• Early blitz cube

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 19 23:13:54 2021
    XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Sep 20 02:42:18 2021
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 4:13:55 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Quite a confident D/T from me.
    With only a two point board, and not a huge number of pointing rolls, it must be a take,
    with double/hold being the real problem.
    XG consistently does seem to double these positions even though it's strongly subOhaganized.
    (I don't believe we have more than 25% market losers.)
    The obvious market losers where we point on the 3 point and our opponent dances might not seem
    probable but, apparently, this is enough for a cube.
    Double/ take.
    This does all sound rather pedestrian, so it leaves the question of why Tim made a quiz out of it.
    Perhaps Tim is surprised by how much of a blunder holding is?
    My guess is that that's his surprise.
    Of course, these positions can't be analysed (by me) with 100% confidence so anything could be the surprise.
    Maybe it's a beaver or a pass or maybe I've landed in an alternate universe where the checkers and cubes are themselves
    conscious and they make the decisions of what to do, leaving humans and bots as passive spectators who have nothing
    better to do than watch reality TV.

    Paul

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  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 20 10:39:05 2021
    On 9/19/2021 11:13 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2   O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     X        X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                | O |                  |  | O                |   |                  |
     | O           X    |   | X                |  | O        X  X    |   | X           X    |
     | O        X  X    |   | X        O  X  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 148  O: 184 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    I think any sequence where X makes a third homeboard point and O fails
    to anchor is a market loser and I think that adds up to more than nine.

    Other than O rolling 55 or 44, I'm not seeing any bad sequences for X.
    So I'll ship it.


    O will likely anchor and make a game of it so I"ll say take, but I"m not
    sure about that which makes me more confident in the cube.

    D/T

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Mon Sep 20 12:18:06 2021
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 9/19/2021 11:13 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I think any sequence where X makes a third homeboard point and O fails
    to anchor is a market loser and I think that adds up to more than nine.


    This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather than
    just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
    The threshold of nine applies if you're just looking at X's rolls without considering O's replies.
    My opinion is that O' Hagan's rule actually leads to ND/T here, but that the position is D/T because
    it's an O' Hagan counter-example.

    Paul

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  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Sep 20 17:42:28 2021
    On 9/20/2021 3:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:


    This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather than
    just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.

    Right. When I said "nine" I meant 9/36 over all the 36x36 sequences.
    Or 25%.



    And when I said "I think it adds up to nine" I didn't bother to count
    all 1296 sequences.

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Mon Sep 20 16:17:42 2021
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 10:42:32 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 9/20/2021 3:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:


    This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather than
    just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
    Right. When I said "nine" I meant 9/36 over all the 36x36 sequences.
    Or 25%.



    And when I said "I think it adds up to nine" I didn't bother to count
    all 1296 sequences.

    Me: "Ok, so how many sequences did you not bother to count?"
    ah...Clem "373".
    Me: "If you didn't count them, how do you know how many there are?"

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 22 22:59:02 2021
    XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I dropped this cube when I noted the following: X has ten checkers
    in the zone and is way ahead in the pip count. He has gotten one
    of his back checkers going and O has made no new points. So I was
    surprised to see that XG deems this a clear take. What I think I underestimated was how many ways there are for O to make a decent
    anchor and develop a playable holding game. When O has one on the
    bar and two in X's home board while X's board is still weak, she
    typically loses a lot of gammons but also has reasonable winning
    chances.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.38% (G:33.14% B:2.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.62% (G:7.08% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.64% (G:33.36% B:2.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.36% (G:7.08% B:0.37%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.784 (-0.124)
    Double/Take: +0.908
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.092)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.769..+0.798)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.886..+0.929)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aa-Ba-C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 183 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.87% (G:31.94% B:2.18%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.13% (G:6.35% B:0.25%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.90% (G:32.89% B:2.43%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.10% (G:6.57% B:0.27%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.819 (-0.152)
    Double/Take: +0.971
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.029)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.804..+0.834)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.946..+0.995)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Thu Sep 23 09:44:04 2021
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 10:42:32 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 9/20/2021 3:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:


    This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather than
    just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
    Right. When I said "nine" I meant 9/36 over all the 36x36 sequences.
    Or 25%.



    And when I said "I think it adds up to nine" I didn't bother to count
    all 1296 sequences.

    Anyway, the cards are now revealed. With it being less than 0.1 from a pass in a volatile position, you must be correct that the double is fully OHaganizated.

    Even though I got this problem correct, I would have thought that passing was a worse
    mistake than holding and this is wrong. It's closer to a pass than a hold (but pretty far from both).
    So I think I'm taking too readily in blitz positions. I'll put in an "if in doubt, pass" rule when I'm
    offered a blitzerish cube.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jan 1 10:45:59 2022
    XGID=aBAB--B-B-a-cCaa-c-e--A-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 3 23:36:40 2022
    XGID=aBAB--B-B-a-cCaa-c-e--A-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I was O and I took here, noting the following features: X has only
    9 checkers in the zone, and has 3 checkers back; O has only one
    checker on the bar and her remaining straggler has partially
    escaped. All these features point to significant winning chances
    for O. However, O has made no new points and has three blots lying
    around the board, so a large fraction of X's wins will be gammons.

    According to the rollout, however, it's a big pass. I think this
    one is a tough one to judge, though, because changing the position
    of one of X's back checkers by one pip yields a swing of about .2
    (see variant below).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.86% (G:43.16% B:4.55%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.14% (G:9.14% B:0.53%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.22% (G:43.65% B:4.71%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.78% (G:9.13% B:0.60%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.762 (-0.238)
    Double/Take: +1.102 (+0.102)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.747..+0.776)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.082..+1.122)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aBAB--B-B-a-cCaa-c-e---AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 63.00% (G:39.94% B:4.13%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.00% (G:9.58% B:0.62%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.29% (G:40.60% B:4.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.71% (G:9.74% B:0.65%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.667 (-0.250)
    Double/Take: +0.917
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.083)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.653..+0.681)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.896..+0.938)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 17 09:18:46 2022
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Feb 18 07:29:25 2022
    On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action



    D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
    The opponent might anchor or hit back.

    I am much more confident in the double than the take.
    D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.

    I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
    We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.

    Paul

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Feb 18 11:50:38 2022
    On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
    The opponent might anchor or hit back.

    I am much more confident in the double than the take.
    D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.

    I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
    We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.

    Paul

    The blot on the opponent's ace point (checker out of play) is a massive thorn in the side for the player being cubed.

    Stick

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Feb 18 12:55:16 2022
    On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 7:50:40 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
    The opponent might anchor or hit back.

    I am much more confident in the double than the take.
    D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.

    I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
    We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.

    Paul
    The blot on the opponent's ace point (checker out of play) is a massive thorn in the side for the player being cubed.

    Stick

    Yes, I figured that which is why I thought a pass was certainly likely.
    I couldn't decide between pass or marginal take.
    If it's a big pass, I should drink two strong black coffees as a punishment.
    It would be a big punishment because coffee needs milk and sugar in my opinion.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 19 19:45:31 2022
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Stick's comment exactly coincides with why I posted this position.
    OTB, I made my usual inventory: 9 checkers in the zone, two-point board
    with a blot, back checkers partially escaped, O has a blot on X's
    4pt but no other blots in the outfield, O has made her 3pt. I concluded
    that this one should be close, and I took.

    What I didn't pay much attention to OTB was O's blot on her 1pt. I
    decided to post this problem to help me remember to include that in
    my standard inventory. See the variant below.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 72.71% (G:32.55% B:1.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.29% (G:6.07% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:33.14% B:1.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:6.46% B:0.32%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.927 (-0.073)
    Double/Take: +1.257 (+0.257)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.916..+0.937)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.239..+1.274)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-dA-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:28.21% B:0.74%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.14% (G:29.77% B:0.82%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.86% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.776 (-0.199)
    Double/Take: +0.975
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.025)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.765..+0.787)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.958..+0.992)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Feb 20 03:25:34 2022
    On Sunday, February 20, 2022 at 12:45:35 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Stick's comment exactly coincides with why I posted this position.
    OTB, I made my usual inventory: 9 checkers in the zone, two-point board
    with a blot, back checkers partially escaped, O has a blot on X's
    4pt but no other blots in the outfield, O has made her 3pt. I concluded
    that this one should be close, and I took.

    What I didn't pay much attention to OTB was O's blot on her 1pt. I
    decided to post this problem to help me remember to include that in
    my standard inventory. See the variant below.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 72.71% (G:32.55% B:1.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.29% (G:6.07% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:33.14% B:1.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:6.46% B:0.32%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.927 (-0.073)
    Double/Take: +1.257 (+0.257)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.916..+0.937)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.239..+1.274)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-dA-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:28.21% B:0.74%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.14% (G:29.77% B:0.82%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.86% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.776 (-0.199)
    Double/Take: +0.975
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.025)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.765..+0.787)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.958..+0.992)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    So variantizing to eliminate O's acepoint blot generally
    puts us in marginal pass/take territory (depending of course
    on exactly how we variantize)?

    Stimmt dass?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Feb 20 12:05:12 2022
    On 2/20/2022 6:25 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    So variantizing to eliminate O's acepoint blot generally
    puts us in marginal pass/take territory (depending of course
    on exactly how we variantize)?

    Stimmt dass?

    Well, I kind of think of it more as a "point count" system.
    Actually I don't have a formal system of assigning points, but
    if I did, I would assign something like +1 or +2 or -1 or -2 to
    various features of a position and add them all up to help make
    a cube decision. O's ace-point blot is almost as valuable to X as
    covering X's own 3pt blot.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 17 09:37:18 2023
    XGID=aa--aBEAA---dC-A-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 157 O: 176 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 21 09:38:38 2023
    XGID=aa--aBEAA---dC-A-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 157 O: 176 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    X has 9 checkers in the zone with the 5pt made, and has a big lead
    in the pip count. It's true that X has only two home-board points
    made and O has good chances of anchoring, but I thought that the
    take/pass decision was borderline. But XG says it's a very clear
    take. It makes a significant difference how X's 9 checkers in the
    zone are distributed. In the variant below, X has priming potential
    as well as blitzing potential, and XG judges it to be much closer
    to a pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.54% (G:30.78% B:2.07%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.46% (G:8.43% B:0.55%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.46% (G:31.22% B:2.22%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.54% (G:8.52% B:0.59%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.748 (-0.079)
    Double/Take: +0.827
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.173)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.734..+0.762)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.803..+0.851)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aa--aBDAB---dC-A-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 176 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.52% (G:29.44% B:2.08%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.48% (G:7.13% B:0.37%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.24% (G:30.76% B:2.35%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.76% (G:7.32% B:0.38%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.833 (-0.141)
    Double/Take: +0.974
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.026)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.817..+0.849)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.950..+0.998)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Dec 22 10:04:50 2023
    On 12/21/2023 12:41 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 2:38:43 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    [...]
    But XG says it's a very clear take.
    [...]
    If clear means that the equity loss from the wrong decision is large,
    then yes, we have clarity. However, if "clear" means "obvious to
    any serious player", then a large number of 0.83 takes are unclear.

    What I said was that "XG says it's a very clear take." I try
    to avoid assertions that some play is "correct" or "clear"
    simpliciter; if you read my posts carefully, you'll see that
    I almost always use some locution such as, "the top play in
    the rollout" or "XG says that..."

    So you thought the decision was borderline. But did you see it as a borderline pass
    or a borderline take? And if the cube was offered to you, did you take it?

    I passed. X was leading 6-away/7-away which can sometimes tip
    gammonish cubes from D/T to D/P, but not here.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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