• Make the genius play?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 13 22:48:21 2022
    XGID=-BBBBAB---b--B---dcd-Bb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O |
    | X O O | | O X O |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 15 22:10:42 2022
    XGID=-BBBBAB---b--B---dcd-Bb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O |
    | X O O | | O X O |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    By the "genius play" I mean 21/16 21/15, volunteering a double direct
    shot. That is indeed XG's play and it doesn't think it's close. X is
    ahead in the pip count and has a huge board advantage. If O hits then
    X will usually have quite a few rolls that hit back and lock up the
    game immediately. The pedestrian 13/8 13/7 strands X's back checkers,
    which will probably have a hard time escaping safely anyway, and by that
    time, X's board may have deteriorated.

    1. Rollout¹ 21/16 21/15 eq:+0.103
    Player: 53.00% (G:11.23% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 47.00% (G:6.60% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.092..+0.114) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.144 (-0.247)
    Player: 48.18% (G:5.60% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 51.82% (G:5.95% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.154..-0.135) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)