• Another priming battle

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 19 09:58:37 2022
    XGID=-a-aBBBBBB--a---bcbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 21 11:21:11 2022
    XGID=-a-aBBBBBB--a---bcbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    Keep a solid five-prime, or hit? XG says hit. Part of the point is
    that X still has a pretty good prime after 8/3*, with (for example)
    O's checker on X's 1pt *not* at the edge of the prime. 8/3* does
    lose more gammons, but even at gammon save, XG slightly favors 8/3*.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.618
    Player: 35.44% (G:10.88% B:0.62%)
    Opponent: 64.56% (G:23.90% B:2.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.633..-0.602) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/21 7/3* eq:-0.759 (-0.141)
    Player: 33.78% (G:10.36% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 66.22% (G:26.56% B:2.95%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.781..-0.737) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/5 eq:-0.761 (-0.144)
    Player: 32.15% (G:9.09% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 67.85% (G:21.96% B:1.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.783..-0.739) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/21 9/5 eq:-0.777 (-0.159)
    Player: 33.07% (G:10.07% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 66.93% (G:25.76% B:2.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.800..-0.753) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 24/23 9/5 eq:-0.788 (-0.170)
    Player: 32.74% (G:9.07% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 67.26% (G:24.65% B:1.92%)
    Confidence: ±0.023 (-0.811..-0.765) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)