• How to blitz 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 31 07:08:36 2022
    XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 3 09:25:26 2022
    XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    The blitzing play is to hit. With a roll of 54, for example, X would
    certainly play 13/9 8/3*. But in the given position, 13/7 6/3* has
    some downsides. One cannot cover from the 6pt if it is stripped.
    More importantly, the alternative play of 16/10 13/10 has several
    plusses: it makes a useful point, unstacks the midpoint, cleans up
    a blot, and retains multiple game-plan options. There's a reasonably
    good chance that O will anchor and put an end to the blitz, so some
    degree of what Robertie might call non-commitment has value.

    Note that at gammon go, XG thinks that 16/10 13/10 and 13/9 8/3* are
    basically tied.

    I haven't bothered to roll out the variant, but it illustrates what
    happens if the alternative to hitting is less attractive.

    1. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/10 eq:+0.600
    Player: 63.38% (G:20.21% B:1.08%)
    Opponent: 36.62% (G:8.06% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.582..+0.617) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.470 (-0.130)
    Player: 59.26% (G:23.74% B:1.68%)
    Opponent: 40.74% (G:10.47% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.451..+0.488) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/21 16/10 eq:+0.457 (-0.142)
    Player: 59.85% (G:19.69% B:1.19%)
    Opponent: 40.15% (G:9.56% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.441..+0.474) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 16/10 6/3* eq:+0.446 (-0.154)
    Player: 58.91% (G:22.15% B:1.47%)
    Opponent: 41.09% (G:10.08% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.429..+0.462) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---------
    Gammon go
    ---------

    XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.643
    Player: 60.86% (G:21.28% B:3.82%)
    Opponent: 39.14% (G:10.57% B:1.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.635..+0.651) - [86.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/10 eq:+0.636 (-0.006)
    Player: 65.56% (G:16.27% B:2.31%)
    Opponent: 34.44% (G:7.11% B:0.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.629..+0.644) - [13.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:36:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 36

    1. XG Roller++ 24/15 eq:+0.522
    Player: 62.90% (G:16.19% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 37.10% (G:7.93% B:0.27%)

    2. XG Roller++ 15/9 6/3* eq:+0.508 (-0.015)
    Player: 59.96% (G:22.52% B:1.50%)
    Opponent: 40.04% (G:9.34% B:0.37%)

    3. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.495 (-0.028)
    Player: 59.52% (G:23.31% B:1.60%)
    Opponent: 40.48% (G:9.90% B:0.46%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)