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  • A boring position

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 30 03:55:04 2022
    Well, I found it interesting, or I wouldn't have posted it.
    But I'm sure many people would find it boring, too.
    Here (rather shamefully), I miscounted the pips and doubled.
    I wouldn't have doubled if I had counted correctly.

    What interests me is that, although XG is very close to a beaver,
    the double isn't so terrible (by my standards). Just a 0.03 loss.

    In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
    given short shrift. If we don't consider beavers, then the
    action is too obviously ND/T to be worth posing as a problem.

    Paul

    XGID=-BBBBBBA----a-----Bdbcbab-:0:0:1:00:14:27:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 3:0:10

    Score is X:14 O:27. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 85 O: 69 X-O: 14-27
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in XG Roller+
    Player Winning Chances: 60.12% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.88% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.214, Double=+0.404

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.051
    Double/Take: +0.021 (-0.030)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.949)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.9%

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jul 30 08:58:52 2022
    On 7/30/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
    given short shrift.

    There's a good reason for this. In practice, decisions to
    beaver involve a heavy dose of non-mathematical considerations.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jul 30 10:21:59 2022
    On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:58:56 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 7/30/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
    given short shrift.
    There's a good reason for this. In practice, decisions to
    beaver involve a heavy dose of non-mathematical considerations.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Yes.
    Let's ignore Kauder paradoxes and let's assume equal strength play.
    A player might reason that their equity is improved by beavering.
    However, the other player has reasoned that their equity is improved by doubling.
    So we need a meta-judgment about whether the opponent is more likely to be correct
    than we are.

    Paul

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