XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbdcB-a--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbdcB-a--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

X is in big trouble if O rolls a 4 regardless, and slotting gives
X the biggest upside if O does not roll a 4. Nevertheless, I was
surprised at how big an error XG thought my play of 11/10 11/6 was.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0.527
Player: 65.18% (G:12.78% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 34.82% (G:7.23% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.519..+0.535) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0.257 (-0.270)
Player: 57.96% (G:10.80% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 42.04% (G:6.61% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.246..+0.268) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0.193 (-0.334)
Player: 56.39% (G:10.13% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:6.00% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.183..+0.203) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:20:02 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbdcB-a--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
X is in big trouble if O rolls a 4 regardless, and slotting gives
X the biggest upside if O does not roll a 4. Nevertheless, I was
surprised at how big an error XG thought my play of 11/10 11/6 was.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0.527
Player: 65.18% (G:12.78% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 34.82% (G:7.23% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.519..+0.535) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0.257 (-0.270)
Player: 57.96% (G:10.80% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 42.04% (G:6.61% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.246..+0.268) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0.193 (-0.334)
Player: 56.39% (G:10.13% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:6.00% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.183..+0.203) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

With your play when the opponent doesn't roll a four you make your five point and a six prime cleanly about 1/4th of the time. So out of the 25 games the opponent doesn't roll a four you are making your five point about 6 games.

By slotting in the games the opponent doesn't roll a four you make your five point and a six prime cleanly about 3/4th of the time. So out of the 25 games the opponent doesn't roll a four you are making your five point about 19 games. This play also
leaves you a good six to play which with the other play is otherwise awful, and doesn't duplicate your own fives. So it's no surprise the huge disparity between the plays.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/20/2022 2:56 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

By slotting in the games the opponent doesn't roll a four you make your five point and a six prime cleanly about 3/4th of the time. So out of the 25 games the opponent doesn't roll a four you are making your five point about 19 games. This play also

leaves you a good six to play which with the other play is otherwise awful, and doesn't duplicate your own fives. So it's no surprise the huge disparity between the plays.

I wouldn't have been surprised by a .2 disparity, but .3+ surprises me.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

21 Mayıs 2022 Cumartesi tarihinde saat 18:05:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

On 5/20/2022 2:56 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

By slotting in the games the opponent doesn't roll a four you make your five point and a six prime cleanly about 3/4th of the time. So out of the 25 games the opponent doesn't roll a four you are making your five point about 19 games. This play also

leaves you a good six to play which with the other play is otherwise awful, and doesn't duplicate your own fives. So it's no surprise the huge disparity between the plays.

I wouldn't have been surprised by a .2 disparity, but .3+ surprises me.

---
Tim Chow

The right play and theme is 11/5. And Stick Rice’s comment about this move is quite satisfying. But failure to grasp the main theme is not the only reason why the error is so great. I think there are 3 more important points.

The fist is O’s blot on the 23 point. The checker duplicates O’s fours. In variant 1, I moved that checker from 23 to 22. And I removed it in variant 2.

Variant 1

XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbdcBa---:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0,470
Player: 62,77% (G:12,67% B:0,31%)
Opponent: 37,23% (G:7,67% B:0,29%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,462..+0,478) - [100,0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0,271 (-0,199)
Player: 57,30% (G:11,07% B:0,32%)
Opponent: 42,70% (G:6,32% B:0,25%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,258..+0,283) - [0,0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0,216 (-0,254)
Player: 56,14% (G:10,82% B:0,30%)
Opponent: 43,86% (G:6,37% B:0,24%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,204..+0,227) - [0,0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Variant 2

XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbddB----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0,462
Player: 62,87% (G:13,19% B:0,32%)
Opponent: 37,13% (G:6,83% B:0,20%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,453..+0,470) - [100,0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0,308 (-0,154)
Player: 58,48% (G:11,40% B:0,31%)
Opponent: 41,52% (G:6,12% B:0,23%)
Confidence: ±0,013 (+0,295..+0,320) - [0,0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0,224 (-0,237)
Player: 56,40% (G:11,00% B:0,28%)
Opponent: 43,60% (G:6,02% B:0,22%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,212..+0,237) - [0,0%]

Second, John's timing is shaky. The third is the location of the cube. In the third variant, I made all the changes simultaneously. In other words, the cube is now at 2, no blots, and O has 2 checkers on the mid-point to play comfortably.

Variant 3

XGID=-aBBB-BBA--Bb--b-bbccB----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver

Pip count X: 116 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:-0,138
Player: 50,27% (G:15,21% B:0,35%)
Opponent: 49,73% (G:8,90% B:0,38%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (-0,148..-0,128) - [100,0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:-0,199 (-0,062)
Player: 48,59% (G:14,13% B:0,29%)
Opponent: 51,41% (G:8,30% B:0,37%)
Confidence: ±0,011 (-0,210..-0,189) - [0,0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:-0,237 (-0,100)
Player: 47,09% (G:13,04% B:0,20%)
Opponent: 52,91% (G:7,63% B:0,34%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (-0,247..-0,227) - [0,0%]

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

23 Mayıs 2022 Pazartesi tarihinde saat 15:36:36 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

On 5/21/2022 6:04 PM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

Second, John's timing is shaky.

Nice variants. But which player are you calling John?

---
Tim Chow

I don't know John :)) He is O

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/21/2022 6:04 PM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

Second, John's timing is shaky.

Nice variants. But which player are you calling John?

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/13/2023 9:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       O        O |   | O  O  O  O     X |  |                O |   | O  O  O  O       |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X             |
 |                X |   | X  X             | +---+
 | O              X |   | X  X        X    | | 2 |  | O           X  X |   | X  X     X  X  O | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 98  O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

X is stuck behind a five prime and is not at the edge, while O has lots
of timing before crunching. And if she leaps out it's basically game over.

Seems like X's only chance is to make the full prime and hope for a 1
and a 6 or for O to roll big doubles. These are not great odds, but
making the three point while slotting the four looks like the way to
make the best out of a bad situation.

Note that if O misses and X covers O is still the favorite.

8/3 6/4.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

This problem (and the next) could almost have gone into the "Slot
to contain?" series, except that it's a priming battle and not a
containment game, plus the slotting play doesn't lock up the game
when it works. Anyway, there are three possible approaches here:
(1) hitting, (2) slotting, and (3) playing safe.

X's biggest problem is obviously his straggler, which needs to
leap O's prime somehow. Hitting has some merit, because it gains
a tempo. The trouble is that O will probably enter fairly easily,
and then X will have scant resources after that. For example,
his aces are duplicated to step up and make the 4pt. He could
very well be forced to expose another blot, which could get sent
back for a gammon loss.

Priming is a more promising idea, because if X makes the prime
then he will likely be in decent shape for several turns thereafter.
The question is, can he essay the slotting play of 8/3 6/4? In
the variant position below, in which I have shifted a spare from
X's 5pt to his 6pt, the rollout says yes. But in the given
position, a big problem is that X does not have many ways to cover
the blot if missed, and his aces are duplicated to cover and step up.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq:-0.421
Player: 26.98% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 73.02% (G:9.55% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.428..-0.414) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 7/5 eq:-0.471 (-0.050)
Player: 24.74% (G:7.07% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 75.26% (G:9.65% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.477..-0.465) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2 5/3 eq:-0.473 (-0.052)
Player: 25.64% (G:7.48% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 74.36% (G:12.29% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.480..-0.465) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/3 eq:-0.487 (-0.066)
Player: 26.54% (G:8.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 73.46% (G:16.30% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.493..-0.480) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 6/1* 3/1 eq:-0.503 (-0.082)
Player: 24.30% (G:6.99% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 75.70% (G:11.45% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.509..-0.497) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/4 eq:-0.563 (-0.142)
Player: 23.91% (G:7.76% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 76.09% (G:18.20% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.570..-0.557) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aBA-CDCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/4 eq:-0.402
Player: 29.52% (G:10.28% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 70.48% (G:18.08% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.410..-0.394) - [98.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 7/5 eq:-0.414 (-0.012)
Player: 26.55% (G:8.04% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 73.45% (G:9.94% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.421..-0.408) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/3 eq:-0.421 (-0.019)
Player: 29.00% (G:9.67% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 71.00% (G:16.83% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.428..-0.414) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1* 3/1 eq:-0.426 (-0.024)
Player: 27.17% (G:8.26% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 72.83% (G:11.70% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.432..-0.420) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq:-0.468 (-0.065)
Player: 24.93% (G:7.57% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 75.07% (G:10.90% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.474..-0.462) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On October 15, 2023 at 7:23:37 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

Yo! "Tim The Math-Giver", your ex-boyfriend
seems to be jalous of your newly-found anal
dildo, helping you spam RGB in daily duets
of idiotic position analyses... You may want
to give him some attention for the old times'
sake but be careful to not end up as a "math
fish" trophy mounted on some wall again... ;)

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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MK <murat@compuplus.net> wrote:

...

FFS, Murat, why don't you log out and take a long walk?

--bks

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On October 16, 2023 at 4:44:33 AM UTC-6, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:

MK <mu...@compuplus.net> wrote:

FFS, Murat, why don't you log out and take a long walk?

I walk away from RGB on most days,
finding nothing worth reading and/or
responding to and I feel I should be
allowed to post a few times a month
when Tim, A.H. Clem and Stick have
been spamming RGB several times
each and every day.

If you weren't a shit-licking, mother-
loving member of the sick dog pack,
you would have advised them long
ago to log out and take a long walk...

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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