• Beware of the pseudo-Axel

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 14 05:10:29 2022
    If I complained that the below position Axelises to an incorrect hold,
    I might get a lot of responses asking me to check my Isight.
    After all, it isn't a non-contact position.
    However, every non-beginner sees this position as a race, and
    (almost) every strong player would be using some type of formula here.
    This type of almost-no-contact race is extremely common.
    I don't think these should be Axelised -- my experience is that 8/9/12
    gives better results for this type of position. For one thing, the crossovers and high-point gaps aren't very relevant here. But 8/9/12 should be adjusted for high stacks on lower points.
    This is not a criticism of Isight at all, since it has been recommended
    for races, not near-races.
    I correctly doubled here, and I was quite confident about it.

    XGID=----C-CBB-ABdB-b-badb-----:0:0:1:00:9:9:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon


    Score is X:9 O:9. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 129 X-O: 9-9
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in 4-ply
    Player Winning Chances: 74.94% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.499, Double=+0.998

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.776 (-0.043)
    Double/Take: +0.819
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.181)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)