There's a song that Stick probably knows that goes something like this:

People say they wouldn't change a thing.
Even if they could.
But I would.
I'd done a lot of things different.

However, my play below was marked as a mistake by XG
but, since I don't understand how it can be wrong, I find
it hard to muster up the level of regret required by the song.
I could borrow from a different song and say:
"Looking back I could have played it differently".
But that wouldn't feel honest.

3/off is mandatory but why must I play 1/off?
The parity means that 1/off doesn't help much in the race --
I would have thought 3/2* is much better for the race.
And the number of shots is the same.

So why is my play of 3/2* a worse idea than not adding cheese
to tuna mayo?

Thank You.

Paul

XGID=-EaB--a------------ecbba--:1:-1:1:61:0:1:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 11 O: 103 X-O: 0-1
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61

1. XG Roller+ 3/Off 1/Off eq:+1.461
Player: 92.03% (G:64.54% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 7.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. XG Roller+ 3/2* 3/Off eq:+1.438 (-0.023)
Player: 89.80% (G:66.77% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 10.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/22/2022 4:47 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

3/off is mandatory but why must I play 1/off?
The parity means that 1/off doesn't help much in the race --

1/off definitely helps in the race *if you're hit*.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/22/2022 4:47 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=-EaB--a------------ecbba--:1:-1:1:61:0:1:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 11 O: 103 X-O: 0-1
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61

1. XG Roller+ 3/Off 1/Off eq:+1.461
Player: 92.03% (G:64.54% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 7.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. XG Roller+ 3/2* 3/Off eq:+1.438 (-0.023)
Player: 89.80% (G:66.77% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 10.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Below is a position I encountered recently with perhaps the same theme.
I was worried that if I played 3/off 2/off then O might get another
shot at me next turn, but unless she rolls 11, 31, or 41, she is going
to run off the backgammon rather than stick around.

XGID=-aCB---------------ddbbb--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 12 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 3/Off 2/Off eq:+1.459
Player: 93.70% (G:57.23% B:3.59%)
Opponent: 6.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.455..+1.464) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 3/1* 3/Off eq:+1.408 (-0.051)
Player: 92.31% (G:56.42% B:2.29%)
Opponent: 7.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.405..+1.412) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)