XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-ca--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

16 Mayıs 2022 Pazartesi tarihinde saat 17:11:58 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-ca--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-ca--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver

Pip count X: 130 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0,300
Player: 58,98% (G:4,77% B:0,15%)
Opponent: 41,02% (G:4,74% B:0,13%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+0,293..+0,307) - [100,0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/3 eq:+0,257 (-0,042)
Player: 57,87% (G:5,29% B:0,18%)
Opponent: 42,13% (G:5,95% B:0,17%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+0,250..+0,265) - [0,0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+0,242 (-0,058)
Player: 57,85% (G:4,89% B:0,18%)
Opponent: 42,15% (G:6,56% B:0,13%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+0,234..+0,249) - [0,0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2 eq:+0,224 (-0,076)
Player: 56,94% (G:5,23% B:0,21%)
Opponent: 43,06% (G:6,60% B:0,18%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+0,217..+0,231) - [0,0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0,221 (-0,079)
Player: 56,98% (G:5,23% B:0,18%)
Opponent: 43,02% (G:6,24% B:0,20%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,213..+0,229) - [0,0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The cost of getting hit in the early or even early-mid stages of the game isn't very high. I guess that's why most moves aren't blunders.
First of all, X's outfield points do not have spares. For this reason, it seems inevitable that X will leave a blot. So X has to pay now.
To understand this, I gave X a spare checker. Variant 1.

Of course the pip numbers have changed. But it still gives an idea, and not having spare checkers is no excuse. Despite everything, the first choice is still 13/10 13/9.


XGID=----BbD-BB--cB--Cd-ca--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver

Pip count X: 140 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0,128
Player: 53,39% (G:4,62% B:0,16%)
Opponent: 46,61% (G:5,78% B:0,15%)
Confidence: ±0,011 (+0,118..+0,139) - [100,0%]


2. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+0,103 (-0,025)
Player: 52,71% (G:4,12% B:0,15%)
Opponent: 47,29% (G:5,56% B:0,11%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (+0,093..+0,113) - [0,0%]


3. Rollout² 16/13 6/2 eq:+0,046 (-0,082)
Player: 51,34% (G:3,88% B:0,14%)
Opponent: 48,66% (G:6,31% B:0,18%)
Confidence: ±0,022 (+0,025..+0,068) - [0,0%]


4. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/3 eq:+0,044 (-0,085)
Player: 51,41% (G:5,02% B:0,21%)
Opponent: 48,59% (G:7,24% B:0,19%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,032..+0,055) - [0,0%]


5. Rollout² 13/6 eq:+0,043 (-0,085)
Player: 51,22% (G:4,80% B:0,16%)
Opponent: 48,78% (G:6,60% B:0,17%)
Confidence: ±0,022 (+0,021..+0,065) - [0,0%]


¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In the 2nd variant, I covered O's blot on the 5 point . Now his homeboard is stronger. And it's time to play safe.
In summary, your opponent's weak homeboard says pay now.

Variant 2

XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-bb--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2 eq:+0,184
Player: 55,74% (G:4,96% B:0,19%)
Opponent: 44,26% (G:6,98% B:0,15%)
Confidence: ±0,011 (+0,174..+0,195) - [99,7%]


2. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/1 eq:+0,162 (-0,022)
Player: 55,14% (G:4,52% B:0,14%)
Opponent: 44,86% (G:7,43% B:0,19%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,150..+0,174) - [0,3%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0,145 (-0,040)
Player: 54,48% (G:6,23% B:0,18%)
Opponent: 45,52% (G:7,07% B:0,24%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (+0,134..+0,155) - [0,0%]


4. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/3 eq:+0,095 (-0,089)
Player: 53,43% (G:5,45% B:0,17%)
Opponent: 46,57% (G:7,74% B:0,22%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (+0,085..+0,105) - [0,0%]


5. Rollout² 16/9 eq:+0,091 (-0,093)
Player: 53,44% (G:4,46% B:0,18%)
Opponent: 46,56% (G:8,59% B:0,15%)
Confidence: ±0,019 (+0,072..+0,110) - [0,0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-ca--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

atilamalcok has already rolled out the position and even anticipated my variant! I also like atilamalcok's other variant, which I did not think
to examine.

In Michy's eulogy for Falafel, he attributed to Falafel the term
"island" (see page 5):

http://www.world-backgammon-association.com/attachments/article/131/I-Mourn-for-Falafel.pdf

An "island" is a position in which every point in your outer board is
stripped. The position above is an example. Falafel emphasized that
islands are bad. So X is willing to take some risk (but of course not
an excessive amount of risk) to get rid of the island formation.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0.291
Player: 58.87% (G:4.70% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 41.13% (G:4.84% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.282..+0.301) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+0.250 (-0.042)
Player: 57.96% (G:4.79% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 42.04% (G:6.64% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.239..+0.260) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/3 eq:+0.244 (-0.048)
Player: 57.79% (G:5.08% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 42.21% (G:6.10% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.234..+0.254) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2 eq:+0.209 (-0.082)
Player: 56.89% (G:5.44% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 43.11% (G:6.87% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.200..+0.218) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----BbE-BB--cB--Bd-bb--b--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2 eq:+0.178
Player: 55.79% (G:4.98% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 44.21% (G:7.13% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.173..+0.183) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/1 eq:+0.166 (-0.012)
Player: 55.28% (G:4.62% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 44.72% (G:7.54% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.161..+0.171) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0.153 (-0.025)
Player: 54.70% (G:6.34% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 45.30% (G:7.17% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.148..+0.158) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

O is stripped, so I thought that if I waited this one out, I might
be able to concede just a single direct shot instead of a double
direct shot. But O has a blot in her board, which is evidently enough
to make XG pay now (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.205
Player: 62.30% (G:16.02% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 37.70% (G:4.84% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.197..+0.213) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.136 (-0.069)
Player: 58.40% (G:15.85% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 41.60% (G:6.02% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.129..+0.143) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB----a-bbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.195
Player: 60.78% (G:16.40% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 39.22% (G:5.04% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.187..+0.203) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.162 (-0.032)
Player: 61.57% (G:12.52% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 38.43% (G:4.45% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.154..+0.171) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    | +---+
 | X                |   |    O  O  O  O    | | 2 |
 |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |       X          |
 | O           X  O |   | X  O  X     X  X |
 | O           X  O |   | X  O  X     X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 88  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.

But I'll pay later since sometimes you don't need to pay at all, and her
board won't last much longer unless she runs off one of the anchors.

8/3 8/4.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/20/2022 10:09 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    | +---+
  | X                |   |    O  O  O  O    | | 2 |
  |                  |   |                  | +---+
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |             X    |   |                  |
  |             X    |   |       X          |
  | O           X  O |   | X  O  X     X  X |
  | O           X  O |   | X  O  X     X  X |
  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 88  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.

Paying now with 13/9 13/8 gives O 20 shots, not 11 shots.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, July 21, 2022 at 2:28:33 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 7/20/2022 10:09 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.

Paying now with 13/9 13/8 gives O 20 shots, not 11 shots.

Being hit is not so bad, if you reenter immediately. So the bot play gives about 25%
probability of a terrible sequence.
The blot on the board argues for the bot play for two reasons:
1) You may hit back.
2) The opponent is preparing to cover the blot, in which case delaying the attempt to
run home will be costly.

Having said all that, it's such a difficult call to make, when you don't have bot-like ability
to examine all possibilities 4 ply.
I'm sure I would have got this wrong.
I wonder how world-class players handle these situations.
Unfortunately, Stick never lets us know this, because he never gets any problems wrong.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---C-bC-E-B-bB---a-daabb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/10/2022 8:15 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---C-bC-E-B-bB---a-daabb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
 | X                |   | O        O  O    |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X        X       |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  O     X       |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  O     X       |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 113  O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

O has two juicy homeboard blots to shoot at if X leaves a shot and gets
hit. So, 13/4 looks tempting - ahead by 13 pips with all runners
escaped when misses.

But if O hits with a 12, 13, 14, or 44 there's only one blot to shoot at
and if hit with a 11 there are no blots to shoot at.

That makes me adverse to volunteering a shot. After 8/2 6/3 X is still
ahead by 13 pips with only the midpoint to clear, and O's midpoint won't
be there for long. So, 8/2 6/3.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 3:56:17 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 9/10/2022 8:15 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---C-bC-E-B-bB---a-daabb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

O has two juicy homeboard blots to shoot at if X leaves a shot and gets
hit. So, 13/4 looks tempting - ahead by 13 pips with all runners
escaped when misses.

But if O hits with a 12, 13, 14, or 44 there's only one blot to shoot at
and if hit with a 11 there are no blots to shoot at.

That makes me adverse to volunteering a shot. After 8/2 6/3 X is still
ahead by 13 pips with only the midpoint to clear, and O's midpoint won't
be there for long. So, 8/2 6/3.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

If you were going to pay now wouldn't 10, 7 be far superior to 13/4?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---C-bC-E-B-bB---a-daabb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

To me, most of the indicators for paying now or paying later seemed
to be pointing to paying now. O's board is currently weak and it
rates to get stronger in the next couple of rolls. Paying now with
13/10 13/7 gives O only 11 shots (the minimum) and gives X quite a
good chance of bringing everything home safely without ever leaving
a shot again if he is missed now. Playing 8/2 6/3 seems very awkward, stripping the last spare from his 6pt and creating a blot in his board,
which will give O more leeway for leaving a blot on her midpoint.

Nevertheless, XG pays later. Part of the point is that despite X's inflexible-looking position after 8/2 6/3, on the next roll, only 63
forces him to blot immediately. If O clears her midpoint soon, then
X may never have to leave a direct shot. Still, I don't know that I
would be able to accurately judge a similar position if it were to
come up OTB again.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/3 eq:+0.306
Player: 58.89% (G:2.50% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 41.11% (G:4.50% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.298..+0.315) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.231 (-0.075)
Player: 57.18% (G:4.22% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 42.82% (G:6.66% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.222..+0.240) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 9:13:06 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=---C-bC-E-B-bB---a-daabb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
To me, most of the indicators for paying now or paying later seemed
to be pointing to paying now. O's board is currently weak and it
rates to get stronger in the next couple of rolls. Paying now with
13/10 13/7 gives O only 11 shots (the minimum) and gives X quite a
good chance of bringing everything home safely without ever leaving
a shot again if he is missed now. Playing 8/2 6/3 seems very awkward, stripping the last spare from his 6pt and creating a blot in his board, which will give O more leeway for leaving a blot on her midpoint.

Nevertheless, XG pays later. Part of the point is that despite X's inflexible-looking position after 8/2 6/3, on the next roll, only 63
forces him to blot immediately. If O clears her midpoint soon, then
X may never have to leave a direct shot. Still, I don't know that I
would be able to accurately judge a similar position if it were to
come up OTB again.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/3 eq:+0.306
Player: 58.89% (G:2.50% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 41.11% (G:4.50% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.298..+0.315) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.231 (-0.075)
Player: 57.18% (G:4.22% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 42.82% (G:6.66% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.222..+0.240) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

While yes, paying now is easy to clean up a couple things we can't forget even when the opponent has a blotted home board. First, how many of the hitting numbers hit and cover. Here we see 7/11 hit and cover at least one blot and the opponent is still
happy to hit with the other 4 rolls since he still has the stronger board. Another thing to remember is while "and gives X quite a good chance of bringing everything home safely without ever leaving a shot again if he is missed now" it's true, it's also
that our racing lead isn't as big as we'd like (we aren't cashing any time soon or even doubling most likely). As you also mentioned and needs to be reemphasized as a big piece of the puzzle, the opponent has no timing in his outfield checkers _since_
he is close enough in the race. He will have to pull those checkers from the midpoint almost immediately in most sequences and now we can get by with leaving just an indirect if we so choose.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

6/3 6/1 is terribly ugly, but I thought that O's board was too strong
to play 13/10 13/8. XG 3-ply agrees with 6/3 6/1, but a rollout
overturns that verdict. Evidently, O's blot in her board is enough
to swing the balance (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.442
Player: 31.48% (G:12.31% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 68.52% (G:28.79% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.451..-0.433) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.585 (-0.143)
Player: 28.35% (G:6.26% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 71.65% (G:30.07% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.595..-0.575) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----cbbb---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.599
Player: 27.81% (G:6.71% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 72.19% (G:30.23% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.609..-0.589) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.618 (-0.019)
Player: 26.88% (G:7.12% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 73.12% (G:30.85% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.626..-0.611) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)