A while ago, I asked for positions in money play where ND and D/T are
both optimal.
It looks like I may very well have hit on a position in an OTB game that answers my own question! Although XG sees a difference by 0.001 or
0.002, it's quite likely to be some type of roundoff pasta, meaning that there's no difference at all.
I was very surprised at the take though. I remember being taught that
a closeout of two checkers on the bar is double and close take even
when the opponent has removed all 13 other checkers.
XG's remaining checkers on the deuce point, makes XG's bearoff much
slower. It seems that what I was told (in the early days of modern bg theory) is just wrong.
On 5/15/2022 7:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
A while ago, I asked for positions in money play where ND and D/T are
both optimal.
It looks like I may very well have hit on a position in an OTB game that answers my own question! Although XG sees a difference by 0.001 or
0.002, it's quite likely to be some type of roundoff pasta, meaning that there's no difference at all.
I was very surprised at the take though. I remember being taught thatThis position rolls out to a pass. But should we trust the rollout?
a closeout of two checkers on the bar is double and close take even
when the opponent has removed all 13 other checkers.
XG's remaining checkers on the deuce point, makes XG's bearoff much slower. It seems that what I was told (in the early days of modern bg theory) is just wrong.
XGID=bBBBCBB-------A--A-----b--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.08% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.998 (-0.002)
Redouble/Take: +1.029 (+0.029)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.995..+1.000)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.020..+1.038)
On 5/15/2022 7:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
A while ago, I asked for positions in money play where ND and D/T are
both optimal.
It looks like I may very well have hit on a position in an OTB game that answers my own question! Although XG sees a difference by 0.001 or
0.002, it's quite likely to be some type of roundoff pasta, meaning that there's no difference at all.
I was very surprised at the take though. I remember being taught thatThis position rolls out to a pass. But should we trust the rollout?
a closeout of two checkers on the bar is double and close take even
when the opponent has removed all 13 other checkers.
XG's remaining checkers on the deuce point, makes XG's bearoff much slower. It seems that what I was told (in the early days of modern bg theory) is just wrong.
XGID=bBBBCBB-------A--A-----b--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.08% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.998 (-0.002)
Redouble/Take: +1.029 (+0.029)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.995..+1.000)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.020..+1.038)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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