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  • I have no sponsor

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 14 12:39:07 2021
    I deserve a prize for two reasons:
    1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
    2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
    for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

    Paul

    XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 8 |
    | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Sep 14 20:23:52 2021
    peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    I deserve a prize for two reasons:
    1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
    2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
    for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

    Paul

    XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 8 |
    | X X | | X X X X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    Cube action is not my strength. Having said that I would say Too
    Good/Drop. O is screwed once X hits the loose checker.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Sep 14 21:49:31 2021
    On 9/14/2021 3:39 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I deserve a prize for two reasons:
    1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
    2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
    for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

    Paul

    XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 8 |
    | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Containment cubes where the defender has (1) a single checker on the
    bar against a five-point board with an open 5pt and (2) a five-point
    board of her own are usually takes when the pip count difference is
    this large. But O has an extra blot in the outfield, which jacks up
    her gammon losses. I think I'd pass this one.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Sep 15 01:08:00 2021
    On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 2:49:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/14/2021 3:39 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I deserve a prize for two reasons:
    1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
    2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
    for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

    Paul

    XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 8 |
    | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Containment cubes where the defender has (1) a single checker on the
    bar against a five-point board with an open 5pt and (2) a five-point
    board of her own are usually takes when the pip count difference is
    this large. But O has an extra blot in the outfield, which jacks up
    her gammon losses. I think I'd pass this one.

    Maybe it's lazy of me not to do any variantization here.
    However, it should be possible to variantize by removing the outfield blot while retaining the pip counts and
    other key features. But I think that such variantizations lead generally to ND/T and not D/T which
    impacts your reasoning (if I'm correct).

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Sep 15 14:22:43 2021
    On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 2:49:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/14/2021 3:39 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I deserve a prize for two reasons:
    1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
    2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
    for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

    Paul

    XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O X O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 8 |
    | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
    Cube: 8, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Containment cubes where the defender has (1) a single checker on the
    bar against a five-point board with an open 5pt and (2) a five-point
    board of her own are usually takes when the pip count difference is
    this large. But O has an extra blot in the outfield, which jacks up
    her gammon losses. I think I'd pass this one.

    Ultra-marginal.
    So what prize do I win?
    The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
    a contact position in a money game.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 69.85% (G:19.88% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.15% (G:6.84% B:0.28%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.03% (G:20.64% B:0.56%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.97% (G:8.80% B:0.48%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.529, Double=+1.120

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.748 (-0.250)
    Redouble/Take: +0.998
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.002)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.745..+0.752)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.989..+1.007)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 65.3%

    Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Sep 18 19:55:35 2021
    On 9/15/2021 5:22 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    So what prize do I win?
    The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
    a contact position in a money game.

    It took me a while, but I finally found Nack Ballard's contender
    for this prize. It's the position below.

    XGID=bB-B--C-B---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | X X O O | | O X |
    | O O | | O X |
    | O | | O X |
    | O | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X X X | | X O |
    | X X X | | X O |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Nack did a 164600-game rollout and XG reported the equity as
    +1.0000 with a 50.0% take decision confidence. You can view
    his rollout here (it might take a while for the webpage to load
    because bgonline.org is still plagued by server problems):

    http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=161608

    Nack did admit that he fiddled with the number of trials in order
    to get the perfect borderline result:

    http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=161721

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Sep 18 17:43:24 2021
    On Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 12:55:38 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/15/2021 5:22 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    So what prize do I win?
    The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
    a contact position in a money game.
    It took me a while, but I finally found Nack Ballard's contender
    for this prize. It's the position below.

    XGID=bB-B--C-B---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | X X O O | | O X |
    | O O | | O X |
    | O | | O X |
    | O | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X X X | | X O |
    | X X X | | X O |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Nack did a 164600-game rollout and XG reported the equity as
    +1.0000 with a 50.0% take decision confidence. You can view
    his rollout here (it might take a while for the webpage to load
    because bgonline.org is still plagued by server problems):

    http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=161608

    Nack did admit that he fiddled with the number of trials in order
    to get the perfect borderline result:

    How long was his prison sentence as a result of that confession, or had the statute of limitations expired?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)