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  • Hit or make the 4pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 13 09:22:22 2022
    XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 14 08:52:22 2022
    13 Mayıs 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 16:22:27 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Hitting is not a wrong theme, actually. The problem is that there is no better option to do with six. I don't want to give the initiative to the opponent by playing 24/18. Even with 43, XG does justice to the hitting move.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 15 15:39:58 2022
    XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    atilamalcok suggests that the drawback with hitting is that X has no
    good 6. It's true that 24/18 isn't a great 6, but it's not terrible
    either, especially when O is on the bar. At DMP, 24/18 13/9* is a
    reasonable play according to XG (see rollout below). However, all
    those blots do leave X vulnerable to getting gammoned.

    1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:-0.037
    Player: 48.96% (G:17.86% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 51.04% (G:17.42% B:0.80%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.050..-0.024) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9* eq:-0.127 (-0.090)
    Player: 48.29% (G:14.96% B:0.85%)
    Opponent: 51.71% (G:21.92% B:1.95%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.141..-0.113) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    DMP
    ---

    XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:1:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:-0.016
    Player: 49.22% (G:17.43% B:1.41%)
    Opponent: 50.78% (G:17.77% B:2.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.020..-0.011) - [99.4%]

    2. Rollo