• I ain't gonna roll this out

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 23 03:55:40 2022
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Jul 24 08:35:55 2022
    On 7/23/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    I would make the 1pt. It gives O an immediate 64 or 43 to hit,
    but it should reduce future shot jeopardy.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Jul 24 12:25:34 2022
    On Sunday, July 24, 2022 at 1:35:57 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 7/23/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10

    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    I would make the 1pt. It gives O an immediate 64 or 43 to hit,
    but it should reduce future shot jeopardy.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I'm surprised you would do that.
    XG's analysis (but I didn't do a rollout) says that your play is about 0.08 worse
    than making the 9 point (which I correctly did).
    Note that, if we do get hit after making the ace point, the most likely parlay isn't an immediate
    hit with 64 or 43 but a non-immediate hit after we fail to clean up.
    The clean-up is far more difficult with your play than mine.

    I was 50/50 between your play and mine but, ironically, I made the correct play through
    one of your own adages, even though you missed the right play yourself!

    You once said (something like): "When in doubt make the play that is in the opposite direction
    to the errors you tend to make."
    Since I get dinged far more for being too blotty and bold than for being too conservative,
    your adage led me to blotlessly make the 9 point.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Aug 4 11:14:27 2022
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Aug 4 15:10:25 2022
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:14:28 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick
    The right play becomes clear to me when I think about all the similar positions I've lost equity by over-blotting.
    That's my route to correctness.

    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Aug 4 21:12:35 2022
    On 8/4/2022 6:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Nothing ever blows a hole in Stick's arguments. Stick always
    just blows harder.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Aug 4 18:16:06 2022
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:10:26 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:14:28 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick
    The right play becomes clear to me when I think about all the similar positions I've lost equity by over-blotting.
    That's my route to correctness.

    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Paul

    I said if _you_ know the dmp play is clear, make that play. What does it matter what Tim knows unless he's your doubles partner? Tim isn't a fan of using this advice, he either can't implement it for whatever reason or he simply hates something that
    multiple best players in the world use.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Aug 5 04:19:18 2022
    On 8/4/2022 9:16 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    I said if _you_ know the dmp play is clear, make that play. What does it matter what Tim knows unless he's your doubles partner? Tim isn't a fan of using this advice, he either can't implement it for whatever reason or he simply hates something that
    multiple best players in the world use.

    See what I mean, Paul?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Aug 5 01:46:46 2022
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 2:16:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:10:26 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:14:28 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick
    The right play becomes clear to me when I think about all the similar positions I've lost equity by over-blotting.
    That's my route to correctness.

    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Paul
    I said if _you_ know the dmp play is clear, make that play. What does it matter what Tim knows unless he's your doubles partner? Tim isn't a fan of using this advice, he either can't implement it for whatever reason or he simply hates something that
    multiple best players in the world use.

    Stick

    It matters (to me) what Tim knows because he's a strong (PR 4.5) player who misplayed the position.
    So I'm trying to see what went wrong for him.
    For example, he could have been wrongly failing to apply your DMP rule in a situation where your DMP rule is better than a baguette with mature red Leicester cheese and sliced tomato.
    Or he might not realise that making the 9 point is best at DMP.

    Perhaps "If you know the DMP play is clear, make that play." But, if hardly anyone knows the DMP play, the advice has limited utility.
    If you know next week's winning lottery numbers, you should play them.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Aug 5 11:15:11 2022
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 4:46:47 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 2:16:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:10:26 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:14:28 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick
    The right play becomes clear to me when I think about all the similar positions I've lost equity by over-blotting.
    That's my route to correctness.

    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Paul
    I said if _you_ know the dmp play is clear, make that play. What does it matter what Tim knows unless he's your doubles partner? Tim isn't a fan of using this advice, he either can't implement it for whatever reason or he simply hates something that
    multiple best players in the world use.

    Stick
    It matters (to me) what Tim knows because he's a strong (PR 4.5) player who misplayed the position.
    So I'm trying to see what went wrong for him.
    For example, he could have been wrongly failing to apply your DMP rule in a situation where your DMP rule is better than a baguette with mature red Leicester cheese and sliced tomato.
    Or he might not realise that making the 9 point is best at DMP.

    Perhaps "If you know the DMP play is clear, make that play." But, if hardly anyone knows the DMP play, the advice has limited utility.
    If you know next week's winning lottery numbers, you should play them.

    Paul

    Did you know the dmp play or fail to think about it? (or both/neither?)

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Aug 6 02:37:18 2022
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 7:15:12 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 4:46:47 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 2:16:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:10:26 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:14:28 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, July 23, 2022 at 6:55:41 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't feel like rolling this one out.
    I'm just trusting the bot this time.
    There are only two real candidates.
    Do we make the acepoint or the ninepoint?
    For me, it was a complete toss-up but fortunately
    I won the toss.

    What would you play?

    Paul

    XGID=a-DB-CDb--A--A----acbbbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:16:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:16. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 76 O: 114 X-O: 0-16
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41
    Making the 9pt is clearly the dmp play. Should be asking yourself during the tough decisions if one play is the clear dmp play. If one is and you're unsure which play is correct it's simple to make the dmp play and be right all day long.

    Rollout says making the 9pt is correct by ~.055.

    Stick
    The right play becomes clear to me when I think about all the similar positions I've lost equity by over-blotting.
    That's my route to correctness.

    I'd like to ask Tim (and in fact this sentence is intended to represent that question) whether he would have known to
    make the 9 point at DMP.
    If not, it kind of blows a hole in your argument.

    Paul
    I said if _you_ know the dmp play is clear, make that play. What does it matter what Tim knows unless he's your doubles partner? Tim isn't a fan of using this advice, he either can't implement it for whatever reason or he simply hates something
    that multiple best players in the world use.

    Stick
    It matters (to me) what Tim knows because he's a strong (PR 4.5) player who misplayed the position.
    So I'm trying to see what went wrong for him.
    For example, he could have been wrongly failing to apply your DMP rule in a situation where your DMP rule is better than a baguette with mature red Leicester cheese and sliced tomato.
    Or he might not realise that making the 9 point is best at DMP.

    Perhaps "If you know the DMP play is clear, make that play." But, if hardly anyone knows the DMP play, the advice has limited utility.
    If you know next week's winning lottery numbers, you should play them.

    Paul
    Did you know the dmp play or fail to think about it? (or both/neither?)

    Stick
    I solved it without thinking in DMP terms -- by looking to my general experience of being battered by leaving unnecessary blots.
    The virtue of the acepoint play is that it can win gammons if the opponent dances a lot.
    So we can see that, if gammons don't count, the acepoint play is even worse than it is for money.
    So I think it's clear to everyone (including me and Tim) that the nine point play works better at DMP than it does for money.
    But that doesn't make it correct (although it is correct). A person might believe that making the acepoint is such a stellar play
    in general that even though it's less motivated at DMP, it's still right at DMP.
    In fact, I think that's what Tim thought since he thought of making the acepoint as being safer.

    In summary, the part I knew was that the ninepoint play is stronger at DMP than normal scores.
    But that's different to saying I knew the ninepoint play was correct at DMP.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)