    escape. If we hold it she still has a lot of work to do even if we're
    stuck on the bar. 22/18 for sure, then 4/2 looks a bit more flexible
    than 6/4.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Aug 4 09:43:03 2022
    On 8/3/2022 3:11 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 8/2/2022 3:58 PM, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
      +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
      |          O       |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
      |          O       |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
      |                  |   | O           O    |
      |                  |   |             O    |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |                  |BAR|                  |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |                  |   | X     X     X    | >>   |                X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
      |                X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
      +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 100  O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42


    Breaking the bar point gives O a chance to escape with tempo, or just escape.  If we hold it she still has a lot of work to do even if we're
    stuck on the bar. 22/18 for sure, then 4/2 looks a bit more flexible
    than 6/4.

    It's possible to hold the bar point and hold the anchor, with 6/2 4/2.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 4 09:46:53 2022
    XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    Breaking anchor exposes X to a whole lot of shots, but according
    to XG, stacking up on the 2pt is even worse. See the variant for
    comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.284
    Player: 57.25% (G:15.75% B:1.17%)
    Opponent: 42.75% (G:10.49% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.271..+0.297) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/18 6/4 eq:+0.241 (-0.043)
    Player: 56.64% (G:15.00% B:1.04%)
    Opponent: 43.36% (G:10.46% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.227..+0.255) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.201 (-0.083)
    Player: 55.73% (G:10.15% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 44.27% (G:8.98% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.190..+0.211) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bBBD-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 102 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.398
    Player: 60.59% (G:12.01% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 39.41% (G:7.99% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.390..+0.406) - [76.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.004)
    Player: 59.66% (G:17.26% B:1.22%)
    Opponent: 40.34% (G:10.12% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.384..+0.403) - [23.3%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)