• Does Isight help here?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 18 00:12:32 2022
    XGID=--A-CDA------------aaadbc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 40 O: 34 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Jul 18 07:45:46 2022
    Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> writes:

    XGID=--A-CDA------------aaadbc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 40 O: 34 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    | Moves | Adjustments | |-----------+---------------------------|
    | 5/2 4/off | None |
    | 6/3 4/off | Vacated 6 |
    | 4/1 4/off | None |
    | 6/3 5/1 | Additional man, vacated 6 |
    | 5/2 5/1 | Additional man |
    | 5/1 4/1 | Additional man |
    | 6/2 4/1 | Additional man, vacated 6 |
    | 6/2 5/2 | Additional man, vacated 6 |

    So regarding Isight adjustments we have no way to decide between 5/2
    4/off and 4/1 4/off. The heuristic "maximize the from/to stack
    difference" advocates for the former (after the "mandatory" 4/off),
    the heuristic "fill the highest gap" advocates for the latter.

    My gut feeling prefers the former heuristic, but I do not have hard
    numbers to back this up. I was surprised by the equity difference, so
    maybe I should do a more systematic study.

    Best regards

    Axel

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jul 19 09:34:39 2022
    XGID=--A-CDA------------aaadbc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 40 O: 34 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    Some conflicting heuristics are at work here. If you have a checker
    on the 6pt and a gap on the 3pt, then normally, 6/3 is an efficient
    way to play a 3. But another heuristic is that tall stacks are bad,
    so you should unstack the 5pt. Evidently, unstacking the 5pt is
    the right play here.

    1. Rollout¹ 5/2 4/Off eq:+0.420
    Player: 62.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 37.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.418..+0.421) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3 4/Off eq:+0.387 (-0.033)
    Player: 62.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 37.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.385..+0.388) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 4/1 4/Off eq:+0.368 (-0.052)
    Player: 61.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 38.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.366..+0.369) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Gigantic

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jul 20 10:12:43 2022
    On 7/18/2022 12:12 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--A-CDA------------aaadbc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |                  |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O     O |
     |                  |   |          O       |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |                  |   |    X  X          |
     |                  |   |    X  X          |
     |                  |   | X  X  X     X    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 40  O: 34 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    Clearing the six point will result in a one pip "penalty" for the
    adjusted pipcount, so maybe. But O will be clearing one of the high
    points, so it probably doesn't matter. I'd play 6/3 4/off.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)