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  • Late blitz cube

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 8 08:32:23 2022
    XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Jun 8 15:18:16 2022
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 1:32:26 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    With the opponent's other blot under attack, any dance will massively lose our market.
    It's a monster double, and the only question is whether it's D/P or D/T. It isn't close to being TG.
    I think it's D/T because we may fail to cover both blots and then be hit ourselves. And that's not the only way
    we can lose.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jun 11 08:45:49 2022
    XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
    taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
    the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
    thinks it's a massive pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
    Redouble/Take: +0.915
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
    Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jun 11 11:44:41 2022
    On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 1:45:54 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
    taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
    the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
    thinks it's a massive pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
    Redouble/Take: +0.915
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
    Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    I called this one pretty accurately, I think, recognising that the
    real question was whether it's D/P or D/T, and also getting it right.

    I missed the point about duplication.
    The variant is better for the on-roll player than the original for other reasons,
    though. It is harder for the opponent to safety the other blot in the variant. And if the opponent dances, there are more fours than there are twos.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jun 11 14:01:47 2022
    On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 7:44:43 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 1:45:54 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
    taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
    the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
    thinks it's a massive pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
    Redouble/Take: +0.915
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
    Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
    I called this one pretty accurately, I think, recognising that the
    real question was whether it's D/P or D/T, and also getting it right.

    I missed the point about duplication.
    The variant is better for the on-roll player than the original for other reasons,
    though. It is harder for the opponent to safety the other blot in the variant.
    And if the opponent dances, there are more fours than there are twos.

    Paul

    I forgot another important reason that the variant is stronger for the on-roll player.
    In the original position, the opponent can create a 9 and 10 point mini prime on rolling an ace --
    quite a strong formation.

    So I'm not sure that duplication is such a key reason why the variant is better for the on-roll player
    than the original hamburger.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)