Here, any 3 that is not answered with a 61 is surely a massive market loser This happens with probability 14/36 * 17/18 = 119/324. This is nearly
37%. So I'm sure that _considering_ doubling is correct.
One objection to doubling might be that I don't have a particularly big
edge. I'm doing great if I get my 3, but I'm an underdog to make it,
and maybe I'm doing badly enough if I miss to make it a hold.
I thought this might be the case and that's why my double was by no
means confident. The mystery (to me) is that the equity figures
don't make sense. If there's not much to double about, why does D/T
still give me 0.437??
On 5/15/2022 5:02 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Here, any 3 that is not answered with a 61 is surely a massive market loser This happens with probability 14/36 * 17/18 = 119/324. This is nearlyWell, if X rolls 31 then he might not lose his market, and even if X
37%. So I'm sure that _considering_ doubling is correct.
rolls 21 then O can probably take after 11 or 31 as well as 61. But
that doesn't change your main point.
One objection to doubling might be that I don't have a particularly big edge. I'm doing great if I get my 3, but I'm an underdog to make it,I believe this reasoning is sound.
and maybe I'm doing badly enough if I miss to make it a hold.
I thought this might be the case and that's why my double was by noRedoubling as a backgamer is a little different from your typical
means confident. The mystery (to me) is that the equity figures
don't make sense. If there's not much to double about, why does D/T
still give me 0.437??
redoubling decision. After a bad exchange, you typically have higher
chances of getting gammoned than in a "typical" advantageous position.
More generally, rules of thumb about the relationship between the
equity and the cube action don't always hold for backgame positions.
Dirk Schiemann discusses this point briefly in his book "Theory of Backgammon," though I think he only explicitly considers cube actions
in which the backgamee is on roll, rather than post-hit backgamer
cube actions.
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