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  • 4-away/5-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 15 15:40:46 2022
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 16 11:06:24 2022
    15 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 22:40:48 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    If I were X, I would double without hesitation. All doubles work well and he has an additional 6 rolls to make his bar point, 14 total. He has a good homeboard and enough builders outside.
    For O, the conditions are different. Ok, it's not too bad, but the gammon value is quite high at 4a-5a.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 16 11:17:45 2022
    15 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 22:40:48 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    If I were X, I would double without hesitation. All doubles work well and he has an additional 6 rolls to make his bar point, 14 total. He has a good homeboard and enough builders outside.
    For O, the conditions are different. Ok, it's not too bad, but the gammon value is quite high at 4a-5a.
    The key point is that the mutual gammon values are high. and with two checkers behind there is a high risk

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 17 06:59:57 2022
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
    marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
    to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
    better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
    either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
    X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
    O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
    For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.

    What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
    It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
    Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
    Double/Take: +0.861
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 17 05:49:26 2022
    17 Mayıs 2022 Salı tarihinde saat 14:00:01 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
    marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
    to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
    better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
    either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
    X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
    O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
    For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.

    What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
    It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
    Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
    Double/Take: +0.861
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    You're right, I was surprised too. I quickly looked at the scores one by one for the 7-point game. D/T looks correct on most scores (except 4a-5a, 4a-4a, 2a-? , 3a-?)
    Maybe not enough to say gammonish. Even at the beginning of the game, the gammon percentage is about 15 percent. I hope I remember this position as an important reference.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed May 18 01:43:08 2022
    On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:00:01 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
    marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
    to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
    better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
    either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
    X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
    O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
    For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.

    What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
    It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
    Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
    Double/Take: +0.861
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The take point AtS is higher than money. The GV is obviously much higher than money. This also isn't a position where I see a lot of value coming from owning the cube as the 5 away player.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 22 09:51:03 2023
    XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Oct 22 16:19:41 2023
    On Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:51:07 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    DT for money with lots of gammons in the air for the 5a player at 5a 4a usually equates to DP.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 24 07:47:21 2023
    XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    In non-gammonish positions, the cube action at 4-away/5-away is not
    all that different from money, but gammons can change the equation dramatically. The rollout below says that X wins over 30% gammons
    here, which is much higher than I thought. XG says this is an easy
    take for money (~0.8) but a big pass ATS.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.11% (G:29.78% B:1.22%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.89% (G:10.00% B:0.61%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.55% (G:32.73% B:2.36%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.45% (G:11.42% B:0.99%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.768 (-0.232)
    Double/Take: +1.173 (+0.173)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.754..+0.782)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+1.151..+1.194)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Oct 27 11:33:33 2023
    On 10/22/2023 9:51 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O       |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |    X        X  O |   | X  X  X  X       |
     |    X        X  O |   | X  X  X  X  O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 124  O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Race is even, X has a straggler to run home, and O has the bar point
    anchor. The take seems clear.

    Can X cube? 33 and 66 are market losers, and hitting on the 21 followed
    by a dance. That might be enough - 2 plus half of 13 is close to the
    requisite nine, but the part of O'Hagens's law about "nothing bad
    otherwise" doesn't seem to apply.

    I'll hold the cube here. ND/T.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Fri Oct 27 12:48:32 2023
    On Friday, October 27, 2023 at 11:33:38 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
    On 10/22/2023 9:51 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Race is even, X has a straggler to run home, and O has the bar point
    anchor. The take seems clear.

    Can X cube? 33 and 66 are market losers, and hitting on the 21 followed
    by a dance. That might be enough - 2 plus half of 13 is close to the requisite nine, but the part of O'Hagens's law about "nothing bad
    otherwise" doesn't seem to apply.

    I'll hold the cube here. ND/T.

    O'Hagan's Law is meant for money games (or normal scores) only. It wouldn't apply here. If you were applying it to this position for money one thing you'd need to realize is that if we hit the opponent on his 4pt a lot of his entering numbers are still
    passes.

    Stick

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