XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d7/3 7/5. Hitting the blot is much too dangerous.
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
Sneak preview of next problem:
Step up?
6bb73e15fc21db78cd5cc033d15ab3b7cc7c2c8f1d404d6cfdc69854
---
Tim Chow
XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d...
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
O already has two checkers back, diminishing the need to send a third checker back. O's board is indeed too strong to venture the hit, but
see the variant below.
1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.299
Player: 58.09% (G:9.83% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 41.91% (G:6.03% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.288..+0.309) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/2 eq:+0.247 (-0.052)
Player: 56.92% (G:9.35% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 43.08% (G:5.89% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.237..+0.257) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.218 (-0.081)
Player: 56.29% (G:10.84% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 43.71% (G:15.25% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.206..+0.230) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
Hitting is the DMP play, but does it lose too many gammons? XG thinks
so, although 18/16*/15 fares a bit better in the rollout than it does
upon preliminary evaluation. It is not hard to find variants which
swing the play (one is shown below).
Of course this is not an exception to Stick's DMP rule since there are
no exceptions to that rule.
1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.178
Player: 35.52% (G:2.44% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 64.48% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.183..-0.173) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.246 (-0.068)
Player: 39.71% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.29% (G:28.17% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.254..-0.238) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.252 (-0.074)
Player: 32.84% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.16% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.257..-0.247) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 18/16* 8/7 eq:-0.337 (-0.158)
Player: 37.39% (G:8.16% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 62.61% (G:30.75% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbbbba--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.160
Player: 41.55% (G:11.27% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 58.45% (G:27.14% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.169..-0.151) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.031)
Player: 35.12% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.197..-0.186) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
For you maybe it is because you've never really tried to understand it and use it as should be done.
On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 5:25:29 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:is because you've never really tried to understand it and use it as should be done.
XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
Hitting is the DMP play, but does it lose too many gammons? XG thinks
so, although 18/16*/15 fares a bit better in the rollout than it does
upon preliminary evaluation. It is not hard to find variants which
swing the play (one is shown below).
Of course this is not an exception to Stick's DMP rule since there are
no exceptions to that rule.
1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.178
Player: 35.52% (G:2.44% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 64.48% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.183..-0.173) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.246 (-0.068)
Player: 39.71% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.29% (G:28.17% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.254..-0.238) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.252 (-0.074)
Player: 32.84% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.16% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.257..-0.247) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 18/16* 8/7 eq:-0.337 (-0.158)
Player: 37.39% (G:8.16% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 62.61% (G:30.75% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbbbba--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.160
Player: 41.55% (G:11.27% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 58.45% (G:27.14% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.169..-0.151) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.031)
Player: 35.12% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.197..-0.186) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---It could be an exception if the rule is totally new to you. It shouldn't be an exception if you've studied it, put it into play, and actually use it on a consistent basis...then it is fairly obvious. So you're right, for me it's not. For you maybe it
Tim Chow
Stick
I think I have made a good-faith attempt to understand it. I personally don't find this rule helpful.
On 3/30/2022 6:12 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I think I have made a good-faith attempt to understand it. I personally don't find this rule helpful.Below is something that looks somewhat similar to Stick's rule that
you might find helpful. At some point in the past, I even suggested
to Stick that this might be what he's actually trying to articulate
with his DMP rule, but he didn't agree. So I have it on good authority
that what follows is *not* Stick's DMP rule. Nevertheless, you might
notice some resemblance.
The idea is this. Start by doing your best to master DMP. Of course
you won't succeed perfectly, but the idea is that it should be no
harder than, and probably easier than, mastering money play, since you
don't have to think about gammons or the cube.
When you're faced with a tricky decision for money, first ask yourself, what's the DMP play? You may not always be able to answer this question confidently, but if you have studied DMP a lot then in many cases you
will have a pretty good idea of what the DMP play should be. If you
feel confident about the DMP play but are inclined to make a different
play, ask yourself why you want to deviate from the DMP play. In most
cases, presumably your justification is that the DMP play loses too many gammons or throws away too many gammon wins. Try to articulate these arguments to yourself explicitly, and remember them afterwards when you
check your play against the bot. Various outcomes are possible; e.g.,
1. You might have been completely wrong about what the DMP play was.
This situation should provide you with a valuable general lesson about backgammon.
2. You might have been right about the DMP play, but you misjudged the significance of gammon wins or losses. If you're like most people, when
you start this exercise, you'll discover that you have been deviating
from DMP too often, and you need to dial down your fear/love of gammon losses/wins. Or you might be one of those people who doesn't think
about gammons enough---for example, a common mistake I see is players
waiting too long to run off the gammon since they keep hoping they'll
hit a shot and turn the game around.
Over time, you should notice improvement, as decisions that seemed
difficult to you in the past will become obvious. The idea isn't to
lay down some fixed law and argue about whether this or that position
is an "exception" (since one person's "exception" may be obvious to
another person). Rather, the idea is to develop a certain approach to breaking down a position in a systematic way, so that you can identify clearly where your weaknesses are and address them.
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