XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, June 24, 2022 at 4:22:40 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

The info that the position is level could be an aid to the solver,
as it means that plays leaving us with a clear disadvantage can
be rejected.
However, I can't see a way to use that info here. I would have thought
that we had an advantage. I value our prime and our 18 point anchor
more than the opponent's racing lead, and I note the opponent's stack
on the 6 point.
23/21 8/3 seems like the natural play.
I might think that it's too obvious to be correct but Tim gave
a position where 7/1 was correct and also completely obvious.
I mean, who would just voluntarily break anchor in a back game for no reason whatsoever?

Here's hoping that this is another one with the theme -- "Tim States The Obvious."
But I don't feel at all confident here. 23/21 8/3 anyway.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

This is certainly not a backgame. It's probably best described as a
kind of mutual holding game. Still, breaking the 18pt anchor with
23/21 18/13 might seem to be volunteering unnecessary shots. However,
the shots aren't serious since O has no board, and 18/13 creates better outfield control and flexibility than 8/3.

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 18/13 eq:+0.020
Player: 50.73% (G:7.64% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 49.27% (G:9.79% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.004..+0.036) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3 eq:-0.058 (-0.078)
Player: 48.58% (G:7.85% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.42% (G:10.16% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.072..-0.043) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:31:15 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52
This is certainly not a backgame. It's probably best described as a
kind of mutual holding game. Still, breaking the 18pt anchor with
23/21 18/13 might seem to be volunteering unnecessary shots. However,
the shots aren't serious since O has no board, and 18/13 creates better outfield control and flexibility than 8/3.

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 18/13 eq:+0.020
Player: 50.73% (G:7.64% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 49.27% (G:9.79% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.004..+0.036) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3 eq:-0.058 (-0.078)
Player: 48.58% (G:7.85% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.42% (G:10.16% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.072..-0.043) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I'd say it's an approximately level position even if you do blunder. But chacun a son gout
It's interesting, anyway.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:16:40 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:31:15 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52
This is certainly not a backgame. It's probably best described as a
kind of mutual holding game. Still, breaking the 18pt anchor with
23/21 18/13 might seem to be volunteering unnecessary shots. However,
the shots aren't serious since O has no board, and 18/13 creates better outfield control and flexibility than 8/3.

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 18/13 eq:+0.020
Player: 50.73% (G:7.64% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 49.27% (G:9.79% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.004..+0.036) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3 eq:-0.058 (-0.078)
Player: 48.58% (G:7.85% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.42% (G:10.16% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.072..-0.043) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I'd say it's an approximately level position even if you do blunder. But chacun a son gout
It's interesting, anyway.

Paul

If you blunder you're basically spotting your opponent a tenth of a point, not what I'd consider an approx. level position. Would you like to spot your opponent an opening [65]?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQPGjSUQdg

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 11:31:15 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-----cC-DBB-----bdBf-A-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X X |
| O O X | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52
This is certainly not a backgame. It's probably best described as a
kind of mutual holding game. Still, breaking the 18pt anchor with
23/21 18/13 might seem to be volunteering unnecessary shots. However,
the shots aren't serious since O has no board, and 18/13 creates better outfield control and flexibility than 8/3.

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 18/13 eq:+0.020
Player: 50.73% (G:7.64% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 49.27% (G:9.79% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.004..+0.036) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3 eq:-0.058 (-0.078)
Player: 48.58% (G:7.85% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.42% (G:10.16% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.072..-0.043) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I'm so confused as why you brought the word backgame into it. You could have similarly stated 'I don't see mate in 3 here' and it would have been close in relevancy. Also, the coverage you keep by leaving your checker on the 23pt when down 15 pips and
not on roll is part of the explanation here.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/29/2022 4:48 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

I'm so confused as why you brought the word backgame into it.

Because Paul mentioned the word.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 5:19:52 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 6/29/2022 4:48 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

I'm so confused as why you brought the word backgame into it.

Because Paul mentioned the word.

---
Tim Chow

It seems that you totally misunderstood me.
The argument I was attempting to make is this:
1) I saw a play (actually a bad play) as being obvious.
2) Might an obvious play be nevertheless correct?
3) Have any obvious plays been correct in Tim's quizzes before?
4) Yes.
5) When?
6) In a previous backgame problem when 7/1 was both correct and obvious.
7) Why was 7/1 obvious in this previous backgame problem?
8) Because otherwise you voluntarily break anchor in a backgame
__in this previous problem__ for no reason whatsoever.

I didn't say (or think) that the position in this thread is a backgame.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/30/2022 3:23 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I didn't say (or think) that the position in this thread is a backgame.

I suspected that that was what you were saying, but I wasn't sure.

In any case, the answer to Stick's (implicit) question stands: I
mentioned the word because you mentioned it first.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)