• Hit? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 3 09:30:09 2022
    XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jun 4 04:07:08 2022
    3 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 16:30:14 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow
    It is necessary to keep all three game plans alive against an opponent who is committed to an attacking game plan by making one or more of his deep points. I believe that's the main idea. And 1-1 gives that opportunity.
    The next question is easier: Which one is better? making the 4 points or making the 5 point? My play is 6/5(2), 11/9

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jun 5 08:13:19 2022
    XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 11

    It's a little hard to blitz when X's back checkers are somewhat
    hemmed in and the rest of X's structure is more suited to priming
    than to blitzing. See the two variants below for comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.562
    Player: 63.08% (G:22.66% B:1.14%)
    Opponent: 36.92% (G:12.01% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.547..+0.576) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 3/2*(2) eq:+0.441 (-0.121)
    Player: 59.62% (G:23.32% B:0.98%)
    Opponent: 40.38% (G:12.90% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.427..+0.456) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) eq:+0.440 (-0.122)
    Player: 60.51% (G:22.26% B:1.12%)
    Opponent: 39.49% (G:13.16% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.422..+0.457) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbdA--bA-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 3/2*(2) eq:+0.263
    Player: 63.61% (G:23.39% B:0.93%)
    Opponent: 36.39% (G:10.44% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.250..+0.275) - [93.3%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.251 (-0.012)
    Player: 64.24% (G:22.53% B:1.44%)
    Opponent: 35.76% (G:13.15% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.242..+0.260) - [6.7%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-a-aB-DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 4/3*(2) eq:+0.676
    Player: 65.13% (G:24.32% B:1.12%)
    Opponent: 34.87% (G:10.51% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.662..+0.689) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.609 (-0.067)
    Player: 65.42% (G:21.46% B:1.17%)
    Opponent: 34.58% (G:10.82% B:0.70%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.596..+0.622) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 16 07:55:49 2022
    XGID=-a----E-D--AeDA-ab-da-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Sep 16 21:20:42 2022
    On 9/16/2022 7:55 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----E-D--AeDA-ab-da-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  X     O  O    |   | O  O     O       |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O  X        X    |   | X              O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 139  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    X has three big stacks and both players have blots strewn all over the
    board. Unstacking seems to be the main theme here, and the tempo hit on
    the ace should allow X to consolidate if not hit, or hit one of O's
    homeboard blots if he is hit.

    6/1* seems thematic, and 13/7 seems better than 11/5 since it unstacks
    and doesn't leave a double shot from the bar.

    13/7 6/18

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 19 08:10:31 2022
    XGID=-a----E-D--AeDA-ab-da-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    You might think that O's blotty board would give X license to leave
    a direct shot rather than play the ugly-looking 14/8 13/8, but XG
    begs to differ. X's main asset here is that he has escaped both back
    checkers. If he gets hit then he has nothing. (The blot on the 11pt
    can be hit only with 64, and O can't hit and cover.)

    1. Rollout¹ 14/8 13/8 eq:+0.416
    Player: 61.53% (G:7.29% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 38.47% (G:6.93% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.406..+0.426) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/8 11/6 eq:+0.342 (-0.074)
    Player: 59.56% (G:6.91% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 40.44% (G:8.00% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.332..+0.351) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/1* eq:+0.338 (-0.078)
    Player: 59.32% (G:9.51% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 40.68% (G:8.42% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.327..+0.350) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/7 eq:+0.312 (-0.104)
    Player: 58.41% (G:12.31% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 41.59% (G:9.73% B:0.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.300..+0.324) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Sep 19 14:05:28 2022
    On Monday, September 19, 2022 at 8:10:33 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----E-D--AeDA-ab-da-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65
    You might think that O's blotty board would give X license to leave
    a direct shot rather than play the ugly-looking 14/8 13/8, but XG
    begs to differ. X's main asset here is that he has escaped both back checkers. If he gets hit then he has nothing. (The blot on the 11pt
    can be hit only with 64, and O can't hit and cover.)

    1. Rollout¹ 14/8 13/8 eq:+0.416
    Player: 61.53% (G:7.29% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 38.47% (G:6.93% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.406..+0.426) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/8 11/6 eq:+0.342 (-0.074)
    Player: 59.56% (G:6.91% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 40.44% (G:8.00% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.332..+0.351) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/1* eq:+0.338 (-0.078)
    Player: 59.32% (G:9.51% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 40.68% (G:8.42% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.327..+0.350) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/7 eq:+0.312 (-0.104)
    Player: 58.41% (G:12.31% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 41.59% (G:9.73% B:0.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.300..+0.324) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Both to the 8pt doesn't look ugly to me at all. We would reroll of course, but get ahead in the race, escape your checkers, and race home quietly is a hell of a game plan we can implement here fairly well. The only reason it's not gangbusters equity
    wise is because our race lead isn't so large.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)