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  • 5pt or double hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 14 22:38:49 2022
    XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 16 22:39:50 2022
    XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    The double hit didn't look very appetizing to me, so I just made the
    5pt. However, XG favors the double hit. After 13/7* 6/3*, X does
    have 10 checkers in the zone, so a blitz could work, even though X
    has not made any new points on his side of the board yet. It still
    looks strange to me, though.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.409
    Player: 58.91% (G:18.42% B:0.94%)
    Opponent: 41.09% (G:9.46% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.393..+0.425) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.334 (-0.075)
    Player: 57.18% (G:16.80% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 42.82% (G:7.48% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.321..+0.348) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 17 05:28:53 2022
    17 Temmuz 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 05:39:57 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63
    The double hit didn't look very appetizing to me, so I just made the
    5pt. However, XG favors the double hit. After 13/7* 6/3*, X does
    have 10 checkers in the zone, so a blitz could work, even though X
    has not made any new points on his side of the board yet. It still
    looks strange to me, though.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.409
    Player: 58.91% (G:18.42% B:0.94%)
    Opponent: 41.09% (G:9.46% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.393..+0.425) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.334 (-0.075)
    Player: 57.18% (G:16.80% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 42.82% (G:7.48% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.321..+0.348) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Similarly, XG prefers a double hit for 3-1. The game has just started and I think the most important thing here is to seize the initiative.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to atila...@gmail.com on Sun Jul 17 23:37:52 2022
    On 7/17/2022 8:28 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
    Similarly, XG prefers a double hit for 3-1. The game has just started and I think the most important thing here is to seize the initiative.

    It still take judgment to assess that the blitz has good
    chances to succeed. If we move X's straggler back to the 24pt
    then XG thinks the decision is much closer.

    XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eB---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.388
    Player: 58.29% (G:18.82% B:0.96%)
    Opponent: 41.71% (G:9.84% B:0.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.377..+0.399) - [99.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.367 (-0.021)
    Player: 57.31% (G:19.12% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 42.69% (G:8.03% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.357..+0.377) - [0.3%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)