• A new concept in game complexity, from me: "branching factor inflation"

    From MK@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 8 01:58:42 2022
    Making slow progress on my digest of Axel's experiment
    because I want to give a good background on my various
    past arguments leading up to it and as it feels tedious, it
    is easy for my to get side tracked on some specific topics.

    For long years, I thought that mathematicians, gamblers,
    bot developers, etc. were making more of backgammon
    than what it really is. Today, I started thinking on this again
    while doing yard work for several hours and kept wondering
    if the complexity of backgammon is exaggerated because
    it's harder to create a top level backgammon bot than bots
    for chess and other games, simply due to its high branching
    factor??

    I started searching and reading about the topic... This Wiki
    gives a decent overall idea about it and even has a table to
    compare the complexity of tens of games.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_complexity

    We know that backgammon has a higher average branching
    factor (250?) than chess (35?) but chess is considered much
    more complex (harder).

    While trying to understand and compare the various factors
    of complexity of games, I felt like it was as difficult to compare
    economic factors of various countries, which can't give a good
    picture by themselves or even by a few at a time, but all need
    to be considered in retation to one another.

    All of a sudden the word "inflation" rang in my head! Can the
    high braching factor in backgammon lead to an inflation of
    positions and decisions, each with a lower value as a unit
    than the less numerous ones in chess (like currency exchange
    rates)...??

    I hope that my anology works and makes sense to at least
    some of you because at this moment I don't know how else
    to communicate my thoughts except by analogies. Maybe we
    will find a common language later.

    Who cares if there are so many more ways to get from Seattle
    to New York in backgammon-land than in chess-land..? It just
    makes it easier to recover from making the wrong turn in the
    backgammon-land.

    Who cares if the train ticket in backgammon-land cost much
    more than in chess-land..? You are paying with "inflated"
    backgammon dollars vs more valuable chess dollars.

    Why should it be harder for a human to play backgammon
    than chess because it is harder for bots to play backgammon
    than chess..!?

    Especially when the bots' early game equity esyimates are
    totally bogus and worthless for anything. See my last XG
    experiment with making the worst move at my first turn:

    https://www.montanaonline.net/backgammon/xg.php

    Because of the dice and luck, in backgammon no checker
    or cube decision is as consequential as in chess or other
    similar "skill games". In fact, depending on your opponents
    next roll, your huge blunder may end up being a gift from
    the sky. This is true only for that game but can be true for
    many other similar moves, at a considerable ratio even in
    four billion trials...

    Frankly, I'm just beyond amazed that more humans can't
    beat the bots decisively in meaningfully long sessions. Is
    anyone even honestly trying?? (Not trying to play exactly
    like bots, with a low PR, of course. You need to try playing
    like me..:))

    Okay, I think this should be enough to get the discussion
    rolling, if any of you find this topic interesting.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to wind on Sat Jun 11 23:56:31 2022
    On June 8, 2022 at 2:58:43 AM UTC-6, wind said:

    I started searching and reading about the topic... This Wiki
    gives a decent overall idea about it and even has a table to
    compare the complexity of tens of games. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_complexity

    Still thinking about this afterwards, I noticed that the only
    game of strategy there played with dice was backgammon

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backgammon

    and tried to think of other such games.

    I found out that a game we used the play as youngsters is
    commonly called "ludo",

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludo_(board_game)

    as one of many variants of an old dice game called "pachisi"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachisi

    which are apparently considered "complex race games", i.e.
    requiring some skill, with backgammon variants "multiplex
    race games", i.e. requiring more skill, and snakeandladders
    type games "simple race games", i.e. requiring no skill.

    Unfortunately, I couldn't fins anything about the branching
    factor, etc. in ludo/pachisi. I wonder if any of our resident
    mathematicians can figure it out based of number of pieces,
    squares/points, possible positions, etc...??

    I also remembered that some years ago even a chess variant
    played with dice was talked about here but I don't remember
    much about what the topics were, nor do I know about how it
    is played. Are there people here with knowledge and interest
    about it to contribute comments?

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jun 12 07:48:45 2022
    On 6/12/2022 2:56 AM, MK wrote:
    I also remembered that some years ago even a chess variant
    played with dice was talked about here but I don't remember
    much about what the topics were, nor do I know about how it
    is played. Are there people here with knowledge and interest
    about it to contribute comments?

    Here's one version of dice chess.

    http://math.lfc.edu/~yuen/dicechess/index.html

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jun 12 07:25:15 2022
    On Sunday, 12 June 2022 at 07:56:32 UTC+1, MK wrote:

    I also remembered that some years ago even a chess variant
    played with dice was talked about here but I don't remember
    much about what the topics were, nor do I know about how it
    is played. Are there people here with knowledge and interest
    about it to contribute comments?

    MK

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/273767481

    I played this a lot as a boy, oddly similar to backgammon.

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Jun 12 18:11:40 2022
    On June 12, 2022 at 5:48:50 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 6/12/2022 2:56 AM, MK wrote:

    Are there people here with knowledge and interest
    about it to contribute comments?

    Here's one version of dice chess. http://math.lfc.edu/~yuen/dicechess/index.html

    I was hoping for more personal experience type
    comments than links which I can find myself but
    maybe they will come later.

    Since that site is Java based, I'll have to try it on
    my other/test computer but I don't know what I
    can get out of it for my not being a chess player
    beyond knowing how to play and having played
    at most a hundred times or so in my life. That's
    why I'm seeking comments from decent/good
    players.

    Looking for other sites about it, I found the Wiki

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_variants

    and I was totally astounded that there are over 2000
    chess variants, excluding who know how many more
    "trivial" ones not worth mentioning. Wow! But I wonder
    who, if any people, play any of those variants? Are they
    perhaps invented just for the sake of it? Too see how
    much more complex/difficult variants one can create
    or in the opposite, to come up with ones easier to play?

    Apparently there are even about a dozen variants of
    "dice chess"... Again, who play these? Has anyone
    here ever played "dice chess"?

    I also searched if dice chess was played for gambling
    but coudn't find anything. Nor could I find anything on
    if it's played with a doubling cube, etc. Surely it wouldn't
    be too hard for some gamblemathicians to concoct a
    jackoffski equity formulas for chess positions.

    Is dice chess harder or easier than regular chess?

    If easier, then I would've expected that it would attract
    some gamblers who aren't smart enough to play plain
    chess but who want to brag about being smart enough
    to gamble playing "games of skill"...

    Is dice chess harder or easier than gamblegammon?

    If either, why gamblechess isn't as popular? Especially
    if harder, why don't we see any gamblegammon giants,
    who may be too good for gamblegammon, step up to a
    higher challenge of "skill gambling"...??

    With chess being so much popular than backgammon,
    gamblechess giants would have such a large pool of
    potential preys.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Nasti Chestikov on Sun Jun 12 18:34:28 2022
    On June 12, 2022 at 8:25:17 AM UTC-6, Nasti Chestikov wrote:

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/273767481
    I played this a lot as a boy, oddly similar to backgammon.

    Yes, I thought so too. There are backgammon variants
    with both players moving in the same direction, etc. It
    looks like such backgammon variants with more players
    racing fewer pieces to run them off the board to safety.

    Even though we knew it required some skill to win more,
    we never made much of it beyond a friendly/family game
    perhaps because the spirit wasn't to prove one-on-one
    superiority of skill, etc.

    I wonder though, if it's played by adults, with only two
    players or two teams of two players, and if taken more
    seriously, would we discover that it may actually require
    much more skill than we think it does...?

    I would be really curious to see some of the common
    game complexity formulas applied to it, in order to see
    where it ranks among race games requiring skill.

    I have a feeling that by discovering that such games
    require more skill than expected, we may discover that
    the skill assumed to be needed in backgammon may be
    less than what is exaggerated...??

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 13 08:50:49 2022
    On 6/12/2022 9:11 PM, MK wrote:
    Apparently there are even about a dozen variants of
    "dice chess"... Again, who play these? Has anyone
    here ever played "dice chess"?

    The version of dice chess that I linked to was created by
    David Yuen, who used to be a consultant for my company. He
    popularized it at my company and many people played it. The
    reason he invented it was to "level the playing field" somewhat.
    Two players whose skill level in chess is very different won't
    have much fun playing because the stronger player will always
    win easily. In dice chess the weaker player always has a chance.

    I played it myself a few times but did not seriously attempt to
    become skillful at it.

    Is dice chess harder or easier than regular chess?

    If easier, then I would've expected that it would attract
    some gamblers who aren't smart enough to play plain
    chess but who want to brag about being smart enough
    to gamble playing "games of skill"...

    I don't know exactly what "harder" or "easier" means. As for popularity---there are very few board games that become popular.
    Probably every year, hundreds if not thousands of new board games
    are invented, and many of them are probably (by some measure) just
    as good as popular board games, but they don't become popular,
    because there are so many other factors that drive popularity than
    just the intrinsic qualities of the game.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Jun 13 12:55:32 2022
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 1:50:53 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 6/12/2022 9:11 PM, MK wrote:
    Apparently there are even about a dozen variants of
    "dice chess"... Again, who play these? Has anyone
    here ever played "dice chess"?
    The version of dice chess that I linked to was created by
    David Yuen, who used to be a consultant for my company.

    Wow! You have a company!
    Why not plug it here?

    I might invest.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Jun 13 22:22:19 2022
    On 6/13/2022 3:55 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 1:50:53 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 6/12/2022 9:11 PM, MK wrote:
    Apparently there are even about a dozen variants of
    "dice chess"... Again, who play these? Has anyone
    here ever played "dice chess"?
    The version of dice chess that I linked to was created by
    David Yuen, who used to be a consultant for my company.

    Wow! You have a company!
    Why not plug it here?

    I think it was C. S. Lewis who said that the word "my" can have a
    range of connotations, ranging from "my boots" to "my phone number"
    to "my neighborhood" to "my daughter" to "my boss" to "my country"
    to "my God."

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Jun 14 10:15:28 2022
    On Monday, 13 June 2022 at 20:55:34 UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    Wow! You have a company!
    Why not plug it here?

    I might invest.

    Paul

    You want to invest in a guy who drives fast cars recklessly around the US in the hope of getting pulled by the cops and, I believe the phrase is, "getting content" for his YouTube channel?

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Nasti Chestikov on Wed Jun 15 22:04:24 2022
    On 6/14/2022 1:15 PM, Nasti Chestikov wrote:
    On Monday, 13 June 2022 at 20:55:34 UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    Wow! You have a company!
    Why not plug it here?

    I might invest.

    Paul

    You want to invest in a guy who drives fast cars recklessly around the US in the hope of getting pulled by the cops and, I believe the phrase is, "getting content" for his YouTube channel?

    Don't forget the big bucks I'm raking in because of Eraser.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Jun 17 08:54:29 2022
    On Thursday, 16 June 2022 at 03:04:32 UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

    Don't forget the big bucks I'm raking in because of Eraser.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Yeah, I'm big enough to apologise for that one, the guy concerned has disappeared up his own backside so obviously not you.

    How did Gumball 3000 go?

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jun 18 18:36:49 2022
    On June 13, 2022 at 6:50:53 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    The version of dice chess that I linked to was created
    by David Yuen ..... popularized it at my company and
    many people played it. The reason he invented it was
    to "level the playing field" somewhat. ..... In dice chess
    the weaker player always has a chance.

    Thanks fro this interesting info. If you feel like like it,
    can you tell more about what people tought about it,
    if it's still played, etc. especially "by what factor did it
    level the field"? (in terms of ELO, for example)

    But what I would really like to further discuss is "his
    reason" which seems to be the generally accepted
    about difficulty of games, i.e. injecting elements of
    luck makes them easier.

    However, I wonder if the opposite may also be true?
    Can adding luck to an easy skill game, (i.e. playing a
    simple, solved, skill game like tic-tac-toe with dice),
    make it actually harder, more complex/difficult? Any
    thoughts??

    Similarly, can eliminating luck/dice from games like
    backgammon also make them even harder, more
    complex/difficult?

    I don't know but I would guess that some people must
    have already invented diceless backgammon variants.
    Does anyone know about any existing ones?

    A variant closest to chess would be played by moving
    one piece per turn but I wonder if it would be playable.
    Any ideas??

    I probably wouldn't like such backgammon variants
    any more than chess that I don't like or play but I find
    these subjects interesting to discuss anyway.

    MK

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sun Jun 19 08:58:40 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    Can adding luck to an easy skill game, (i.e. playing a simple, solved,
    skill game like tic-tac-toe with dice), make it actually harder, more complex/difficult? Any thoughts??

    Not if the full game tree is known (tic-tac-toe) to all players,
    IMHO. For chess (game tree not fully known) I assume that more exotic
    parts of the game tree might get visited more often (e.g. weird
    openings). No thoughts about the complexity.

    Similarly, can eliminating luck/dice from games like backgammon also
    make them even harder, more complex/difficult?

    Depends on the choices that are left. Vice versa, just inventing a game
    with a huge will not necessarily make this interesting.

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sun Jun 19 09:55:32 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    I was totally astounded that there are over 2000 chess variants,
    excluding who know how many more "trivial" ones not worth
    mentioning. Wow! But I wonder who, if any people, play any of those
    variants? Are they perhaps invented just for the sake of it? Too see
    how much more complex/difficult variants one can create or in the
    opposite, to come up with ones easier to play?

    When a colleague told me about a tournament of

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_random_chess

    I read about it a bit. The bottom line of Fischer's idea for me is to
    (at least initially) compensate for the smaller (compared to backgammon) branching factor and quickly get into uncharted terrain. To have 960
    different starting positions is roughly similar to what backgammon has
    after the reply roll.

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sun Jun 19 10:12:08 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    I found out that a game we used the play as youngsters is
    commonly called "ludo",

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludo_(board_game)

    as one of many variants of an old dice game called "pachisi"

    Kids here in Germany probably all know

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensch_%C3%A4rgere_Dich_nicht

    , another variant. When I learned backgammon and the neural nets playing
    it, I was wondering whether adults tend to underestimate Ludo et al.'s complexity and whether an AI would show us how to play this REALLY well.
    I never explored this further, though.

    I couldn't fins anything about the branching factor, etc. in
    ludo/pachisi. I wonder if any of our resident mathematicians can
    figure it out based of number of pieces, squares/points, possible
    positions, etc...??

    The branching factor should be rather small (referring to the German
    variant): On average you have 2.5 pieces and one of 6 numbers on the
    die, which makes for 15 as a positional branching factor. 2.5 moves to consider. Very, very roughly, of course.

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sun Jun 19 10:20:13 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    Why should it be harder for a human to play backgammon than chess
    because it is harder for bots to play backgammon than chess..!?

    Because the mathematical difficulty of the game are independent of
    whether hard- and software or wetware is used.

    Because of the dice and luck, in backgammon no checker or cube
    decision is as consequential as in chess

    Unless you are doubled out. Sure, backgammon has swings even with
    competent players acting, different from chess.

    Axel

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jun 19 09:12:41 2022
    On 6/18/2022 9:36 PM, MK wrote:
    Thanks fro this interesting info. If you feel like like it,
    can you tell more about what people tought about it,
    if it's still played, etc. especially "by what factor did it
    level the field"? (in terms of ELO, for example)

    The purpose was to create a social, rather than a competitive,
    game. So of course we did not try to compute Elo ratings.

    But what I would really like to further discuss is "his
    reason" which seems to be the generally accepted
    about difficulty of games, i.e. injecting elements of
    luck makes them easier.

    I don't know what "easier" means.

    Here's one possible definition. Take the best player in the
    world; call that player A. Find someone, B, who can consistently
    achieve a score of 25% against A. Then find someone, C, who can
    consistently achieve a score of 25% against B. Continue until
    you can't find any more levels. The number of levels is the
    "difficulty" of the game.

    Is that what you mean?

    Here's a different possible definition. The difficulty of a game
    is measured in terms of how much effort needs to be expended to
    find the best move in a given position. This is not the same as
    the previous definition. It could be that the difference in quality
    between the best move and the worst move in every position is tiny,
    and that the game is dominated by luck. But if you really want to
    find the very best move, it will require enormous effort.

    Yet another definition is that the difficulty of a game is measured
    in terms of how much effort needs to be expended to find *some*
    reasonable move. We can invent a "difficult" game in this sense
    just by making the rules extremely complicated, so that almost
    nobody can understand them, and only a few world experts even have
    the ability to find a move that obeys the rules. I don't think that
    this is what you have in mind, but even if we don't go to this
    extreme, it's important to recognize that you can make it "difficult"
    to play a game just by making the rules inscrutable.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Sun Jun 19 09:19:10 2022
    On 6/19/2022 3:55 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
    When a colleague told me about a tournament of

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_random_chess

    I read about it a bit. The bottom line of Fischer's idea for me is to
    (at least initially) compensate for the smaller (compared to backgammon) branching factor and quickly get into uncharted terrain. To have 960 different starting positions is roughly similar to what backgammon has
    after the reply roll.

    Chess960 tournaments are still occasionally held at high levels.
    I think there are two ideas behind it. The first is to combat the
    intense memorization of "opening books" that dominates top-level
    chess nowadays. The second is to generate interesting positions
    that would never occur in ordinary chess.

    It's hard for a new game to catch on, so I think that's the main reason Chess960 hasn't caught on more. A secondary reason is that Chess960 is
    still basically chess, so the best Chess960 players are pretty much the
    best chess players. If it were different enough that the top Chess960
    players were different from the top chess players, then maybe that would
    help increase its popularity among spectators.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Bradley K. Sherman@21:1/5 to tchow12000@yahoo.com on Sun Jun 19 13:18:54 2022
    Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> wrote:
    On 6/18/2022 9:36 PM, MK wrote:
    ...
    But what I would really like to further discuss is "his
    reason" which seems to be the generally accepted
    about difficulty of games, i.e. injecting elements of
    luck makes them easier.

    I don't know what "easier" means.
    ...

    Related:
    | ...
    | In any competition including academic tests, athletic
    | events, and company management where there is an element of
    | luck that causes performances to be an imperfect measure of
    | ability, there is an important difference between
    | competitions among people with high ability and
    | competitions among people of lesser ability. If four work
    | friends play a round of golf and one player is much better
    | than the others, the winner is determined mostly by
    | ability. If four of the top golfers in the world play a
    | round of golf, the winner is determined mostly by luck.
    | This is the paradox of luck and skill: the more skilled the
    | competitors are, the more the outcome is determined by
    | luck.
    | ...
    <https://mindmatters.ai/2019/08/the-paradox-of-luck-and-skill/>
    (Written by Econ Prof, Gary Smith)

    --bks

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Jun 21 10:41:59 2022
    On Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 2:19:15 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 6/19/2022 3:55 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
    When a colleague told me about a tournament of

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_random_chess

    I read about it a bit. The bottom line of Fischer's idea for me is to
    (at least initially) compensate for the smaller (compared to backgammon) branching factor and quickly get into uncharted terrain. To have 960 different starting positions is roughly similar to what backgammon has after the reply roll.
    Chess960 tournaments are still occasionally held at high levels.
    I think there are two ideas behind it. The first is to combat the
    intense memorization of "opening books" that dominates top-level
    chess nowadays. The second is to generate interesting positions
    that would never occur in ordinary chess.

    It's hard for a new game to catch on, so I think that's the main reason Chess960 hasn't caught on more. A secondary reason is that Chess960 is
    still basically chess, so the best Chess960 players are pretty much the
    best chess players. If it were different enough that the top Chess960
    players were different from the top chess players, then maybe that would
    help increase its popularity among spectators.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    In pro darts, they tried a new version where where there was a segment nearer the centre of
    the board than the triple region but further from the centre than the 25-scoring outer ring.
    In this region, the scores were multiplied by 4, rather than 3.
    Not only did this version fail to catch on, but, at the highest levels, players often ignored the possiblity
    of hitting quadruples and simply ignored those sectors.
    Would you argue that this darts-with-quadruples hasn't caught on more, mainly because it's hard
    for a new game to catch on, and that a secondary reason is that the game is basically just darts so the
    best darts-with-quadruples players are pretty much the best darts players?
    If you would not make (or agree to) this argument, I might be tempted to criticise you for your glaring
    failure to maintain a consistent standard when comparing different games.

    Also there was a rule trialled in Challenger pro tennis tournaments where serves that hit the net were
    treated normally, and not given a let.
    What is your theory on why this version failed to catch on?

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Tue Jun 21 17:32:50 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 1:55:35 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_random_chess

    I read about it a bit. The bottom line of Fischer's idea for
    me is to (at least initially) compensate for the smaller
    (compared to backgammon) branching factor and quickly
    get into uncharted terrain. To have 960 different starting
    positions is roughly similar to what backgammon has
    after the reply roll.

    I don't think you can call various initial setups as branching.

    Black and white pieces are always mirrored. Games haven't
    started yet and no branchings have occured yet. In fact, all
    of those 960 starting positions can be considered individual
    chess variants with substancially similar branching factors.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Tue Jun 21 17:19:40 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 12:58:44 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    Can adding luck to an easy skill game, (i.e. playing a simple,
    solved, skill game like tic-tac-toe with dice), make it actually
    harder, more complex/difficult? Any thoughts??

    Not if the full game tree is known (tic-tac-toe) to all players,
    IMHO. For chess (game tree not fully known) I assume that
    more exotic parts of the game tree might get visited more
    often (e.g. weird openings). No thoughts about the complexity.

    The "weird openings" would result mostly from "forced moves"
    which may be really bad or losing moves beyond just weird and
    thus may require more skill to survive those? I'm just bouncing
    ideas around...

    can eliminating luck/dice from games like backgammon
    also make them even harder, more complex/difficult?

    Depends on the choices that are left. Vice versa, just inventing
    a game with a huge will not necessarily make this interesting.

    I didn't understand what you mean here. Can you elaborate?

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Tue Jun 21 17:52:53 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 2:12:11 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludo_(board_game)

    Kids here in Germany probably all know

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensch_%C3%A4rgere_Dich_nicht

    In Turkish, it was called "Kızma birader" ("Don't get angry, brother").

    When I learned backgammon and the neural nets playing it,
    I was wondering whether adults tend to underestimate Ludo
    et al.'s complexity and whether an AI would show us how to
    play this REALLY well. I never explored this further, though.

    Me too. So maybe it's time we explore a little. There are online
    Ludo servers and surely there must be Ludo apps/bots. I will
    try to play some when I find time.

    The branching factor should be rather small (referring to the
    German variant): On average you have 2.5 pieces and one of
    6 numbers on the die, which makes for 15 as a positional
    branching factor. 2.5 moves to consider. Very, very roughly,
    of course.

    Can you expand on how you came up with these? There are 16
    men and 40 squares to land on. As kids, we mostly tried to run
    one man at a time, happily hopping from square to square. But
    what if the optimum strategy is to run all your men at the same
    time. Almost half of the 40 squares would be occupied, with a
    lot of men constantly sent back home.

    What if only two players or two teams of two players control 8
    men each, on either opposite or adjacent "home" positions?

    I can't offer any branching numbers, etc. but I have the feeling
    that it can get pretty darn complicated...

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Tue Jun 21 18:15:10 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 2:20:15 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    Why should it be harder for a human to play
    backgammon than chess because it is harder
    for bots to play backgammon than chess..!?

    Because the mathematical difficulty of the
    game are independent of whether hard- and
    software or wetware is used.

    I would expect a better answer/comment than
    this from you, if you were to make an effort to
    understand the question before indogtrainedly
    preaching from the book... :(

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Jun 21 18:57:53 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 7:12:46 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    I don't know what "easier" means.

    How about "requiring less skill"?

    Here's one possible definition. Take the best player in
    the world; call that player A. Find someone, B, who can
    consistently achieve a score of 25% against A. Then find
    someone, C, who can consistently achieve a score of 25%
    against B. Continue until you can't find any more levels.
    The number of levels is the "difficulty" of the game.
    Is that what you mean?

    I wasn't trying to "mean" anything. I was just inquiring.

    This makes better sense to me than the approach used
    in the Wiki page I previously gave a link to. Being based
    on actual results, it seems more realistic than the ones
    based on theoretical/mathematical extrapolations.

    Did you come up with this? If so, is 25% a random pick?
    Or is this actually used to rank players in some games?

    Does anyone know how the player levels in backgammon
    bots are determined? Using a similar method? Elsewise?

    I suppose the number of levels would be proportionate
    to the amounts of skill needed in various games. Also,
    they would be more precise and predictable in higher
    skill games.

    It seems like chess has 16 levels while gamblegammon
    has 4 tournament brackets: small, medium, large, giant. :)

    I think this says enough about how much skill is really
    needed in backgammon/gamblegammon...

    Here's a different possible definition. The difficulty of a
    game is measured in terms of how much effort needs
    to be expended to find the best move in a given position.

    I stopped reading this definition here because unless the
    game is solved, there's no way to find all the "best" moves.

    I like the previous method better as the most practical for
    popular games with enough players to deserve rankings.

    There is no point in trying to measure the complexity of
    some obscure games/variants with "inscrutable" rules
    that are only played rarely and/or by handfuls of people.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Jun 21 19:39:18 2022
    On June 19, 2022 at 7:19:15 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    A secondary reason is that Chess960 is still
    basically chess, so the best Chess960 players
    are pretty much the best chess players.

    This made me look at game complexity (i.e. skill
    required vs luck) from yet a different perspective:
    "how long a game lasts on the average".

    Wiki says: "10 to 60 minutes for casual games,
    10 minutes (fast chess) to 6 hours or more for
    tournament games" both for regular chess and
    chess960.

    For backgammon it says "5 to 60 minutes".

    For Ludo, Mensch ärgere Dich nicht, etc. it says
    "about 30 minutes".

    I don't know how they came up with these but
    they seem reasonable to me.

    In chess, the low 10 minutes is for the variant
    "fast chess" or if a huge skill difference between
    the players leads to a quick defeat.

    In backgammon, the low 5 minutes is also and
    only for a variant "gamblegammon" played with
    cube. No cubeless backgammon game will be
    over in 5 minutes even with big skill differences
    between the players or if played fast by equally
    skilled players.

    Just the act of rolling the dice uses up time in
    Ludo also which is probably why it doesn't end
    in 5 to 10 minutes even when played between
    unskilled children.

    Clearly gamblegammon with the cube is more
    of a game of luck than even Ludo...

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 22 08:40:42 2022
    On 6/21/2022 9:57 PM, MK wrote:
    This makes better sense to me than the approach used
    in the Wiki page I previously gave a link to. Being based
    on actual results, it seems more realistic than the ones
    based on theoretical/mathematical extrapolations.

    Did you come up with this? If so, is 25% a random pick?
    Or is this actually used to rank players in some games?

    I did not come up with this. I don't know who first came up with
    it, but it dates back at least to Bill Robertie in 1992.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20190112044437/https://thegammonpress.com/comparing-games-skill-chance/

    The concept is also discussed in the book "Characteristics of Games,"
    by Elias, Garfield, and Gutschera, where they call this measure the
    "length of the skill chain." The number 25% is a random pick; it's
    what Robertie used, but Elias et al. use 40%. Actual ranking of players
    is always done by something like the Elo system, in every game that I
    am aware of.

    Elias et al. make some simple but important observations. The first
    is that the length of the skill chain depends not just on the game
    itself, but the community of players. Tic-tac-toe has a longer skill
    chain among kids than among adults. For games like chess, the skill
    chain may change over time as people learn more about the game and
    the size of the playing population changes.

    Another point is that the win percentage of Player A over Player B
    depends on the duration of a playing session. The more skillful
    player is going to have a better chance of winning a best-of-5 match
    than a single game. So if Game 1 has a longer skill chain than Game 2,
    we may be able to change that by replacing Game 2 by best-of-5 matches
    of Game 2. This again shows that the length of the skill chain is not
    an intrinsic property of the game, but depends on "external" factors
    such as how long people are willing to spend on a playing session.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 22 08:44:48 2022
    On 6/21/2022 10:39 PM, MK wrote:
    This made me look at game complexity (i.e. skill
    required vs luck) from yet a different perspective:
    "how long a game lasts on the average".

    In the book, "Characteristics of Games" by Elias, Garfield, and
    Gutschera, the duration of a game is the very first characteristic
    of a game that they consider. This is not an accidental choice,
    since often the very first question a new player has when offered
    the opportunity to play a game is, "How long will the game last?"

    I think you'll find a lot of interesting stuff in this book.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Bradley K. Sherman on Sat Aug 13 15:06:36 2022
    bks@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman) writes:

    Related:
    | ...
    | In any competition including academic tests, athletic
    | events, and company management where there is an element of
    | luck that causes performances to be an imperfect measure of
    | ability, there is an important difference between
    | competitions among people with high ability and
    | competitions among people of lesser ability. If four work
    | friends play a round of golf and one player is much better
    | than the others, the winner is determined mostly by
    | ability. If four of the top golfers in the world play a
    | round of golf, the winner is determined mostly by luck.
    | This is the paradox of luck and skill: the more skilled the
    | competitors are, the more the outcome is determined by
    | luck.
    | ...
    <https://mindmatters.ai/2019/08/the-paradox-of-luck-and-skill/>
    (Written by Econ Prof, Gary Smith)

    Add-on: If two clueless backgammon players compete, the outcome is also determined mostly by luck.

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sat Aug 13 15:21:11 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    [Ludo, Pachisi, ...]

    I can't offer any branching numbers, etc. but I have the feeling
    that it can get pretty darn complicated...

    I imagine that the "terrain", as perceived by an optimizer, is very
    flat, meaning that the equity difference between the (few) possible
    moves will be tiny, similar to long races such as this:

    The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, axel 0
    Move number 1: axel to play 11

    GNU Backgammon Position ID: sG+3AACwb7cAAA
    Match ID : cIkEAAAAAAAA
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
    | O O | | O O O O | 0 points
    | O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X | Rolled 11
    | X X | | X X X X | 0 points
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: axel
    Pip counts: O 106, X 106

    There are more than 40 moves within 0.01 equity of the best move.

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Mon Aug 15 23:38:32 2022
    On August 13, 2022 at 7:21:13 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    [Ludo, Pachisi, ...]

    I can't offer any branching numbers, etc. but I have
    the feeling that it can get pretty darn complicated...

    I imagine that the "terrain", as perceived by an
    optimizer, is very flat, meaning that the equity
    difference between the (few) possible moves
    will be tiny, similar to long races such as this:

    I will argue the exact opposite but let's talk about
    your backgammon example first.

    GNU Backgammon Position ID: sG+3AACwb7cAAA
    Match ID : cIkEAAAAAAAA

    There are more than 40 moves within 0.01 equity
    of the best move.

    Thank you, thank you, for this example perfectly
    supporting my argument about "branching factor
    inflation" in backgammon.

    I categorically question the accuracy of all equity
    estimates but 0.01 here meaning tiny/negligeable
    difference suits me just fine.

    There you have not 40 branches but 40 twigs and
    your opponent has also 40 twigs... I wonder how
    many possible positions there will be until the end
    of this game. A few hundreds? A few thousands?
    Gods forbid, even more?

    Now, on to Ludo. As I mentioned before, there are
    40 squares on the board with the possibility of all
    16 men being on the board.

    1) Considering that all 4 players are opponents of
    one another, this is would be a very crowded board.

    2) Each player may adopt a strategy of having 1, 2,
    3 or 4 of his men on the board. Thus, every other
    player needs to adjust his own strategy according
    to the combination of startegies adopted by the
    other 3 players.

    3) You can't stack your pieces to make points to
    save your blots or block your opponents. Every
    piece on the board is a blot, ripe for picking by
    any of the 3 opponents.

    4) After making your move, you have to wait 3 turns
    until it's your turn again. Unlike once in backgammon,
    3 times the chance of getting it.

    5) Even if you have to choose between moving one
    of two pieces to either follow one opponent of to
    jump ahead of another opponent will be much more
    than a tiny equity difference.

    6) I'm sure we could come up with many more
    arguments for the complexity of Ludo...

    I totally understand your obsession with cube skill
    theories, equities accurate to several decimals, etc.
    in gamblegammon and your need to exaggerate the
    skill level needed in order to make yourself feel better
    about not being just an addicted gambler settling for
    an inferior skill game than chess, etc. because that's
    all you can handle...

    I bet it would really upset you if Ludo proved to need
    more skill than gamblegammon but why should you
    even worry about it? It's also a game of luck played
    by rolling a die. You can concoct a "doubling cube
    theory for Ludo" using tinyly accurate equities and
    then just switch to gambling with gambleludo... ;)

    MK

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sun Aug 28 12:25:03 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    On August 13, 2022 at 7:21:13 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    I bet it would really upset you if Ludo proved to need more skill than gamblegammon

    Just because equity differences between moves are tiny (think "greedy"
    bear-off versus optimal bear-off) does not mean that the game is a
    difficult and skillful game.

    Imagine a toin coss experiment where prior to the toss the player has to skillfully select (by visual examination) one of 11 imperfect coins
    (yielding heads with 0.495, 0.496, ..., 0.504, 0.505 probability, respectively). Then the coin is tossed, head wins.

    Skillful? Maybe.
    Dominated by luck? For sure.
    Boring? You can bet.

    Most stages of Ludo to me fit this picture.

    Axel

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Sun Aug 28 21:08:42 2022
    On August 28, 2022 at 4:25:09 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    I bet it would really upset you if Ludo proved to
    need more skill than gamblegammon

    Just because equity differences between moves are tiny
    (think "greedy" bear-off versus optimal bear-off) does not
    mean that the game is a difficult and skillful game.

    I don't see what are you trying to say with this comment.

    In the previous posts, regarding Ludo you said: "the equity
    difference between the (few) possible moves will be tiny";
    and I responded: "I will argue the exact opposite".

    Later in my reply, talking about equity difference in Ludo, in
    paragraph #5, I said: "Even if you have to choose between
    moving one of two pieces to either follow one opponent
    of to jump ahead of another opponent will be much more
    than a tiny equity difference."

    Imagine a toin coss experiment where.....

    No need to imagine coin tossess. You had already given
    an actual gamblegammon example using a position with
    more than 40 moves within 0.01 equity of the best move.

    Now let's apply your questions/answers to that example:

    Skillful? Maybe.
    Dominated by luck? For sure.
    Boring? You can bet.

    I totally agree that these are true about gamblegammon
    way too often. And I would also say more often than Ludo.

    I was trying to argue that unlike in gamblegammon where
    positions with more than 40 moves within 0.01 equity of
    the best move are common, (making it a "Maybe skillful",
    "Dominated by luck" and "Boring" game), in Ludo no such
    "inflation of inconsequential decisions" would occur and
    any equity differences between available moves wouldn't
    be as "tiny" (i.e. 0.01) as gamblegammon.

    Most stages of Ludo to me fit this picture.

    To each his opinion...

    MK

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Tue Aug 30 08:22:16 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    On August 28, 2022 at 4:25:09 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    Skillful? Maybe.
    Dominated by luck? For sure.
    Boring? You can bet.

    I totally agree that these are true about gamblegammon
    way too often. And I would also say more often than Ludo.

    Then please try your luck in rec.games.board, just around the corner.

    Axel

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Tue Aug 30 17:00:11 2022
    On August 30, 2022 at 12:22:18 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    On August 28, 2022 at 4:25:09 AM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    Skillful? Maybe.
    Dominated by luck? For sure.
    Boring? You can bet.

    I totally agree that these are true about gamblegammon
    way too often. And I would also say more often than Ludo.

    Then please try your luck in rec.games.board,
    just around the corner.

    You made many empty, unnecessary, unproductive
    comments today. Trying to discuss things with you
    is turning into a waste of time... :(

    MK

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  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Sep 19 18:23:40 2022
    On Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:40:48 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 6/21/2022 9:57 PM, MK wrote:
    This makes better sense to me than the approach used
    in the Wiki page I previously gave a link to. Being based
    on actual results, it seems more realistic than the ones
    based on theoretical/mathematical extrapolations.

    Did you come up with this? If so, is 25% a random pick?
    Or is this actually used to rank players in some games?
    I did not come up with this. I don't know who first came up with
    it, but it dates back at least to Bill Robertie in 1992.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20190112044437/https://thegammonpress.com/comparing-games-skill-chance/

    I learned from Ken Regan that the idea of measuring the "depth" of
    a game in this way seems to be due to Laszlo Mero, who described
    the concept in his 1990 book, "Ways of Thinking."

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Sep 20 08:24:46 2022
    On September 19, 2022 at 7:23:42 PM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On June 22, 2022 at 8:40:48 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

    it, but it dates back at least to Bill Robertie in 1992.

    I learned from Ken Regan that the idea of measuring the "depth" of
    a game in this way seems to be due to Laszlo Mero, who described
    the concept in his 1990 book, "Ways of Thinking."

    Good to see the credit go to the right person.

    Do you have anything new to say on the topic, by chance?
    I'm disappointed that nothing more came out of it.

    I looked for Ludo software but couldn't find anything other
    than Android apps and no online servers, nothing to take
    seriously anyway. It seems nobody plays Ludo competitively.
    I guess it will stay at this unless we stumble onto something
    more interesting about it in the future... :(

    MK

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