• Action double

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 24 09:38:37 2022
    XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X O X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Jul 24 12:39:52 2022
    On Sunday, July 24, 2022 at 2:38:38 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X O X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Big pass.
    I don't think it's TG though (assuming non-Jacoby).
    I don't think it's an "action double" because an action double means (to me) that:
    1) You have a threat that you're an underdog to make.
    2) Your opponent is doing fine if you miss the threat.
    3) You double anyway because the threat is somewhat (though less than 50%) likely to happen,
    and you hugely lose your market if so.

    Here, we're favourites to hit and, even if we don't hit, we're big favourites anyway.

    It seems clear that the opponent has enough play that we're not TG.
    If we miss the shot, the opponent has a huge ask to overcome the race deficit and get past
    our strong broken prime.
    The stack on the 5 point is horrible for the opponent, giving huge containment difficulties
    for the opponent if we do get hit.

    I think taking would be something like a 0.3 blunder.
    Let's see what the hitting probability (for the blot on our 9 point) is:
    4 or 2 gives 5/9.
    A combo 2 adds 1/36.
    A combo 4 adds 31 which is 1/18.
    Now, we need to consider nines.
    33 doesn't work.
    54 has already been counted.
    So we only get 63 for another 1/18.

    So our hitting probability is 25/36.
    But pointing on the ace point blot is pretty devastating too.

    Paul

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  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Jul 24 17:06:24 2022
    On 7/24/2022 9:38 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O  O     O       |
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O       |
     |                  |   |    O             |
     |                  |   |    O             |
     |                  |   |    O             |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X  X     X  X    |
     | O  X     O     X |   | X  X     X  X  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 107  O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Most hits are market losers and I'm not seeing many bad sequences, so
    O'Hagen's law would say ship it.

    X has the better position and a lead in the race for 2 of 3 PRAT, which
    implies D/T. But the fact that X is on roll means the threats are in
    his favor, so maybe it's a pass, or even TG.

    OTB, I'd probably take a shake and see what happens. It seems to flip
    to TG fairly often. But thinking about it some more, if I'm not sure if
    it's a pass or not it must be a cube, or at least a practical one
    against humans since some will get the take decision wrong.

    I'll say D/P.




    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jul 26 08:47:04 2022
    XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X O X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    XG says this one is clearly too good. I often fail to consider that
    I might be TG when my opponent is not on the bar.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 79.64% (G:37.89% B:0.97%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 20.36% (G:4.54% B:0.31%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 79.80% (G:38.70% B:0.79%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 20.20% (G:5.12% B:0.47%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.080
    Double/Take: +1.730 (+0.650)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.080)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+1.071..+1.089)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.718..+1.742)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jan 4 09:27:20 2024
    XGID=-b-C-CE--A-Aa-a-Acbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 114 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jan 6 17:18:02 2024
    XGID=-b-C-CE--A-Aa-a-Acbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 114 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Here I overestimated the potency of my hitting rolls. According to
    the XG rollout below, even after a favorable exchange such as rolling
    43 (played 24/21 16/12*) followed by a dance, X doesn't lose his market.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 50.99% (G:20.73% B:2.26%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 49.01% (G:9.95% B:0.55%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 50.80% (G:20.74% B:2.28%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 49.20% (G:9.97% B:0.57%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.156
    Double/Take: -0.135 (-0.290)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.844)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.6%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.141..+0.170)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (-0.155..-0.114)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------------------------
    After 24/21 16/12*, dance
    -------------------------

    XGID=ab-C-CE--A-AA-a--cbdbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.82% (G:30.09% B:3.76%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.18% (G:4.24% B:0.21%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.94% (G:30.25% B:4.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.06% (G:4.36% B:0.23%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.801 (-0.097)
    Double/Take: +0.898
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.102)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.790..+0.813)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.879..+0.917)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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