• St. Patersburg Paradox in gamblegammon

    From MK@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 10 02:04:14 2022
    St. Patersburg Paradox (SPP from here on), was mentioned
    in RGB a few times around 20 some years ago but only once
    directly related to backgammon. Here's the link for it again:

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/pnQ1s76ih5s/m/VAYl_JE3e74J

    Even then, Zare says: "This position is a generalization of the
    Petersburg Paradox." and goes on to explain the difference:
    "In the classical paradox,....."

    What makes that position similar to SPP is not because of the
    equities, (which can be whatever), but because of the odds of
    entering being the same for both players, which turns it into a
    pure luck game like coin tossing. And when the loop ends, the
    game doesn't necessarily end immediately but can end in just
    another roll or two.

    That same example position could come up in a cubeless game
    also and the same loop would happen. Thus, it has nothing to
    do with the cube either. In a cubeless game, when the loop ends
    the game is most likely to be played out to the end.

    Then, it was quite puzzling to see Axel refer to SPP during the
    "mutant experiment" discussions, in almost every other post,
    talking about cube going too high, especially when beavers and
    raccoons are allowed.

    Cube actions are based on equities. Cube can go very high in
    games without a "mutant strategy" also. That's just part of the
    gamblegammon.

    In the experiment, cube skyrocketed because Gnubg beavered
    at MWC's < 50% while at the same time the mutant doubled
    and raccooned at MWC's >50%.

    So, the problem was not caused by the acts of beavering and
    raccooning but caused by the cube skill/strategy/theory being
    fundamentally flawed.

    I say fundamentally because just changing some jackoff-ski
    formulas to not beaver at MWC's < 50% won't solve it.

    If a certain "mutant-b" uses a strategy of doubling/racooning
    at MWC's >55%, then Gnubg will need to not beaver at MWC's
    <55% and so on, in order to prevent what Axel call SPP...

    Not allowing raccoons, beavers or even just doubles at some
    local games will change the fact that the so-claimed "cube
    skill theory" is mostly elaborate bullshit.

    The cube can go "too high" in match play also, depending on
    what one considers too high relative to match length.

    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match, would Axel
    also call that SPP?

    I had the idea of defeating the cube skill almost as soon as
    I was exposed to it. Here again the link to an article I posted
    all the way back in 1999:

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/o4qnefr7XeU/m/oVZ4DeF0rcsJ

    I suggest you read it again and carefully and try to undertand
    what others couldn't back then.

    Because I didn't know how to propose a bet based on actual
    vs. expected wins at that time, I came up with betting on my
    beating Gnubg 25-0 in 25-point matches and I was soliciting
    what odds would people offer me.

    Since even losing 1 point would mean my losing the match,
    some people proposed that I could start by spotting Gnubg
    24 points thinking it would be the same thing. Obviously they
    couln't understand my purpose of defeating the cube skill and
    that playing with a dead cube wouldn't be the same thing.

    BTW: I keep using the word "defeat" not to mean "win more
    than 50% against cube skill" (as may be misunderstood by
    some) but to mean "nullify", "destroy" the "cube skill theory".

    Some people (including Zare in that same thread) actually
    argued that unless I spotted Gnubg 24 points, the bot wouldn't
    know what I was trying to do and wouldn't do well... Duh! :)

    My frustration in RGB from the very beginnings has beeb that
    people here don't have enough brains to understand what I'm
    talking about. At times I thought it may have been a language
    problem but obviously that's not it since they parrot back the
    same rotes again and again, based on some trigger words,
    regardless of the context. :(

    So, what Axel call SPP is not due to beavers and critters but
    simply due to the flawed "cube skill theory". Simply banning
    critters or putting all sort of caps in money or match plays
    is not going to solve the problem.

    Just shovel out the bullshit and get done with once for all. :)

    BTW: I asked Axel in another thread to reword his statements
    about SPP without using the words "Petersburg Paradox" but
    by using some alternative words so that we can understand
    better but he refused. Well, at least I can understand how it
    would be difficult to replace meaningless expressions with
    meaningful ones... ;)

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 10 06:53:16 2022
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:
    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match, would Axel
    also call that SPP?

    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does not exist.
    When there is a maximum possible value (here, 25 points) then the
    expected value always exists.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue May 10 09:46:18 2022
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 5:30:21 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 11:53:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:
    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match, would Axel
    also call that SPP?
    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does not exist.
    When there is a maximum possible value (here, 25 points) then the
    expected value always exists.
    I disagree with this. In the form of the SPP that I know, the expected value is infinite.
    This is not really a paradox at all. The expected value is infinite: so what?

    But the reason I disagree with you is that you can variantize the SPP to make the expected
    value finite but still retain its essential features.

    For example: Let the total dollar value of all the money on Earth = N.
    Now, assume that your winnings are capped at N, regardless of how many coin tosses go in your direction.

    Clearly, the expected value is now finite.
    But we still have an SPP.
    If a total solution to the SPP was "But the amount of money is finite", the "paradox" would have less content than it does.

    Paul


    In fact, I just googled it and got:
    "The St. Petersburg paradox is a situation where a naive decision criterion which takes only the expected value into account predicts a course of action that
    presumably no actual person would be willing to take. It is related to probability and decision theory in economics."

    For that, the expected value only leads to be sufficiently large, not infinite. It's infinitudinizationness is hardly "the essence".

    Paul

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue May 10 09:48:32 2022
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 5:46:19 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 5:30:21 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 11:53:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:
    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match, would Axel
    also call that SPP?
    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does not exist.
    When there is a maximum possible value (here, 25 points) then the expected value always exists.
    I disagree with this. In the form of the SPP that I know, the expected value is infinite.
    This is not really a paradox at all. The expected value is infinite: so what?

    But the reason I disagree with you is that you can variantize the SPP to make the expected
    value finite but still retain its essential features.

    For example: Let the total dollar value of all the money on Earth = N.
    Now, assume that your winnings are capped at N, regardless of how many coin tosses go in your direction.

    Clearly, the expected value is now finite.
    But we still have an SPP.
    If a total solution to the SPP was "But the amount of money is finite", the "paradox" would have less content than it does.

    Paul
    In fact, I just googled it and got:
    "The St. Petersburg paradox is a situation where a naive decision criterion which takes only the expected value into account predicts a course of action that
    presumably no actual person would be willing to take. It is related to probability and decision theory in economics."

    For that, the expected value only leads to be sufficiently large, not infinite. It's infinitudinizationness is hardly "the essence".

    Paul
    "leads" -> "needs"
    "It's" -> "its"

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue May 10 09:30:20 2022
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 11:53:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:
    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match, would Axel
    also call that SPP?
    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does not exist.
    When there is a maximum possible value (here, 25 points) then the
    expected value always exists.

    I disagree with this. In the form of the SPP that I know, the expected value is infinite.
    This is not really a paradox at all. The expected value is infinite: so what?

    But the reason I disagree with you is that you can variantize the SPP to make the expected
    value finite but still retain its essential features.

    For example: Let the total dollar value of all the money on Earth = N.
    Now, assume that your winnings are capped at N, regardless of how many coin tosses go in your direction.

    Clearly, the expected value is now finite.
    But we still have an SPP.
    If a total solution to the SPP was "But the amount of money is finite", the "paradox" would have less content than it does.

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue May 10 14:15:31 2022
    On May 10, 2022 at 10:46:19 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On May 10, 2022 at 5:30:21 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On May 10, 2022 at 11:53:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:

    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match,
    would Axel also call that SPP?

    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does
    not exist. When there is a maximum possible value
    (here, 25 points) then the expected value always exists.

    I wasn't asking if it would be SPP but if "Axel would call
    it SPP". I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP
    in the gamblegammon context.

    Also, would it make a difference if it were a 10,000-point
    or 4,000,000,000-point match? Again, I'm just trying to
    understand how cube and SPP can be linked in any way.

    But the reason I disagree with you is that you can variantize
    the SPP to make the expected value finite but still retain its
    essential features.

    Are you saying that this is what Axel is doing? I wish he
    himself would also try to explain what he is doing.

    If a total solution to the SPP was "But the amount of money
    is finite", the "paradox" would have less content than it does.

    Just when I think I undestand, I don't. :(

    For that, the expected value only leads to be sufficiently large,
    not infinite. It's infinitudinizationness is hardly "the essence".

    "Infinitudinizationness"... Thanks for making me smile. :)

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Wed May 11 00:30:22 2022
    On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 10:15:32 PM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 10, 2022 at 10:46:19 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On May 10, 2022 at 5:30:21 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On May 10, 2022 at 11:53:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 5/10/2022 5:04 AM, MK wrote:

    If the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match,
    would Axel also call that SPP?

    No. The essence of SPP is that the expected value does
    not exist. When there is a maximum possible value
    (here, 25 points) then the expected value always exists.
    I wasn't asking if it would be SPP but if "Axel would call
    it SPP". I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP
    in the gamblegammon context.

    Also, would it make a difference if it were a 10,000-point
    or 4,000,000,000-point match? Again, I'm just trying to
    understand how cube and SPP can be linked in any way.
    But the reason I disagree with you is that you can variantize
    the SPP to make the expected value finite but still retain its
    essential features.
    Are you saying that this is what Axel is doing? I wish he
    himself would also try to explain what he is doing.
    If a total solution to the SPP was "But the amount of money
    is finite", the "paradox" would have less content than it does.
    Just when I think I undestand, I don't. :(
    For that, the expected value only leads to be sufficiently large,
    not infinite. It's infinitudinizationness is hardly "the essence".
    "Infinitudinizationness"... Thanks for making me smile. :)

    MK

    Yes, I enjoy lengthening already long words like "variantization" or ""Infinitudinizationness" -- glad you appreciate this.
    I don't know what Axel is doing because I haven't got time / don't what to spend the time to read what he wrote.

    The standard presentation of the SPP has two features:
    1) An illustration of the fact that you sometimes don't want to max your expected value, but take the utility of your wealth into account.
    2) Infinite expectation.

    Of these two features, 1) is far more important than 2). Furthermore, 1) and 2) are independent of each other. Either can be illustrated
    without illustrating the other.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed May 11 09:17:43 2022
    On 5/11/2022 3:30 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I don't know what Axel is doing because I haven't got time / don't what to spend the time to read what he wrote.

    The essence of what Axel means by SPP *in the current context* is
    that the expected value does not exist.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu May 12 17:40:46 2022
    On May 11, 2022 at 1:30:23 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    I don't know what Axel is doing because I haven't got
    time / don't what to spend the time to read what he wrote.

    This is so unfortunate. Axel made considerable efforts
    for moths and posted some calculations that probably
    only mathematicians could understand but was ignored
    by all, including the chest-beating mathshitters except
    Chow who only superficially participated in the threads.

    In the end, I'm feeling sad/bad for him. I also feel sorry
    that I melself haven't been nice enough to him. :( I tried
    to be though and would have if he were to break away
    from the "pack" as I repeatedly encouraged him to do.
    He chose not and I kept treating him as one of the pack.
    Instead, his ilk deserted him. Too bad. :( Maybe another
    time. It's never too late.

    The standard presentation of the SPP has two features:
    .....

    What I would like to know specifically is if and how SPP
    applies to gamblegammon? With real examples, please.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu May 12 17:58:28 2022
    On May 11, 2022 at 7:17:45 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    The essence of what Axel means by SPP *in the current
    context* is that the expected value does not exist.

    https://usbgf.org/backgammon-glossary/

    defines "equity" as "One’s value in the current game,
    mathematically equivalent to the expected value".

    So, then, it means (its "mathematically equivalent")
    "equity does not exists".

    Can someone explain what "equity does not exists"
    means?

    If it comes to a point that equity can't be calculated,
    wouldn't any cube action dependent of equity stop
    there also?

    Any cube actions prior to that, correctly done based
    on equities can't be SPP by any strectch of definition.

    Unless cube actions continue with unknown equities,
    there can't be SPP after that either. So, do you all say
    that beavers, etc. continue even after the equities (or
    "expected values") cease to exist? And if so, how?

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 13 03:16:00 2022
    On Friday, May 13, 2022 at 1:58:29 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 11, 2022 at 7:17:45 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    The essence of what Axel means by SPP *in the current
    context* is that the expected value does not exist.
    https://usbgf.org/backgammon-glossary/

    defines "equity" as "One’s value in the current game,
    mathematically equivalent to the expected value".

    So, then, it means (its "mathematically equivalent")
    "equity does not exists".

    Can someone explain what "equity does not exists"
    means?

    If it comes to a point that equity can't be calculated,
    wouldn't any cube action dependent of equity stop
    there also?

    Any cube actions prior to that, correctly done based
    on equities can't be SPP by any strectch of definition.

    Unless cube actions continue with unknown equities,
    there can't be SPP after that either. So, do you all say
    that beavers, etc. continue even after the equities (or
    "expected values") cease to exist? And if so, how?

    In SPP, the expected value does exist and is infinite.
    Tim probably meant "does not exist as a finite number."

    There's no paradox about this. Some numbers just are infinite.
    For example, the number of prime numbers is infinite.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri May 13 09:04:06 2022
    On 5/13/2022 6:16 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    In SPP, the expected value does exist and is infinite.
    Tim probably meant "does not exist as a finite number."

    You're right that sometimes it can be convenient to say
    that the expected value of a random variable is +infinity.
    However, in the context of a game, I prefer to say that the
    expected value, or equity, does not exist. We're in the realm
    of applied math rather than pure math here. To say that the
    expected value exists and is +infinity makes it sound like
    assigning that value to the game allows you to draw meaningful
    conclusions, but it doesn't, really. It's clearer just to say
    that there is no meaningful or useful number that one can attach
    to the game.

    To answer Murat's question, "equity" is a number that we assign
    to a position (where by a "position" I include the information
    about the cube value and location, and whose turn it is) which
    is supposed to predict how much money we would earn (or lose,
    if the equity is negative) per session if we were to play out
    that exact same position over and over again. There is a tacit
    assumption that if we play out the position often enough, then
    our wins and losses will "average out" and settle down to some
    long-term average payoff per session.

    To say that the equity does not exist means that there is something
    about the position that undermines the tacit assumption---no matter
    how often you play out the position, the payoff per session does not
    "average out in the long run and settle down." In the case at hand,
    what is happening is that if you play a large number of games, then
    there's a good chance that in at least one game, there will be a huge
    cube value that throws off the overall average. To smooth out the
    effect of that huge cube value, you have to play even more games, but
    when you do that, there's a chance of an even huger cube value showing
    up at least once, which throws things off again. No matter how many
    times you repeat this process, things never settle down.

    This can happen only if the cube value is allowed to be arbitrarily
    large. If it's capped at (say) 1024, then the average payoff per
    session will settle down once the number of sessions you play is large
    compared to 1024.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri May 13 18:51:23 2022
    On May 13, 2022 at 7:04:11 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    However, in the context of a game, I prefer to say
    that the expected value, or equity, does not exist.

    At the risk of shocking you all, I say thank you for
    making the effort to post this. It shows that when
    we really want, we can communicate. Why was it
    so hard to talk about SPP "in the context at hand"?

    We're in the realm of applied math rather than pure
    math here.

    This is the key. I too admire the eloquence in math
    formulas but they may not always apply to real life
    situations.

    To answer Murat's question, "equity" is a number
    that we assign to a position (where by a "position"
    I include the information about the cube value and
    location, and whose turn it is) which is supposed to
    predict how much money we would earn (or lose, if
    the equity is negative) per session if we were to play
    out that exact same position over and over again.

    I'll agree with the clarification that equity can be and
    (as far I understand), is currently determined cubeless
    first, then cubeful equity is calculated using a formula.

    There is a tacit assumption that if we play out the
    position often enough, then our wins and losses will
    "average out" and settle down to some long-term
    average payoff per session.

    Again, I'll agree if I understand you correctly that when
    luck evens out after enough trials, wins and losses will
    settle down to some values "assuming" that the players
    are also of the same skill level and play consistently.

    Then, only if we also "assume" that these "benchmark
    values" result from best/perfect/optimum strategy, we
    can assess other players' skills by comparing to these.

    In order to not distract from the main subject here, I'll
    just say that I won't dispute the accuracy of cubeless
    equities beyond my argument that more than only one
    best/perfect/optimum strategies are possible, which
    may or may not lead to the same equity values.

    What I'm disputing here is that cubeful equities except
    for positions towards the end of games are bogus and
    can be demostrated by experiment like Axel has done
    (just to make me happy:))

    To say that the equity does not exist means that there
    is something about the position that undermines the
    tacit assumption---no matter how often you play out the
    position, the payoff per session does not "average out
    in the long run and settle down."

    I want to mention here that this won't happen in cubeless
    positions just to preserve the contrast.

    In the case at hand, what is happening is that if you play
    a large number of games, then there's a good chance
    that in at least one game, there will be a huge cube value
    that throws off the overall average. To smooth out the
    effect of that huge cube value, you have to play even
    more games, but when you do that, there's a chance of
    an even huger cube value showing up at least once,
    which throws things off again. No matter how many
    times you repeat this process, things never settle down.

    This, I don't understand and pursue further. Many people
    offered statistics in the past about the average number
    of moves in a money game, from 21 to 27. Let's say 24
    is good enough for the "real life gamblegammon context".

    Since all other numbers mentioned are also averages, in
    games of average 24 moves, the cube can't keep going
    higher past a natural limit. This, if you play a large enough
    number of games, all possible cube values should settle,
    no??

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    This can happen only if the cube value is allowed to be
    arbitrarily large. If it's capped at (say) 1024, then the
    average payoff per session will settle down once the
    number of sessions you play is large compared to 1024.

    Why should large cube values matter? Math is math and
    numbers are numbers. The problem is in the so-called
    "best/perfect/optimum cube strategy theory" which can
    be defeated even by such a crude "mutant" as Axel used
    in the experiment that I had proposed. You'll just have to
    accept this sooner or later.

    The 1024 limit in XG and 4096 limit in Gnubg were not
    in order to prevent the "equity does not exist" problem
    but for a more realistic cube strategy closer to idea of
    "table stakes" limit. I doubt it (and apparently no sign of
    it either) that they had any idea that cube skill debates
    would ever come to this. They were not just thinking of
    numbers but of "numbers of units" (like dollars, degrees,
    grams, meters, etc.) We can treat numbers as numbers
    only and stil stay within the realm of applied math...

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 14 09:33:56 2022
    On 5/13/2022 9:51 PM, MK wrote:
    On May 13, 2022 at 7:04:11 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:
    To answer Murat's question, "equity" is a number
    that we assign to a position (where by a "position"
    I include the information about the cube value and
    location, and whose turn it is) which is supposed to
    predict how much money we would earn (or lose, if
    the equity is negative) per session if we were to play
    out that exact same position over and over again.

    I'll agree with the clarification that equity can be and
    (as far I understand), is currently determined cubeless
    first, then cubeful equity is calculated using a formula.

    That is how bots *estimate* equity, but it's not how equity
    is *mathematically defined*. It's defined the way I stated
    above, as the long-term average. (For sticklers like Paul,
    I'm implicitly using the law of large numbers to define
    expected value, rather than using the standard definition.)

    There is a tacit assumption that if we play out the
    position often enough, then our wins and losses will
    "average out" and settle down to some long-term
    average payoff per session.

    Again, I'll agree if I understand you correctly that when
    luck evens out after enough trials, wins and losses will
    settle down to some values "assuming" that the players
    are also of the same skill level and play consistently.

    Yes, it is important to assume that the players play consistently.
    It's actually not necessary to assume that they have the same skill
    level as long as they play consistently, but let's go ahead and
    assume that. In fact, the usual assumption is that the players
    have "solved" backgammon (think AlphaZero backgammon, if you like)
    and play accordingly.

    This, I don't understand and pursue further. Many people
    offered statistics in the past about the average number
    of moves in a money game, from 21 to 27. Let's say 24
    is good enough for the "real life gamblegammon context".

    Since all other numbers mentioned are also averages, in
    games of average 24 moves, the cube can't keep going
    higher past a natural limit. This, if you play a large enough
    number of games, all possible cube values should settle,
    no??

    If there were an upper limit on the length of a game then what
    you say here is correct. But 24 is an *average* number. An
    individual game could potentially last an arbitrarily long time.

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    This is the key question. If the equity does not exist,
    then it doesn't matter how many games you play; the average
    payoff per game won't settle down.

    This can happen only if the cube value is allowed to be
    arbitrarily large. If it's capped at (say) 1024, then the
    average payoff per session will settle down once the
    number of sessions you play is large compared to 1024.

    Why should large cube values matter? Math is math and
    numbers are numbers. The problem is in the so-called
    "best/perfect/optimum cube strategy theory" which can
    be defeated even by such a crude "mutant" as Axel used
    in the experiment that I had proposed. You'll just have to
    accept this sooner or later.

    Suppose we have a sequence of numbers, each of which is between
    -3072 and +3072 (representing a backgammon with the maximum cube
    value of 1024). Suppose they represent the outcomes of a sequence
    of games played by consistent, equally skillful players as we
    discussed above. As we play more and more games, we can compute
    a running average---the net payoff after n games, divided by n.
    This running average will fluctuate, perhaps rather dramatically
    at first, but as n gets larger, I claim that it will eventually
    settle down to some number (in fact, if we are using the standard
    starting position of backgammon, which is symmetrical, then the
    running average will settle down to zero, but if we start with an
    asymmetrical position that favors one player, then it will not
    settle down to zero, but it will still settle down to *some*
    number). In particular, there's no way that the running average
    can get bigger and bigger as n gets larger, for the simple reason
    that the most I can win in a single game is 3072, so no matter
    how many games I play, my running average can never get higher
    than 3072 points per game.

    On the other hand, suppose there is no limit on the cube value.
    Then there is no reason in principle why the running average
    couldn't get larger and larger as n gets larger, without ever
    settling down. Here's an artificial example that wouldn't
    actually happen in practice but which illustrates the idea and
    which you can check yourself with a simple computer program.
    If n is a natural number, let v(n) be the highest power of 2
    that divides n. So for example if n is a power of 2 then
    v(n) = n; if n is even but not a multiple of 4 then v(n) = 2;
    if n is odd then v(n) = 1; etc. The sequence v(1), v(2), ...
    starts off like this:

    1, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 8, 1, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 16, 1, 2, 1, 4,
    1, 2, 1, 8, 1, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 32, ...

    Now imagine that these numbers represent the payoffs of a sequence
    of backgammon games. We can try to compute the running average.
    For example, after 4 games, our net payoff is 1 + 2 + 1 + 4 = 8,
    so our average payoff per game is 8/4 = 2. After 16 games, our
    net payoff is

    1 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 8 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 16

    which works out to 48, so our average payoff per game is 48/16 = 3.
    You can check with a computer that after 4^k games, the average
    payoff per game is k+1, which gets bigger and bigger as k gets
    bigger. It never settles down. It is important that the value of
    a single game can be arbitrarily large, or else this can't happen.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon May 16 00:53:55 2022
    On May 14, 2022 at 7:34:04 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 5/13/2022 9:51 PM, MK wrote:

    I'll agree with the clarification that equity can be and
    (as far I understand), is currently determined cubeless
    first, then cubeful equity is calculated using a formula.

    That is how bots *estimate* equity, but it's not how
    equity is *mathematically defined*. It's defined the
    way I stated above, as the long-term average.

    Okay, what will it take for you to accept that the bots
    do not *estimate* equity as *mathematically defined*
    and that their estimates are inaccuarte by unknowable
    amounts?

    Especially because traing your steps backwards from
    end positions "combinatorially explode" and because
    in backgammon the same positions can be arrived at
    through more than one path.

    (For sticklers like Paul, I'm implicitly using the law
    of large numbers to define expected value, rather
    than using the standard definition.)

    I brought in the USBGF's definition that "equity" is
    "One’s value in the current game, mathematically
    equivalent to the expected value". I hope USBGF
    isn't trying to accommodate sticklers also(?).

    Since all other numbers mentioned are also averages,
    in games of average 24 moves, the cube can't keep
    going higher past a natural limit. This, if you play a
    large enough number of games, all possible cube
    values should settle, no??

    If there were an upper limit on the length of a game
    then what you say here is correct. But 24 is an
    *average* number. An individual game could
    potentially last an arbitrarily long time.

    I don't understand why you have a problem with this
    average number when you don't have any problems
    with all kinds of other average numbers?

    People came up with average number of roll numbers
    looking at tens of millions of games. In real life, it seems
    that it does "settle" to some average numbers. In this:

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/n5rR1MmDdSY/m/rdKdAYxV-7MJ

    Stick, for eample, says "I did this study a long time
    ago and believe my results were 23 rolls was the
    length of the average money game." I don't want to
    needlessly crow but I can give many links if you want.

    So, let me ask you this: if you were to agree to 24 or 23,
    etc. would you change your above argument? Surely the
    "cube skill theory" formulas must assume that games
    don't go arbitrarily long(??).

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead
    of only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate
    to 5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would
    settle" better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    This is the key question. If the equity does not exist,
    then it doesn't matter how many games you play; the
    average payoff per game won't settle down.

    After all this discussion, I still don't understnad when
    equity does not exist? If you don't put a cap on the cube
    does the equity stop existing at some point or does it
    not exist from the very beginning? How about giving
    some real life examples of equity not existing?

    This can happen only if the cube value is allowed to
    be arbitrarily large. If it's capped at (say) 1024, then
    the average payoff per session will settle down once
    the number of sessions you play is large compared
    to 1024.

    Axel concluded that beavers and raccoons end in SPP.
    According to you, that's a false conclusion since without
    a limit on the cube, cubeful games without beavers and
    raccoons allowed can also go arbitrarily long. So then,
    wouldn't you say that even only one double per move is
    allowed, gamblegammon can end in SPP? And why do
    you think Axel didn't find that??

    Suppose we have a sequence of numbers, each of
    which is between -3072 and +3072 (representing a
    backgammon with the maximum cube value of 1024).
    Suppose they represent the outcomes of a sequence
    of games played by consistent, equally skillful players
    as we discussed above. As we play more and more
    games, we can compute a running average---the net
    payoff after n games, divided by n. This running average
    will fluctuate, perhaps rather dramatically at first, but as
    n gets larger, I claim that it will eventually settle down
    to some number (in fact, if we are using the standard
    starting position of backgammon, which is symmetrical,
    then the running average will settle down to zero, but if
    we start with an asymmetrical position that favors one
    player, then it will not settle down to zero, but it will still
    settle down to *some* number). In particular, there's no
    way that the running average can get bigger and bigger
    as n gets larger, for the simple reason that the most I
    can win in a single game is 3072, so no matter how many
    games I play, my running average can never get higher
    than 3072 points per game.

    Okay, very good. I understand all that. What I'm asking is
    "what is the meaning/significance/implication of all this
    in relation to "cube skill theory"?

    On the other hand, suppose there is no limit on the cube
    value. Then there is no reason in principle why the running
    average couldn't get larger and larger as n gets larger,
    without ever settling down.

    This may be the reason for my getting confused. I looks
    like when you say "equity" or "expected value", you mean
    "running average of all equities in all games played".

    If so, this is a huge disconnect. :( If you remember, while
    talking with Axel, I kept talking about "counting potatoes",
    meaning just tallying the games and the points won by
    each player. The reason was that I (the mutant) was trying
    to "defy the torpedos" and turn the games into cubeless
    and force longer games by causing them to be played out
    to the end. It's rather discouraging that we were talking
    about totally different things. Actually, I think Axel started
    out right but midway through the experiment he strayed
    into the pastures of SPP. :( Now I see...

    Here's an artificial example that wouldn't actually happen
    in practice but which illustrates the idea and .....

    Frankly, I would prefer real life examples to artificial ones.

    BTW: There is a paragraph that summarizes Tim's long
    explanation above in a very simple language and a very
    simpled example:

    =============================================== https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value#Definition

    Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die.

    More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on
    the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values
    for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all of which are equally likely
    with a probability of 1/6. The expectation of X is:

    E[X]=1.1/6+2.1/6+3.1/6+4.1/6+5.1/6+6.1/6=3.5.

    If one rolls the die n times and computes the average
    (arithmetic mean) of the results, then as n grows, the
    average will almost surely converge to the expected
    value, a fact known as the strong law of large numbers. ================================================

    I just quoted it hoping it may help somple people better.

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 16 10:05:51 2022
    On 5/16/2022 3:53 AM, MK wrote:
    On May 14, 2022 at 7:34:04 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:
    That is how bots *estimate* equity, but it's not how
    equity is *mathematically defined*. It's defined the
    way I stated above, as the long-term average.

    Okay, what will it take for you to accept that the bots
    do not *estimate* equity as *mathematically defined*
    and that their estimates are inaccuarte by unknowable
    amounts?

    That their estimates are inaccurate by unknowable amounts
    is an obvious fact.

    (For sticklers like Paul, I'm implicitly using the law
    of large numbers to define expected value, rather
    than using the standard definition.)

    I brought in the USBGF's definition that "equity" is
    "One’s value in the current game, mathematically
    equivalent to the expected value". I hope USBGF
    isn't trying to accommodate sticklers also(?).

    The USBGF definition is fine. My comment was intended only
    for sticklers, not for you. I don't expect you to know the
    official mathematical definition of expected value or to know
    the official statement of the law of large numbers. That is
    not important for the current discussion.

    I don't understand why you have a problem with this
    average number when you don't have any problems
    with all kinds of other average numbers?

    I have no problem with this average number. I am only saying
    that using the average number does not let you draw the conclusion
    that you want to draw.

    So, let me ask you this: if you were to agree to 24 or 23,
    etc. would you change your above argument? Surely the
    "cube skill theory" formulas must assume that games
    don't go arbitrarily long(??).

    No, the cube skill formulas do not assume this.

    After all this discussion, I still don't understnad when
    equity does not exist? If you don't put a cap on the cube
    does the equity stop existing at some point or does it
    not exist from the very beginning? How about giving
    some real life examples of equity not existing?

    Figuring out whether the equity of a given position exists is
    in general not easy. Here's an example of a position whose equity
    does not exist:

    http://timothychow.net/cg/undefined-1.html

    But if you're not willing to take the time to understand the
    artificial example I gave, then you're unlikely to understand
    this example.

    Axel concluded that beavers and raccoons end in SPP.
    According to you, that's a false conclusion since without
    a limit on the cube, cubeful games without beavers and
    raccoons allowed can also go arbitrarily long. So then,
    wouldn't you say that even only one double per move is
    allowed, gamblegammon can end in SPP? And why do
    you think Axel didn't find that??

    I don't disagree with anything Axel said. Just because you
    can get undefined equities without beavers and raccoons doesn't
    mean you can't get undefined equities with them as well.

    Okay, very good. I understand all that. What I'm asking is
    "what is the meaning/significance/implication of all this
    in relation to "cube skill theory"?

    It means that cube skill theory is completely fine in match play,
    because there is a maximum value that the cube can take.

    If so, this is a huge disconnect. :( If you remember, while
    talking with Axel, I kept talking about "counting potatoes",
    meaning just tallying the games and the points won by
    each player. The reason was that I (the mutant) was trying
    to "defy the torpedos" and turn the games into cubeless
    and force longer games by causing them to be played out
    to the end. It's rather discouraging that we were talking
    about totally different things. Actually, I think Axel started
    out right but midway through the experiment he strayed
    into the pastures of SPP. :( Now I see...

    I don't think we're talking about totally different things.
    You asked about undefined equities and that's what I'm talking
    about. The long-term average is the same as the equity. If
    the long-term average does not settle down then the equity does
    not exist. The only way this can happen is if the cube value
    has no upper bound.

    Here's an artificial example that wouldn't actually happen
    in practice but which illustrates the idea and .....

    Frankly, I would prefer real life examples to artificial ones.

    Sure. However, do you understand the artificial example? If
    you don't even understand the simple, artificial example, then
    you're not going to understand the real life examples either.

    BTW: There is a paragraph that summarizes Tim's long
    explanation above in a very simple language and a very
    simpled example:

    There is nothing wrong with this simple explanation, but you
    asked why the cube value has to be unlimited for the expected
    value not to exist. To answer that question requires going into
    more detail than the Wikipedia summary provides.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu May 19 02:13:59 2022
    On May 16, 2022 at 8:05:55 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 5/16/2022 3:53 AM, MK wrote:

    Okay, what will it take for you to accept that the
    bots do not *estimate* equity as *mathematically
    defined* and that their estimates are inaccuarte
    by unknowable amounts?

    That their estimates are inaccurate by unknowable
    amounts is an obvious fact.

    It wasn't obvious neither always nor to all and it still
    isn't. Even to you, only in temporary/easy words but
    not in essence or with any consequences. You just
    make detached statements in order to save the day
    and then continue from where you left off before that.

    The USBGF definition is fine.

    Of course, it's fine but in a different context than what
    Axel, you, etc. have been using it in this thread.

    My comment was intended only for sticklers, not
    for you. I don't expect you to know the official
    mathematical definition of expected value or to
    know the official statement of the law of large
    numbers. That is not important for the current
    discussion.

    Stop trying to put me down by mathshitting and try to
    be more useful by making a case for why a converged
    "running total expected value" is needed in addition to
    just adding up the wins and losses for each player and
    leave it at that?

    That was the whole purpose of the experiment (i.e. to
    collect empirical data) before it turned into SPP bullshit
    (which still wasn't based on correctly applied Markov).

    I don't understand why you have a problem with this
    average number when you don't have any problems
    with all kinds of other average numbers?

    I have no problem with this average number. I am only
    saying that using the average number does not let you
    draw the conclusion that you want to draw.

    Of course, it does. It's puts an even more realistic limit
    on the cube value than your artificial 1024, 4096, etc.

    So, let me ask you this: if you were to agree to 24 or
    23, etc. would you change your above argument?
    Surely the "cube skill theory" formulas must assume
    that games don't go arbitrarily long(??).

    No, the cube skill formulas do not assume this.

    So then, the bots using the cube skill formulas should
    be able to handle large cube values. Why don't they?

    I have used the saying "it takes two to tango" all along
    and saw that you started using it also recently. So why
    Gnubg does tango with the mutant and end up in SPP?

    That it the problem isn't as bad in match play doesn't
    save the "cube skill theory" from being bullshit. If you
    dare call something skill and theory, it needs to work
    in all types of cubeful games. And it needs to work
    especially well in cubeful gamblemmon money games
    because it's whole purpose was expediate gambling!

    After all this discussion, I still don't understnad when
    equity does not exist? If you don't put a cap on the
    cube does the equity stop existing at some point or
    does it not exist from the very beginning? How about
    giving some real life examples of equity not existing?

    Figuring out whether the equity of a given position
    exists is in general not easy. Here's an example of
    a position whose equity does not exist: http://timothychow.net/cg/undefined-1.html
    But if you're not willing to take the time to understand
    the artificial example I gave, then you're unlikely to
    understand this example.

    This example is also "artificial". It's not a legal position.

    Just like other artificial examples you concoct such as
    imaginary footbal games played by tossing coins, etc.

    You never were able to make a case for cube skill except
    by giving real life examples from positions at the last two
    or three rolls in a game.

    Even in the other "infamous example" you made yours
    look like, you debate the correct cube actions based on
    equities estimated by the bots that you acknowledged
    just above as being inaccuarte by unknowable amounts.

    What comes first? The chicken or the egg? Well, who
    gives a shit? All your arguments are teflon coated. You
    are an artificial example of a mathematician yourself.

    I don't disagree with anything Axel said.

    I didn't ask you to disagree with him. Strawman... :(

    Just because you can get undefined equities without
    beavers and raccoons doesn't mean you can't get
    undefined equities with them as well.

    This is a nonsensical sentence. My argument was that
    if the reason for getting undefined equities was games
    lasting arbitrarily long and that games without beavers
    and raccoons can also last arbitrarily long, then in all
    those "one cube only" games in Axel's experiment, he
    should have also ran into undefined equities but he
    hasn't.

    Estoy preguntando: porque no, hombre? Comprendes??

    Okay, very good. I understand all that. What I'm asking
    is "what is the meaning/significance/implication of all
    this in relation to "cube skill theory"?

    It means that cube skill theory is completely fine in
    match play, because there is a maximum value that
    the cube can take.

    Theoretically, this is not correct. Even after the cube gets
    past the match value, there is always a chance that your
    opponent may drop, so both players should keep doubling
    and the cube can get just as high as in money games but
    I'll spare you the agravation and won't dwell on this, "Mr.
    gambletician mathematician"...

    I don't think we're talking about totally different things.
    You asked about undefined equities and that's what I'm
    talking about.

    I meant that the experiment's purpose wasn't to find out
    if undefined equities existed or not. It was to see what
    would happen in real life, if a very very crude "bot mutant"
    was to play a very very long series of games aginst the
    bot that played according to the "cube skill theory".

    Then the discussion strayed into undefined equities, etc.

    There is nothing wrong with this simple explanation, but
    you asked why the cube value has to be unlimited for the
    expected value not to exist.

    No, I didn't ask that at all. In response to your argument
    that the cube needs to be limited by an arbitrary constant
    like 1024, 4096, etc. I offered that "in real life" and average
    money games last about 23-24 rolls, which puts a natural
    limit on the cube.

    To answer that question requires going into more detail
    than the Wikipedia summary provides.

    No, it doesn't. "You need" to show off your mathshitting
    by convoluting the discussion. It's clear in the example
    that there is no problem with expected value because
    the maximum number in a dice roll is limited to 6! Much
    simpler and enough to understand without all you guys'
    "maths and mirrors"...

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 19 03:55:19 2022
    On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:14:00 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 16, 2022 at 8:05:55 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 5/16/2022 3:53 AM, MK wrote:
    ...
    It means that cube skill theory is completely fine in
    match play, because there is a maximum value that
    the cube can take.
    Theoretically, this is not correct. Even after the cube gets
    past the match value, there is always a chance that your
    opponent may drop, so both players should keep doubling
    and the cube can get just as high as in money games
    ...
    I'm not a rules expert, but I think that, if a player owns the cube,
    and the cube has a high enough value so that winning the current game
    at single value wins the match for the cube owner, then the cube owner
    is not allowed to double.

    This prevents the trick of offering the cube and then claiming the match
    if your opponent rejects it.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to It "strayed" there because you on Thu May 19 09:40:26 2022
    On 5/19/2022 5:13 AM, MK wrote:
    On May 16, 2022 at 8:05:55 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:
    That their estimates are inaccurate by unknowable
    amounts is an obvious fact.

    It wasn't obvious neither always nor to all and it still
    isn't. Even to you, only in temporary/easy words but
    not in essence or with any consequences. You just
    make detached statements in order to save the day
    and then continue from where you left off before that.

    No. I have always said this. I don't draw the same
    conclusions that you do from this obvious fact, but the
    fact itself is obvious.

    Stop trying to put me down by mathshitting and try to
    be more useful by making a case for why a converged
    "running total expected value" is needed in addition to
    just adding up the wins and losses for each player and
    leave it at that?

    Suppose I have a fair coin, and I gain $2 whenever it comes
    up heads and $0 whenever it comes up tails. Then the expected
    value per flip is $1. You can't get reliably get this answer
    of $1 by flipping the coin just a few times and adding up the
    wins and losses. Say I flip it 10 times. It might come up
    heads 6 times and tails 4 times, so I'd win $12, and dividing
    by 10 would yield $1.20, not $1. I could flip it 100 times,
    or 1000 times, but it still wouldn't guarantee that I would
    get an answer of $1. To get $1, I have to keep flipping it
    and see what value the answer settles down to (or "converges"
    to, to use the standard term).

    I have no problem with this average number. I am only
    saying that using the average number does not let you
    draw the conclusion that you want to draw.

    Of course, it does. It's puts an even more realistic limit
    on the cube value than your artificial 1024, 4096, etc.

    Again, if the game *never* exceeded 20 rolls then you would
    be correct. But the *average* length can be 20 and the
    expected value could still be infinite (i.e., not exist).

    Suppose that 2/3 of the time, a game lasts 10 rolls, and
    2/9 of the time, a game lasts 20 rolls, and 2/27 of the time,
    a game lasts 40 rolls, and 2/81 of the time, a game lasts
    80 rolls, and so on, with a game lasting 5*2^n rolls 2/3^n
    of the time. Then the average length of a game will be
    20 rolls.

    Now suppose that you win 4 points when the game lasts 10 rolls,
    16 points when the game lasts 20 rolls, 64 points when the game
    lasts 40 rolls, 256 points when the game lasts 80 rolls, and so
    on, where you win 4^n points when the game lasts 5*2^n rolls.
    Then the expected value will not exist.

    So, let me ask you this: if you were to agree to 24 or
    23, etc. would you change your above argument?
    Surely the "cube skill theory" formulas must assume
    that games don't go arbitrarily long(??).

    No, the cube skill formulas do not assume this.

    So then, the bots using the cube skill formulas should
    be able to handle large cube values. Why don't they?

    Trouble does *not* automatically arise when the games go on arbitrarily
    long, but only when the game go on arbitrarily long *and* the cube value
    gets too high.

    But if you're not willing to take the time to understand
    the artificial example I gave, then you're unlikely to
    understand this example.

    This example is also "artificial". It's not a legal position.

    You're not going to understand anything if you are focused on
    lobbing irrelevant objections instead of actually trying to
    learn something. The purpose of the example is to illustrate
    a point in a simple way. If you understand the simple example
    then you can see how to construct more complicated and realistic
    examples.

    In this case, the conclusion is exactly the conclusion that you
    want to draw...this is a position that proves your point that
    it makes no sense to talk about "cube skill" here if the cube
    is allowed to get arbitrarily high. Why are you complaining
    about this example when it's exactly the type of example that
    can be used to prove your point to other people?

    You never were able to make a case for cube skill except
    by giving real life examples from positions at the last two
    or three rolls in a game.

    You seem to think that my artificial example above is intended
    to prove the existence of cube skill. It's not. It's intended
    to prove *your* point, that cube skill makes no sense. No wonder
    you never get anywhere in these discussions if you can't even tell
    that the other person is agreeing with you, and insist on
    contradicting them just because that's your nature.

    Any by the way, I did make a case for cube skill by solving
    Hypestgammon. Again, you never took the time to study the
    results I got. Probably because it proved you wrong and you
    refuse to understand anything that reveals your errors.

    Just because you can get undefined equities without
    beavers and raccoons doesn't mean you can't get
    undefined equities with them as well.

    This is a nonsensical sentence. My argument was that
    if the reason for getting undefined equities was games
    lasting arbitrarily long and that games without beavers
    and raccoons can also last arbitrarily long, then in all
    those "one cube only" games in Axel's experiment, he
    should have also ran into undefined equities but he
    hasn't.

    Again, the fundamental reason isn't that games last arbitrarily
    long, but that they last arbitrarily long *and* that the cube
    value gets arbitrarily high.

    It means that cube skill theory is completely fine in
    match play, because there is a maximum value that
    the cube can take.

    Theoretically, this is not correct. Even after the cube gets
    past the match value, there is always a chance that your
    opponent may drop, so both players should keep doubling
    and the cube can get just as high as in money games but
    I'll spare you the agravation and won't dwell on this, "Mr.
    gambletician mathematician"...

    You know that your argument is silly here. Cube skill theory
    is completely fine in match play, because if the cube value
    goes higher than the match value, it does not increase the
    payoff, so there is effectively a maximum value that the
    cube can take.

    Then the discussion strayed into undefined equities, etc.

    It "strayed" there because you asked for an explanation of SPP.

    There is nothing wrong with this simple explanation, but
    you asked why the cube value has to be unlimited for the
    expected value not to exist.

    No, I didn't ask that at all. In response to your argument
    that the cube needs to be limited by an arbitrary constant
    like 1024, 4096, etc. I offered that "in real life" and average
    money games last about 23-24 rolls, which puts a natural
    limit on the cube.

    See the example above. The *average* length of a game is 20
    but there is no limit on the cube value because *sometimes*
    the game lasts arbitrarily long.

    To answer that question requires going into more detail
    than the Wikipedia summary provides.

    No, it doesn't. "You need" to show off your mathshitting
    by convoluting the discussion. It's clear in the example
    that there is no problem with expected value because
    the maximum number in a dice roll is limited to 6! Much
    simpler and enough to understand without all you guys'
    "maths and mirrors"...

    That the maximum value is 6 is exactly why the example does
    not illustrate what can happen when the cube value gets arbitrarily
    large. A more complicated example is needed to illustrate that
    point.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Thu May 19 22:04:19 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    What I'm disputing here is that cubeful equities except
    for positions towards the end of games are bogus and
    can be demostrated by experiment like Axel has done
    (just to make me happy:))

    You misinterpret my experiment.

    Since all other numbers mentioned are also averages, in games of
    average 24 moves, the cube can't keep going higher past a natural
    limit. This, if you play a large enough number of games, all possible
    cube values should settle, no??

    No, as Tim has explained with several nice examples by now.

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    No. But the Markov chains helped to clarify my thought and led to
    showing the "beaver instability" against mutant cubing. No more, no
    less.

    The problem is in the so-called "best/perfect/optimum cube strategy
    theory" which can be defeated even by such a crude "mutant" as Axel
    used

    You misinterpret my experiment.

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Thu May 19 22:15:03 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    Axel concluded that beavers and raccoons end in SPP.
    According to you, that's a false conclusion since without
    a limit on the cube, cubeful games without beavers and
    raccoons allowed can also go arbitrarily long.

    Yes, but everything hinges on the frequency of the swings and the
    "power" of the cube. With beavers and mutant cubing the cube on average
    does not increase the stakes by a factor of 2, but more. This is
    crucial.

    Axel

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu May 19 13:20:39 2022
    On May 19, 2022 at 4:55:20 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On May 19, 2022 at 10:14:00 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:

    Theoretically, this is not correct. Even after.....

    ....
    This prevents the trick of offering the cube and
    then claiming the match if your opponent rejects it.

    You can make any rules you want for any reason.
    As I indicated, I made a theoretical comment and
    mainly for the purpose of showing that cube value
    is not intrinsicly related to value of the game.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu May 19 15:28:07 2022
    On May 19, 2022 at 7:40:31 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 5/19/2022 5:13 AM, MK wrote:

    It wasn't obvious neither always nor to all and it still
    isn't. Even to you, only in temporary/easy words but
    not in essence or with any consequences. You just
    make detached statements in order to save the day
    and then continue from where you left off before that.

    No. I have always said this.

    Okay, fine. No big deal. I'll just try to hold you to it.

    I don't draw the same conclusions that you do from
    this obvious fact, but the fact itself is obvious.

    I don't expect you to call the cube skill bullshit. I am
    doing it liberally, enough for all of us. ;) But you can't
    avoid the implications of what you acknowledge. You
    can't keep building more elaborate arguments on top
    of inaccurate equities.

    ..... try to be more useful by making a case for why a
    converged "running total expected value" is needed
    in addition to just adding up the wins and losses for
    each player and leave it at that?

    Suppose I have a fair coin, and I gain $2 whenever .....
    I have to keep flipping it and see what value the answer
    settles down to (or "converges" to, to use the standard
    term).

    You keep explaining what I already said I understand
    but failed to answer my question. Read it again. I was
    asking "what is the need, in real life gamblegammon,
    for a running total expected value to converge"? I don't
    know how else to word my question. Try to understand.

    Of course, it does. It's puts an even more realistic limit
    on the cube value than your artificial 1024, 4096, etc.

    Again, if the game *never* exceeded 20 rolls then you
    would be correct. But the *average* length can be 20 and
    the expected value could still be infinite (i.e., not exist).

    So, I would be correct but not correct. You're making
    conflicting statements but not of matter to dwell on.

    ..... Then the average length of a game will be 20 rolls.

    Now suppose that you win 4 points when the game .....
    Then the expected value will not exist.

    Who cares? Why does it need to exist? Whatever points
    each player wins or loses is the only thing that matters.

    So then, the bots using the cube skill formulas should
    be able to handle large cube values. Why don't they?

    Trouble does *not* automatically arise when the games
    go on arbitrarily long, but only when the game go on
    arbitrarily long *and* the cube value gets too high.

    I'm okay with your clarification.

    This example is also "artificial". It's not a legal position.

    You're not going to understand anything if you are focused
    on lobbing irrelevant objections instead of actually trying to
    learn something.

    Same goes for you...

    The purpose of the example is to illustrate a point in a
    simple way. If you understand the simple example then
    you can see how to construct more complicated and
    realistic examples.

    As you yourself said recently, what we are talking about
    here is applied math to gamblegammon, not theoretical
    math. Your using an example that can't arise in real life
    is useless. Furthermore, it's not simple. If so, and since
    you must necessarily understand your own simple artificial
    example, I dare you to "construct more complicated and
    realistic examples". Let's see how you will do...

    But, my point wasn't even this at all. First you concocted
    an illegal position. Then you did an XG rollout of it, which
    produces some "inaccurate equity estimates". But you
    didn't mind this and went on the disagree with the bot's
    cube decision based on its "inaccurate equity estimates".

    Then with your own "maths and mirrors" calculations, you
    came up with different equities and different correct cube
    decisions. Finally you conluded "Therefore "perfect play"
    doesn't make sense in this position", meaning "this illegal,
    artificial position. What have you accomplished? What are
    the implications of your argument and conclusion? Sorry,
    but I just don't get it. All I see is circular mathshit. :(

    In this case, the conclusion is exactly the conclusion that
    you want to draw...

    Similar to mine but not exactly or even remotely the same.

    this is a position that proves your point that it makes no
    sense to talk about "cube skill" here if the cube is allowed
    to get arbitrarily high. Why are you complaining about this
    example when it's exactly the type of example that can be
    used to prove your point to other people?

    Except that I use it to generalize and say that the entire cube
    skill theory is bullshit. For me, it's either all valid or not at all.
    You, Axel, etc. limit it to only certain positions and otherwise
    call it good. That's where we diverge.

    You never were able to make a case for cube skill except
    by giving real life examples from positions at the last two
    or three rolls in a game.

    You seem to think that my artificial example above is
    intended to prove the existence of cube skill. It's not.
    It's intended to prove *your* point, that cube skill makes
    no sense.

    I should be elated to hear this but I'm not because I know
    that you don't mean it. It's just another temporary, detached
    statement from you that you won't hold yourself to. You'll
    just go back making your old arguments as though you've
    never said this.

    Any by the way, I did make a case for cube skill by solving
    Hypestgammon. Again, you never took the time to study
    the results I got. Probably because it proved you wrong and
    you refuse to understand anything that reveals your errors.

    I had looked at the results and had responded to it, although
    with a long delay, because of our misunderstanding. What
    you did was through the same calculations used for equities
    that you acknowledged as "inaccurate by unknown amounts".

    You need to do a real life experiment by a "cubeful training"
    of a bot and see if you and that bot would come up with the
    same equities. Then you will have proven that you solved it.

    You know that your argument is silly here. Cube skill theory
    is completely fine in match play, because if the cube value
    goes higher than the match value, it does not increase the
    payoff, so there is effectively a maximum value that the
    cube can take.

    Yes but you need that "cube skill" to know this, don't you? Or
    else, a player can drop a theoretically allowed and correct
    double past the game value because of lack of cube skill...

    Anyway, you are right though that this isn't worth dwelling on.

    Then the discussion strayed into undefined equities, etc.

    It "strayed" there because you asked for an explanation of
    SPP.

    It strayed before I asked anything about it. SPP should have
    never been mentioned durins the experiment. I continuously
    objected that it didn't apply to gamblegammon.

    And also, I didn't ask for "an explanation of SPP" which I had
    sufficiently understood. What I asked was how Axel and you
    were using it in relation to gamblegammon becaus it doen't
    exist in gamblegammon. Only some rare similar sequences
    occur within games that don't amount to SPP by any definition.

    See the example above. The *average* length of a game is 20
    but there is no limit on the cube value because *sometimes*
    the game lasts arbitrarily long.

    For the purpose that I had suggested the experiment, it doesn't
    matter. Especially in "real life" which I keep stressing. In fact,
    during Axel's first 5,000+3,000+3,000 games everything was
    fine in the cube value stats that he had posted.

    Only when he started extrapolating with Markov chains that
    things went berzerk, most likely because he made incorrect
    assumptions. Then, since he couldn't post a tally of actual
    cube values encountered, he switched to posting "average
    game values" and started talking about SPP...

    That the maximum value is 6 is exactly why the example
    does not illustrate what can happen when the cube value
    gets arbitrarily large. A more complicated example is
    needed to illustrate that point.

    It clearly says: ".....as n grows, the average will almost surely
    converge to the expected value, a fact known as the strong
    law of large numbers".

    Okay, so the reader needs to at least know what "converge"
    means, if not "strong law of large numbers" (which I can't
    say that I know much about myself). In your example, you
    were explaining that the value will conver until a very large
    cube occurs, that if you keep playing it will converge again
    until an even larger cube occurs, and so on... Isn't that the
    weak law of large numbers? That it will repeatedly and
    periodically converge to "some value"? If so, what's wrong
    with accepting those "some values"?

    Again, I was only after the actual points won or lost after
    an only robotically possible large number of games and I
    repeatedly expressed during the experiment that I didn't
    "give a shit about SPP". For my purpose, expected value's
    converging didn't matter. (Neither could you offer a valid
    argument as to why should it matter.)

    On the other side, after Axel became obsessed with SPP,
    he started saying that he only cared about SPP from that
    point on. But that's okay because at least the experiment
    was done, even if not quite correctly, and we all can use
    the results for our own arguments.

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Thu May 19 16:07:01 2022
    On May 19, 2022 at 2:04:21 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    What I'm disputing here is that cubeful equities except
    for positions towards the end of games are bogus and
    can be demostrated by experiment like Axel has done
    (just to make me happy:))

    You misinterpret my experiment.

    You called it "Murat mutant experiment". Clearly you were
    trying to do what I had suggested (even if you ended up
    not doing take >0% part correctly).

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    No.

    How do you know?

    But the Markov chains helped to clarify my thought and
    led to showing the "beaver instability" against mutant
    cubing. No more, no less.

    Your first statement is your business but you can't say
    "no more, no less"! You don't know that. You didn't keep
    your game files for anyone to look at to see if there was
    anything more or less in them. You weren't even capable
    of doing a clean, proper experiment.

    But, as I said before, it's never too late. You already have
    the tools. Do the experiment again with real games only.
    Without any Markov, etc. "maths and mirrors". Make sure
    you save the games in a practical format to share with us
    and let's see what comes out of it.

    If you are not willing to do the work, share your scripts so
    that we can do it. Unless you may be afraid to expose that
    your scripts were flawed to begin with.

    The problem is in the so-called "best/perfect/optimum
    cube strategy theory" which can be defeated even by
    such a crude "mutant" as Axel used

    You misinterpret my experiment.

    Perhaps you mean to say that this wasn't your intention
    but you did the experiment that I had suggested for my
    own purposes. After any experiment is done, anyone
    can interpret the results any way they want... I was fair.
    I never intended to nor did "use you" but to "utilise you".
    And I do sincerely appreciate that you have done it. Now
    if I can only get you to do it again and better this time... ;)

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Thu May 19 16:29:43 2022
    On May 19, 2022 at 2:15:05 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    Axel concluded that beavers and raccoons end in SPP.
    According to you, that's a false conclusion since without
    a limit on the cube, cubeful games without beavers and
    raccoons allowed can also go arbitrarily long.

    Yes, but everything hinges on the frequency of the swings
    and the "power" of the cube. With beavers and mutant
    cubing the cube on average does not increase the stakes
    by a factor of 2, but more. This is crucial.

    Okay, so with no beavers SPP is much less likely. Now,
    try to look at it from my point of purpose, which is not
    about SPP but about debunking "cube skill theory".

    Beavers and raccoons supposedly require even more
    more cube skill than simple doubles. After debunkin
    raccon skill and beaver skill, is it still all that neccesry
    to debunk simples doubles skill?

    This remind me of a folk story about "Nasreddin Hodja
    and the stork". He thinks that he stork's exaggeratedly
    long beak and legs must be defects of nature. He takes
    a pair of scissors and clips off its long beak and legs.
    He then looks at it and says: “Now you look like a bird.”

    As you keep clipping the defective parts of the "cube
    skill theory" maybe it will look like a bird but of a much
    reduced size... :)

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 20 08:12:02 2022
    On 5/19/2022 6:28 PM, MK wrote:
    Who cares? Why does it need to exist? Whatever points
    each player wins or loses is the only thing that matters.

    Your initial question was whether Axel would call it SPP
    if the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match. You said,
    "I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP in the gamblegammon
    context." These are the questions I was addressing. "Whatever
    points each player wins or loses" is *not* the only thing that
    matters *if what you are trying to understand is what Axel
    means*.

    You're now digressing into the question of whether SPP is
    relevant to backgammon. I don't expect that discussion to go
    anywhere. If you still don't understand *what Axel means* then
    I can continue to explain. If you now understand what he means
    and just disagree, then my job is done here.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri May 20 06:48:37 2022
    On Friday, May 20, 2022 at 1:12:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    ....
    You're now digressing into the question of whether SPP is
    relevant to backgammon.
    ...

    The SPP is obviously irrelevant to backgammon.
    For match backgammon, the irrelevance is clear.
    For money backgammon, table stakes always operate because no one
    has more than (say) a trillion dollars.
    Once you acknowledge that the sums of money are finite, the "paradox" melts away.
    In fact, since money is clearly finite, the whole "paradox" is just rather silly anyway.
    It's a meme that's just massively overrated.

    I'd like to present the Epstein Chocolate Paradox.
    Suppose that Cadbury's Whole Nut chocolate is available to everyone and doesn't cost anything.
    Assume it tastes great and is very healthy, and never leads to obesity.
    Assume also that 10% of British people walking in the streets are continuously gorging
    themselves on Cadbury's Whole Nut chocolate. Then 1) The people who are continously
    wolfing down chocolate while they are talking and walking look disgusting.
    And also 2) People get jealous of other people who eat enormous amounts of chocolate
    without gaining weight.
    Therefore people are getting jealous of people who seem disgusting.
    This is clearly paradoxical because disgusting people arouse disgust by definition and
    disgust is not really compatible with jealousy.

    How is the Epstein Chocolate Paradox resolved?
    Simply by pointing out that the properties of chocolate posed by the problem don't all hold.
    It isn't free, it isn't healthy, and it does lead to obesity.

    It's the same for the resolution of the SPP. Money is finite and that's an essential property
    of money. So speculating about the jolly paradox we'd get if money was infinite is kind of silly
    like my chocolate paradox.

    Paul

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to murat@compuplus.net on Sat May 21 00:01:41 2022
    MK <murat@compuplus.net> writes:

    On May 19, 2022 at 2:04:21 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    No.

    How do you know?

    It is called "math", you know, and it can be used to prove things.

    Axel

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Fri May 20 15:55:42 2022
    On Friday, May 20, 2022 at 11:01:43 PM UTC+1, Axel Reichert wrote:
    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    On May 19, 2022 at 2:04:21 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    No.

    How do you know?
    It is called "math", you know, and it can be used to prove things.

    But, unfortunately, I don't see it being used to prove the non-existence
    of odd perfect numbers. In fact, I doubt that that will even be proved
    during my lifetime.

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Fri May 20 17:49:16 2022
    On May 20, 2022 at 4:01:43 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    On May 19, 2022 at 2:04:21 PM UTC-6, Axel Reichert wrote:

    MK <mu...@compuplus.net> writes:

    If Axel had played 10,000,000 actual games instead of
    only 10,000 and using Markov Chains to extrapolate to
    5,000,000,000 games, I wonder if "things would settle"
    better in an experiment closer to real life..?

    No.

    How do you know?

    It is called "math", you know, and it can be used to prove
    things.

    Well, okay, if one is capable of math, I guess...

    But when you were telling about you assumptions about
    beavers and raccoons in your Markov chains, I had asked
    you: ".....will I be right to understand that Gnubg will never
    double with its MVC < 50% and will also never beaver with
    its MVC < 50%?" and you had answered: "As a crude first
    approximation, yes".

    So, your Markov chains were based not only "crude first
    approximation/s" but your "crude first approximation/s"
    were clearly flawed. Garbage in, garbage out. Bleh... :(

    Since you are not able to use math to prove prove things,
    why don't you do something you may be able to do better
    and just let the mutant and Gnubg play a million games,
    and just count the potatoes...??

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri May 20 17:16:17 2022
    On May 20, 2022 at 6:12:07 AM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 5/19/2022 6:28 PM, MK wrote:

    Who cares? Why does it need to exist? Whatever points
    each player wins or loses is the only thing that matters.

    Your initial question was whether Axel would call it SPP
    if the cube goes to 16 or 32 in a 25-point match. You said,
    "I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP in the
    gamblegammon context."

    Before that question, I had written: "The cube can go "too
    high" in match play also, depending on what one considers
    too high relative to match length". It was to contrast cube
    going "too high" in money games vs in match play.

    As the regurgitating idiot that you are, who can't read and
    can't understand what is asked, you responded: "No. The
    essence of SPP is that the expected value does not exist.
    When there is a maximum possible value (here, 25 points)
    then the expected value always exists".

    To that, I had replied, as you partially quoted: "I wasn't
    asking if it would be SPP but if "Axel would call it SPP".
    I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP in the
    gamblegammon context". Why did you skip the part that
    shows you had "essentially" given an irrelevant answer?

    These are the questions I was addressing.

    Much has been said since that question which was only
    one of dozens of other questions that I had asked, like
    this one immediately following it: "Also, would it make a
    difference if it were a 10,000-point or 4,000,000,000-point
    match? Again, I'm just trying to understand how cube and
    SPP can be linked in any way". You couldn't answer that
    one, like most of the others, could you? Well, it's not too
    late if you want to try...

    "Whatever points each player wins or loses" is *not*
    the only thing that matters *if what you are trying to
    understand is what Axel means*.

    I never said anything to make such a connection. But as
    you are a pathetic, inferiority complexed loser, you need
    to create a strawman in order to confound issues and
    avoid answering the question that you quoted at the
    very top of this post. Again, it's not too late fi you want
    to give it a try...

    You're now digressing into the question of whether SPP
    is relevant to backgammon.

    No. I'm not digressing. I had declared my opinion that it
    is not relevant/applicable in gamblegammon when Axel
    first mentioned it. But you may say I'm "pursuing" it, even
    though SPP has never been an important issue for me.

    I don't expect that discussion to go anywhere.

    Especially not if you ignore my entire, long last post and
    save face by resorting back to an old question which you
    had already failed to answer. That's okay. You don't have
    much to offer other than regurgitated mathshit anyway.

    If you still don't understand *what Axel means* then I
    can continue to explain. If you now understand what
    he means and just disagree, then my job is done here.

    As an anal professor, I' sure you will explain and again
    the same irrelevant nonsense whether anyone asks or
    not but you won't be able to answer specific/focused
    questions. I apologize if I slapped you too hard for you
    to resort to this sorry ass, worthless post of yours. When
    the dizziness goes away, I'm sure you'll be back for more. :(

    MK

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 21 11:01:41 2022
    On 5/20/2022 8:16 PM, MK wrote:
    To that, I had replied, as you partially quoted: "I wasn't
    asking if it would be SPP but if "Axel would call it SPP".
    I'm trying to understand what he means by SPP in the
    gamblegammon context". Why did you skip the part that
    shows you had "essentially" given an irrelevant answer?

    I did not give an irrelevant answer. I answered the question
    of whether Axel would call it SPP, and I answered the question
    of what Axel means by SPP in the "gamblegammon" context.

    However, as usual, I'm making these posts not for your benefit
    (since that is obviously a lost cause) but for the benefit of
    other r.g.b. readers, and there isn't anything further I can
    think of that would benefit r.g.b. readers in this thread.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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