Here I made the correct play, but it felt like a total guess.
I don't know exactly how to reason my way to avoid the
blunder but I suppose one of those ace-point type books
written by Bob Wachtel would help. Tim probably has all
of them ("all" includes the possibility that only one exists.)
I suppose my problem (the reason I had to guess rather than
work it out) is that I didn't know how to evaluate the race if
I leave the 5 point open and XG steps into it. In that case,
is my race so bad that I prefer the contact?
This shows an additional unrecognised form of luck at backgammon.
Besides the luck of the good rolls (here, my roll was actually bad),
there's also the luck of making the good plays by chance.
And there's also the luck of which opponents you get matched with.
And there's a luck element on whether threads initiated on rgb get
good responses.
On 6/3/2022 7:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:...
Here I made the correct play, but it felt like a total guess.Wachtel's book would not help you in this position.
I don't know exactly how to reason my way to avoid the
blunder but I suppose one of those ace-point type books
written by Bob Wachtel would help. Tim probably has all
of them ("all" includes the possibility that only one exists.)
I suppose my problem (the reason I had to guess rather thanIt's very rare that you prefer to be hit, and this position is no
work it out) is that I didn't know how to evaluate the race if
I leave the 5 point open and XG steps into it. In that case,
is my race so bad that I prefer the contact?
exception. What's going on here is that bearing a checker is so
valuable that you're willing to leave a shot even though you'd
rather not get hit. Because of parity considerations, bearing a
checker here will often save you a whole roll.
On 6/3/2022 7:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Here I made the correct play, but it felt like a total guess.Wachtel's book would not help you in this position.
I don't know exactly how to reason my way to avoid the
blunder but I suppose one of those ace-point type books
written by Bob Wachtel would help. Tim probably has all
of them ("all" includes the possibility that only one exists.)
I suppose my problem (the reason I had to guess rather thanIt's very rare that you prefer to be hit, and this position is no
work it out) is that I didn't know how to evaluate the race if
I leave the 5 point open and XG steps into it. In that case,
is my race so bad that I prefer the contact?
exception. What's going on here is that bearing a checker is so
valuable that you're willing to leave a shot even though you'd
rather not get hit. Because of parity considerations, bearing a
checker here will often save you a whole roll.
This shows an additional unrecognised form of luck at backgammon.I have mentioned before the excellent book "Characteristics of Games"
Besides the luck of the good rolls (here, my roll was actually bad), there's also the luck of making the good plays by chance.
And there's also the luck of which opponents you get matched with.
And there's a luck element on whether threads initiated on rgb get
good responses.
by Elias, Garfield, and Gutschera. I had a long debate with Elias
and Garfield about precisely the above point. They were inclined to
use the term "luck" for all forms of randomness. That would match
your usage of the word "luck." I, on the other hand, prefer to
distinguish between "systemic" randomness (from the dice) and
"agential" randomness (what you're calling "unrecognised" luck).
For me, *skill is a random variable*. So there's randomness involved
in skill as well. If forced to use the word "luck" without an
adjective, I would prefer to use "luck" to mean "systemic randomness"
and not use it to refer to agential randomness. Elias and Garfield
prefer to use skill to refer to what I would call the expected value
of the skill random variable, and lump together systemic and agential randomness into one big thing that they interchangeably call "luck"
or "randomness." It's true that from their perspective as game
designers/game critics, the distinction between the two kinds of
randomness is not so important, especially since it's not so easy to disentangle them in practice for many games. But backgammon has a
very clean way of defining systemic randomness (which we call "luck")
so I'd rather preserve that, and use "agential randomness" for your "unrecognised luck."
Thanks for your thoughts. I didn't mean to compare being hit with not
being hit.
My intended comparison is the opponent's hitting 5's vs the opponent's non-hitting 5s.
In other words, which play works better in the variants where XG rolls a 5 on the next roll.
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