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  • 4-away/4-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 28 08:47:18 2022
    XGID=aB-BaBB--AA-dC---b-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 148 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Jul 28 17:12:04 2022
    On 7/28/2022 8:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-BaBB--AA-dC---b-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O     X |
     | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X  X     X     X |
     | O     X  X       |   | X  X  O  X     X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 136  O: 148 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    This is a fairly "normal" score. The take point is deeper due to the
    recube vig but the price of gammon is higher since a doubled gammon wins
    the match.

    5s and 6s are usually market losers as is 11 and 22. Has X lost the
    market already? Very possibly. I'd ship it since the take is unclear
    and it gives a human opponent a chance to make an error.

    X owns both ace points, which is usually enough of a liability that I'll
    say take.


    D/T.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 29 00:39:07 2022
    29 Temmuz 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 00:12:10 UTC+3 itibarıyla ah...Clem şunları yazdı:
    On 7/28/2022 8:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-BaBB--AA-dC---b-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 148 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This is a fairly "normal" score. The take point is deeper due to the
    recube vig but the price of gammon is higher since a doubled gammon wins
    the match.

    5s and 6s are usually market losers as is 11 and 22. Has X lost the
    market already? Very possibly. I'd ship it since the take is unclear
    and it gives a human opponent a chance to make an error.

    X owns both ace points, which is usually enough of a liability that I'll
    say take.


    D/T.
    We'll enter from the bar against a 4-point board. Moreover, the opponent will most likely send the second checker to the bar. I'll never take it.
    I have tested such positions a lot. To accept the cube, the opponent must have 9 or less men in the attacking zone.
    Of course I would turn the cube.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to atila...@gmail.com on Fri Jul 29 08:03:43 2022
    On 7/29/2022 3:39 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
    We'll enter from the bar against a 4-point board. Moreover, the opponent will most likely send the second checker to the bar. I'll never take it.
    I have tested such positions a lot. To accept the cube, the opponent must have 9 or less men in the attacking zone.

    Is this rule of thumb specifically for the 4-away/4-away score?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 30 09:02:15 2022
    XGID=aB-BaBB--AA-dC---b-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 148 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This is a trivial take for money, but this ain't money. Again,
    one of the main reasons I'm posting this is because XG 3-ply took
    my double here. But the rollout below says that taking is a
    double whopper with cheese at this score.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 60.14% (G:39.00% B:0.78%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.86% (G:12.86% B:1.42%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 60.43% (G:40.50% B:1.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.57% (G:13.30% B:2.64%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.640 (-0.360)
    Double/Take: +1.267 (+0.267)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.622..+0.657)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.029 (+1.238..+1.295)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Thu Aug 4 11:26:33 2022
    On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 5:12:10 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 7/28/2022 8:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-BaBB--AA-dC---b-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 148 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This is a fairly "normal" score. The take point is deeper due to the
    recube vig but the price of gammon is higher since a doubled gammon wins
    the match.

    5s and 6s are usually market losers as is 11 and 22. Has X lost the
    market already? Very possibly. I'd ship it since the take is unclear
    and it gives a human opponent a chance to make an error.

    X owns both ace points, which is usually enough of a liability that I'll
    say take.


    D/T.

    This is far removed from resembling a normal score.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 24 10:50:33 2022
    XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Sep 25 16:21:34 2022
    On 9/24/2022 10:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O        O  X  O |
     | X           O    |   | O        O  X  O |  |             O    |   |                  |
     |             O    |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O  X        X    |   | X           X    |
     | O  X        X    |   | X  O     X  X    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 141  O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    I might miss this on OTB, but X has a lot of numbers that either point
    on her head or hit and make the three point. On the other side, X has
    buried two checkers on the deuce point and has two stuck on the other
    deuce point. All X's outfield points are stripped.


    Not sure if the score matters, but 11 in the zone with one on the bar
    says action double, and X owning both deuce points and only 2 homeboard
    points says take.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 26 08:28:26 2022
    XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    4-away/4-away can be a tricky score when it comes to gammonish
    positions. Generally speaking, in a blitzish position, you should
    be quicker (than money) to double and quicker to pass. The gammon
    value on a 2-cube is close to 1. There is a caveat, which is that
    the player who takes a 2-cube has the option of recubing to 4. This
    will obviously kill gammons, and the recube to 4 has a high takepoint
    (around 33%). Nevertheless, it's usually the case that you have to
    be wary of taking blitz cubes.

    Based on the above principles, I passed this cube and was surprised
    that XGR+ dinged me for a whopper. However, the rollout below
    exonerates my decision, calling it a borderline take/pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 60.61% (G:31.19% B:0.87%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.39% (G:11.90% B:1.07%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 61.06% (G:32.38% B:1.59%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.94% (G:13.42% B:2.31%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.620 (-0.380)
    Double/Take: +1.002 (+0.002)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.614..+0.625)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.991..+1.013)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)