XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10Quite a confident D/T from me.
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O | | X O | | O | | | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | | | O | | |
| O X | | X | | O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
On 9/19/2021 11:13 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=aaBa--C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 184 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
I think any sequence where X makes a third homeboard point and O fails
to anchor is a market loser and I think that adds up to more than nine.
On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather than
just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
On 9/20/2021 3:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather thanRight. When I said "nine" I meant 9/36 over all the 36x36 sequences.
just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
Or 25%.
And when I said "I think it adds up to nine" I didn't bother to count
all 1296 sequences.
On 9/20/2021 3:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, September 20, 2021 at 3:39:10 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
This is apples-and-oranges counting. If you're looking at sequences, rather thanRight. When I said "nine" I meant 9/36 over all the 36x36 sequences.
just X's roll, you need to ask whether 25% of them (324) are market-losing.
Or 25%.
And when I said "I think it adds up to nine" I didn't bother to count
all 1296 sequences.
XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
The opponent might anchor or hit back.
I am much more confident in the double than the take.
D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.
I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.
Paul
On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
The opponent might anchor or hit back.
I am much more confident in the double than the take.
D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.
I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.
PaulThe blot on the opponent's ace point (checker out of play) is a massive thorn in the side for the player being cubed.
Stick
XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Stick's comment exactly coincides with why I posted this position.
OTB, I made my usual inventory: 9 checkers in the zone, two-point board
with a blot, back checkers partially escaped, O has a blot on X's
4pt but no other blots in the outfield, O has made her 3pt. I concluded
that this one should be close, and I took.
What I didn't pay much attention to OTB was O's blot on her 1pt. I
decided to post this problem to help me remember to include that in
my standard inventory. See the variant below.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.71% (G:32.55% B:1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.29% (G:6.07% B:0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:33.14% B:1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:6.46% B:0.32%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.927 (-0.073)
Double/Take: +1.257 (+0.257)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.916..+0.937)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.239..+1.274)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-dA-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:28.21% B:0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.14% (G:29.77% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.86% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.776 (-0.199)
Double/Take: +0.975
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.025)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.765..+0.787)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.958..+0.992)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
So variantizing to eliminate O's acepoint blot generally
puts us in marginal pass/take territory (depending of course
on exactly how we variantize)?
Stimmt dass?
On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 2:38:43 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:[...]
[...]But XG says it's a very clear take.
If clear means that the equity loss from the wrong decision is large,
then yes, we have clarity. However, if "clear" means "obvious to
any serious player", then a large number of 0.83 takes are unclear.
So you thought the decision was borderline. But did you see it as a borderline pass
or a borderline take? And if the cube was offered to you, did you take it?
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