• I want another checker!

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jul 13 09:35:53 2022
    XGID=-CaCBBB----------------ba-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 42 O: 28 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Jul 14 10:05:47 2022
    On Wednesday, July 13, 2022 at 2:35:56 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-CaCBBB----------------ba-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 42 O: 28 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow
    When you count the pips with expected wastage, I think we're underdogs but it's hard (for me) to compute this exactly.
    So we will need to be somewhat aggressive. I like 6/2* 5/2. This works well if we're hit and we return the hit, and it works well
    if the opponent dances.
    So it fails 5/9 * 25/36 of the time which ain't that often.
    Tim's title makes me wary of it. Would he really create a title which hints at the solution like that? Some kind of double bluff peut-etre?
    Stimmt das so?
    I'll project a fake air of confidence while backing 6/2* 5/2
    If I'm wrong, I hope to see a variantization where my idea works.
    Hmmm, maybe the tricksterishness comes from my play being correct but not because of the return hit but because of the dancing parlay.
    The dancing variation might be some sort of cube.
    I like my play even better now.
    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 15 22:21:48 2022
    XGID=-CaCBBB----------------ba-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 42 O: 28 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    According to the rollout below, Paul correctly grasped the basic
    principles of this position, but chose the second-best play.
    After 6/2*, XG bears off a checker with 3/off instead of covering
    with 5/2. I blundered badly by ripping two checkers: 4/off 3/off.
    Aggressively bearing off without worrying about getting hit is a
    reasonable idea, but hitting is much better. Either O dances and
    we are happy to have caught up a bit in the race, or O enters and
    hits and we get a direct shot at a second checker.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 3/Off eq:-0.408
    Player: 25.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 74.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.413..-0.403) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 5/2 eq:-0.480 (-0.072)
    Player: 22.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 77.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.484..-0.476) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2* eq:-0.562 (-0.154)
    Player: 18.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 81.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.566..-0.558) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 5/1 5/2* eq:-0.603 (-0.195)
    Player: 17.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 82.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.607..-0.599) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 5/2* 4/Off eq:-0.630 (-0.222)
    Player: 15.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 84.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.634..-0.625) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 4/Off 3/Off eq:-0.677 (-0.269)
    Player: 14.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 85.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.681..-0.673) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ 6/2* 4/1 eq:-0.697 (-0.289)
    Player: 12.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 87.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.700..-0.693) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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