Here, my thinking was much too stereotyped and careless, and I paid the
price for it by throwing away approx 0.2 equity in what was pretty clearly
a terrible play. I failed to hit.
My thinking was: I don't want my opponent dancing on the bar. I want
XG crunching at the front.
But XG's 6s are a real threat that need to be considered. And hitting
makes XG a (slight) underdog to dance. And if I put XG on the bar, there
are plenty of rolls where XG crunches upon entering.
Just because XG is at the bar, doesn't mean that XG won't burn the
crunchable toast at the front.

Paul

XGID=--aCCBBB-A---------bbbecB-:1:-1:1:32:1:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O O X | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 74 X-O: 1-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

1. XG Roller+ 9/6 4/2* eq:+0.103
Player: 61.64% (G:9.93% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 38.36% (G:10.89% B:0.70%)

2. XG Roller+ 9/6 3/1 eq:-0.108 (-0.210)
Player: 52.29% (G:6.84% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 47.71% (G:8.14% B:0.36%)

3. 2-ply 9/4 eq:-0.183 (-0.286)
Player: 49.72% (G:5.80% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 50.28% (G:8.21% B:0.41%)

4. 2-ply 9/7 4/1 eq:-0.226 (-0.328)
Player: 48.46% (G:5.92% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 51.54% (G:9.58% B:0.50%)

5. 2-ply 4/1 3/1 eq:-0.255 (-0.357)
Player: 47.30% (G:5.84% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 52.70% (G:10.11% B:0.53%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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